The future has a lot more heat pumps and a lot fewer gas and oil burners.

So you could just make the decision for the next 50 years and go heat pump in the most BIFL way you can. Maybe you have reason to expect the best heat pump options are a few years away and want to keep the oil going a bit longer.

But I expect your future is heat pump, seems like a good time to plan for that transition.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/22/climate/heat-pumps-extreme-cold.html

Also, I assume you meant “upgrade your electrical panel” for a heat pump. If you just had to run a new circuit, that would be much easier and cheaper.

I'd just get a new tank. Your oil company should be able to help with getting the fuel out of your existing tank. IME, oil burners are seriously BIFL. You need a new injector every few years, but that's basically it. I had one in the 90s that was 40 years old when I got it, never gave me any trouble.

Yeah, sorry, that is what I meant. We have to upgrade to a 200 amp service.

I work in the gas industry. Whenever you switch, don't switch from oil to gas; switch from oil to electric. The electric models are superior now -- more powerful, easier to maintain, and of course WAY less indoor air pollution.

If oil/maintenance is not horribly expensive where you are, tank replace only.

I switched to gas a few years ago to reduce maintenance and fuel cost but already had gas line.

Electric heat pumps are improving and starting to include resistive heat for colder conditions. I'd not invest in them now necessarily, but in a few years.

If you are planning on doing solar at some point, then.

Tank for now. I've had heat pumps in 2 houses, I can't stand them.

I’d vote electric heat pump. If you want to get an electric car in the future, you’ll need 200 amp service. It would be the best investment for your future.

You may want that for your EV and induction stove, as well.

I’ve had a bunch of HVAC guys come out to give me estimates and most of them are really pushing gas. Is there a reason for this? Are they getting kickbacks from the gas company to get customers to start service?

I think the first questions should be where do you live, and how much do you normally spend on fuel a year?

Next - approx cost of the other things. Gas line, panel, each system, new tank.

Personally, since you don't already have gas in the house, I think I would avoid that route.

As others have said, upgrading your panel has other benefits that help future proof your home.

Another thing to consider is parts availability. If something breaks on your furnace today, how hard would it be to find a replacement part?

Another thought - oil furnaces can usually run on minimal electricity. If you loose power, a small generator can power an oil furnace. You would need a much larger generator to do that with a heat pump.

Possibly; some towns allow those sorts of cross-subsidies and some towns ban it. But two things are even more likely: (1) they are getting a higher profit on the gas units right now; (2) the guys you've been talking to are really good at installing gas furnaces, and are more confident that they can install the gas furnace correctly the first time. The biggest financial risk for most HVAC guys is breaking something when they install it -- now they need to pay out of their own pocket to fix it -- so they tend to recommend things that they know they can do, instead of branching out.

HVAC people just really hate heat pumps. I ran into the same problem for my rental which is basically the poster case for it (small size, well insulated, Midwestern area)

They never have specific answers to anything. "It just can't do it."

They don't have any response when I say that these are used all over Scandinavia without problem.

Unless the person spoke with has installed one and had specific problems that they can articulate, you can ignore them.

That makes a lot of sense.

If in northern US, they suggest you combine your heat pump with a furnace to cover, keeping the house warm under 32f. After building an addition in 2008, I went with a early 2 stage design heat pump in Massachusetts (at that time only single stage available and would not work under 32f) While is was OK, had problems holding the house at 68f when temp went into single digits not to mention an $800-$1000, electric bill for December to January. Ended up going back to oil.

If you have gas available, it's more reliable than oil.

We now use a pellet stove to heat an 1800 sqft cape to 72f, with the oil as backup when not home. This year, we used around 70 gallons of oil since September. Pellets cost us around $350 per ton, and I expect to run 3.5 tons by May. Est savings over oil of $2500.

https://www.pelletheat.org/compare-fuel-costs

This. But also heat pumps can be finicky, so if it is close, consider that. We had an installer ruin one and they wouldn't fix it.

I would get a heat pump. And since you're redoing electrical, consider doing it in a way that will make it easy to switch to solar power down the road, if that's an option. You might also be switching to EV down the road. In my house even 200 amps wouldn't be enough if we had an EV, but we have a big house with tenants.

I’m an HVAC guy, hvac guys push gas because they don’t understand electric. Get 1 or more Mitsubishi electric heat pump systems. They’re about as BIFL as it comes. Personally I have natural gas with a BIFL boiler system and I’m putting in 4 Mitsubishi heat pumps and keeping the gas as backup heat only.

Fix what you have first as a tank leak indicates the system is working just fine.

I see a lot of love here for electric systems, but they all ignore the elephant with electric. Power outages.

Figure out the cost difference between replacing with electric and patching/replacing the tank. Put that difference into Solar + Battery. Bank the money you save on electric to finance the new heat pump.

I cannot believe I’m hearing people recommend electric heat pumps. It would cost me more to heat my house with electric than gas so I’m sticking to gas.

