buried_lede OP t1_iyb6ax0 wrote on November 30, 2022 at 2:23 AM

Reply to comment by yodamonkey1 in Wholesale price of gas paid by power plants by buried_lede

Ok, skimmed one of the Alg futures lists. The power plants won’t be paying that, fyi, but I want to look at those some more.

yodamonkey1 t1_iyb6o65 wrote on November 30, 2022 at 2:26 AM

Sure they do. Look at the Nepool power prices…product code NEP on that report.

buried_lede OP t1_iycaqlb wrote on November 30, 2022 at 9:34 AM

How much pure speculation do you think is involved in some of those futures prices?

What if we called their bluff? Is New England a big enough market to ripple back to the well head and get a redo?

It works when there is a Covid lock down in China and factories slow down. If there is a good amount of pure speculative bullshit in the prices, there is a certain amount of wiggle room. Why can’t we squeeze their margins?

(They’re probably trading their own futures. Shell Oil does that- it has a large energy trading unit)

yodamonkey1 t1_iycp8mq wrote on November 30, 2022 at 12:42 PM

We are severely constrained in terms of getting molecules to be sent our way. Our power grid is heavily reliant on natural gas. We have to compete with Europe who is paying a premium for LNG shipments. The risk is Europe and NE get cold and LNG prices double to hit their European price cap. Double those ICE prices I sent and you can see we are in quite a pickle. There are no bluffs you can call unless you can convince people to not run their boilers/heaters/lights during the winter.

As for residential vs power plant price differences, the base price is generally what you see on ice +/- whatever adders the local distribution companies might charge.

buried_lede OP t1_iydh5q9 wrote on November 30, 2022 at 4:19 PM

I’m half kidding, but otherwise, Hm. We know all that, we know a lot of that needs to be checked and we know we need to know a lot more about power pricing in this state and ISO than we do. There was a study that concluded a few years ago that prices in this ISO could not be entirely explained by the reasons we’ve been given for years. You know at least one of the companies that owns a power plant in CT has pipeline and natural gas interests too, it’s a subsidiary. There is a lot more to know.