I know we all want to do a better job of reducing our carbon footprint, and I have no doubt that you’ve done your research with this, but the embodied energy it takes to produce lithium iron phosphate (or equivalent) batteries varies wildly for a bunch of reasons.

Per the attached source (below, emphasis mine): Virtually every feature of the fuel cycle for conventional cars is well understood and narrowly bounded, significantly monitored if not tightly regulated and largely assumption-free. That’s not the case for EVs.

For example, one review of 50 academic studies found estimates for embodied emissions to fabricate a single EV battery ranged from a low of about eight tons to as high as 20 tons of CO2. Another recent technical analysis put the range at about four to 14 tons. The high end of those ranges is nearly as much CO2 as is produced by the lifetime of fuel burned by an efficient conventional car. Again, that’s before the EV is delivered to a customer and driven its first mile.

The uncertainties come from inherent — and likely unresolvable — variabilities in both the quantity and type of energy used in the battery fuel cycle with factors that depend on geography and process choices, many often proprietary. Analyses of the embodied energy show a range from two to six barrels of oil (in energy-equivalent terms) is used to fabricate a battery that can store the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. Thus, any calculation of embodied emissions for an EV battery is an estimate based on myriad assumptions. The fact is, no one can measure today’s or predict tomorrow’s EV carbon dioxide “mileage.”

I do believe you have good intentions here, but I wouldn’t be so confident in your calculations. I’m in the energy industry (utility power) and I have very little faith that this technology is going to solve all of our issues. We’re going to end up with MORE waste, because these vehicles don’t last as long, and in order to recapture a fraction of lithium, you have to incinerate these cells, which produce more carbon.

In addition, I believe that the supply chain for lithium is going to get just as greasy as it became with oil. There will be a handful of countries with vast amounts of lithium that will likely control the price, similar to OPEC.

I’m not going to buy an EV any time soon for various other reasons as well, primarily the fact that there aren’t enough charging stations, and the cost for me to assume the change from my conventional gas vehicle is prohibitive. The only real solution to reduce your footprint is to simply travel less. Which, for some, is not an option. So here we are with this magic pill. I don’t believe in it quite yet.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/22/the-tough-calculus-of-emissions-and-the-future-of-evs/amp/