Please check my math based on my last bill.

Used 77 therms of gas @ .5948 per therm for a total of $45.81

77 therms is = to 2256 kWh?

I pay .0673 per kWh

2256 kWh x .0673 is $164.68

Now include an efficiency increase going from %82 to %100

Is $135.04 for last month

Please anyone double check this.

You didn’t say where you live, if you live in a place where it’s consistently below 20F I think I’d still with natural gas. As heat pumps begin to struggle as it gets that cold and electric is expensive.

I upgraded two years ago from a 1946 American standard oil converted to gas boiler to a newer boiler. I didn’t go electric because it’d cost 3-4x the price to heat my house in the winter.

Heat pumps are supreme in places with a mild winter or no winter. If you do go heat pump where it can get sub 20 for awhile then I’d recommend have an auxiliary heating system installed.

I had an American standard boiler, oil converted to gas from 1946. I replaced it in 2021, it still worked great but the pilot broke and they dont make it anymore. I probably could’ve found one that “worked” and fixed the system but I priced out a new one at $13k. So you’re might have some solid life left in it.

A huge benefit of upgrading is the new one brought my gas price from $600 down to $250/month in the winter. So taking in the 7 months I use it a year it’s take about 6 years to pay for itself. It also requires less maintenance (we have radiators and it self regulates the water intake and drainage).

Seems about right when I did the math two years ago electric heat would’ve cost me around 3x the cost.

My state also raised electric cost 65% this year. So we would’ve been extra screwed

Technically you’d want to assume efficiency of ~150-210% because heat pumps can move more than 1kW of heat energy for every 1kW used. It can be even higher in the fall or spring months when it’s mild outside.

However, you’re right that it depends on individual circumstances for the prices of electricity and natural gas. It also depends whether the user has or wants solar.

We’re in the Chicago suburbs and it made sense for us to go with a heat pump because we were also installing solar. It wasn’t much more expensive to boost our installed capacity and I think we’ll be able to get to net zero utility bills by disconnecting natural gas in the coming years.

Yeah, I’m in VA so relatively mild winters. It gets below freezing but not super cold for super long. Still, we are pretty spoiled to warm oil heat.

Thanks for chiming in with additional info, still trying to learn more about heat pumps as this is something I’ve been installing more of as an electrician.

Living in the northeast US it says natural gas is my best opinion. So at what temperature range does the heat pump become the better option?

How much is a new oil tank? New furnaces have a 10-20yr life span

Owner of an HVAC company here.

New Ductless heat pumps are pretty amazing & can put out 100% capacity well below zero. You can have one outdoor unit with as many as 5 indoor units, all independently controlled, so now your house will be “zoned” as well.

That said, the installing company is VERY important. Read the company’s reviews & get the 10-12 year extended warranty. Well worth it. Probably stick with Daikin, Mitsubishi or Fujitsu as far as manufacturers go. They’re all great. The brand of the equipment is not nearly as important as the company installing it.

Natural gas furnaces are great as well, but it is an outgoing technology.

For heat pump systems (ductless or ducted) there are Federal Tax Credits this year & usually local utility rebates as well.

Good luck with your home comfort journey!

When you say electric you're talking a heat pump right? No way an electric resistance furnace is cheaper than anything.

Technology Connections just did an amazing video discussing the issue of electrifying old houses. He makes a pretty solid argument that 100amp service can be just fine for heavier electrical demands if it’s actively managed. A dumb breaker panel will struggle, but a smart one can allocate the available 100amps as needed (i.e. turn off the water heater for a bit when you run your stove)

https://youtu.be/CVLLNjSLJTQ

Edit: forgot the link

I just recently replaced a gas furnace/AC for $8000 in western PA. I gets pretty cold here much of the time and I already had gas lines to the house. Maybe get the tank replaced for now and then do a lot of research before spending a large amount of money and time? Get a lot of estimates. It's crazy how much prices can differ. I don't know - it's a huge decision for sure. Wish you luck whatever you decide.

I have 4 heatpumps in my place a big one 8kw in the lounge and small ones in 3 bedrooms. To supplement log fires.

They don't really like very cold weather, and will go into defrost cycle if below -4 degrees C, which means they blow cold air and gurgle for 10 minutes until they start up warm again.

They do need servicing every year or so and checking on the refrigerant levels.

They are surprisingly convenient and cheap to run.

They are a bit noisy, and need be sited to blow air indirectly at beds.

They are aircon for summer too, and work well to cool the house down.

They don't work in power-cuts, so if you have winter black-outs you are out of luck

Ive only had them in for 3 years so can't comment on longevity.

I like them, but would have preferred a radiator system, but that would be $50k where I live. I looked at central air/heat, but you need more ceiling space than I have, and the cost was prohibitive. little heat pumps with simple back to back installation are not super expensive. Should have done it years ago.