Wholesale price of gas paid by power plants

Submitted by buried_lede t3_z8a10z in Connecticut

The Energy information Agency (eia) does a monthly survey of the wholesale price of natural gas sold to power plants.

This one is only updated to August, but the price has come down to a national average of $8.00+, I read elsewhere

So power plants can buy on different terms, locking in a price, but this should give us an idea.

Keep in mind too that we are buying liquified natural gas (LNG) too, to ensure enough winter supplies, brought by container ship and LNG is more expensive.

People should be aware that in general wholesale natural gas prices in CT, at the pipeline, are decidedly not the highest in the nation. I have checked these charts from time to time.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_a_EPG0_PEU_DMcf_m.htm

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Swede577 t1_iyaoqnj wrote

Here is the EIA's dashboard for New England with real time gas and electricity prices.

https://www.eia.gov/dashboard/newengland/electricity

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learner77 t1_iyarp1w wrote

That link is really cool - thanks for posting it!

​

the interactive infrastructure map (https://eia.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5395ae9a72a04064932c1c11efc1db3e&webmap=fccfa2e687784012b9c7b26d5ebe801f&center=-70.303853,44.203332&scale=2500000&showLayers=Battery%20Storage%20Power%20Plants;Biomass%20Power%20Plants;Coal%20Power%20Plants;Geothermal%20Power%20Plants;Hydroelectric%20Power%20Plants;Natural%20Gas%20Power%20Plants;Nuclear%20Power%20Plants;Petroleum%20Power%20Plants;Pumped%20Storage%20Power%20Plants;Solar%20Power%20Plants;Wind%20Power%20Plants;Other%20Power%20Plants;Electric%20Transmission%20Lines)

is also interesting. Massachusetts is really kicking Connecticut’s butt in terms of number of commercial solar installs.

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mweint18 t1_iyaxixz wrote

Related to the LNG purchasing, congress could pass an exemption on LNG ships for the Jones act or pass some sort of incentive to build modern US-made and flagged LNG tankers. Right now LNG goes from tx or louisiana to canada and then to New England since it cannot legally go direct from TX to New England. The only two LNG tankers that can do it legally have 5% of the capacity of modern LNG tankers. Solving that will lower the price of LNG.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyaz1x9 wrote

I’m ok with a narrow exemption, maybe temporary, for those tankers only. A total suspension of the Jones Act would decimate the American maritime industry. A NY tugboat operator explained that to us here one day.

But yeah, an exemption for LNG tankers. It doesn’t seem like it will harm anyone. I agree with you.

As for LNG, I haven’t looked up how much we use. It has to be a minuscule percentage compared to pipeline gas. So, I am dubious of any claims that it inflates my bill by even a penny per Klwh, not that I’ve read that claim anywhere. I just don’t want to assume, oh, so that will double my bill - uh, no.

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adultdaycare81 t1_iyb62g7 wrote

Absolutely. Such a BS protectionist law that a few maritime lobbyists keep on the books.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyc61wi wrote

Not BS, it’s a really good law but just not for oil and gas.

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adultdaycare81 t1_iyck6hh wrote

I understand the need to maintain US shipping capacity in case of a war. But there are other ways to do it. Doing it for Nat gas is dumb

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb2iz3 wrote

For winter contracts, New England gas IS the most expensive in the country by far.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyb45jl wrote

The chart I linked is problematic. I noticed it is focused on the summer months when peak power is an issue in most places. I’ll look for other data.

I kind of doubt it is the highest wholesale price in the country tho. Anyway, I’ll look for the data.

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb52bf wrote

It is the highest. Search for ALG. The prices are in $/mmbtu

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/142

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buried_lede OP t1_iyb6ax0 wrote

Ok, skimmed one of the Alg futures lists. The power plants won’t be paying that, fyi, but I want to look at those some more.

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb6o65 wrote

Sure they do. Look at the Nepool power prices…product code NEP on that report.

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buried_lede OP t1_iycaqlb wrote

How much pure speculation do you think is involved in some of those futures prices?

What if we called their bluff? Is New England a big enough market to ripple back to the well head and get a redo?

It works when there is a Covid lock down in China and factories slow down. If there is a good amount of pure speculative bullshit in the prices, there is a certain amount of wiggle room. Why can’t we squeeze their margins?

(They’re probably trading their own futures. Shell Oil does that- it has a large energy trading unit)

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yodamonkey1 t1_iycp8mq wrote

We are severely constrained in terms of getting molecules to be sent our way. Our power grid is heavily reliant on natural gas. We have to compete with Europe who is paying a premium for LNG shipments. The risk is Europe and NE get cold and LNG prices double to hit their European price cap. Double those ICE prices I sent and you can see we are in quite a pickle. There are no bluffs you can call unless you can convince people to not run their boilers/heaters/lights during the winter.

As for residential vs power plant price differences, the base price is generally what you see on ice +/- whatever adders the local distribution companies might charge.

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buried_lede OP t1_iydh5q9 wrote

I’m half kidding, but otherwise, Hm. We know all that, we know a lot of that needs to be checked and we know we need to know a lot more about power pricing in this state and ISO than we do. There was a study that concluded a few years ago that prices in this ISO could not be entirely explained by the reasons we’ve been given for years. You know at least one of the companies that owns a power plant in CT has pipeline and natural gas interests too, it’s a subsidiary. There is a lot more to know.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyb5dke wrote

Look at this one where the city gate price is $14+and the price for power plants is $8+

I’ll look for another data set

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_SCT_m.htm

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb7r1z wrote

I know we don’t want to admit defeat as nutmeggers but we are hosed when it comes to power and gas supply in the winter. Our summer prices are nothing special compared to Texas, but the Nepool winter future contract prices are 3x higher than ercot summer.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyaw5wm wrote

And here is Eversource’s plain simple description of how they get the new price from suppliers ( of course, no explanation for why it’s higher than everyone else’s )

“ Under the state law that deregulated electricity, utilities like Eversource bid twice a year for power supplies, award contracts to low bidders, and pass along the costs to customers without marking them up. The Standard Service price changes on January 1 and July 1”

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1Enthusiast t1_iyan6ky wrote

Nobody gives a shit. If they didn’t demonize the whole industry we wouldn’t be buying anything and every American could be having a nice warm, affordable winter

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CaptServo t1_iyda60c wrote

So we have to be nice to them to get a fair price?

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1Enthusiast t1_iydpro9 wrote

Prob not, just produce domestically instead if buying it abroad

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CaptServo t1_iydsaqo wrote

Domestic production of petroleum products exceeds domestic consumption, and a majority of what is imported comes from our friendly neighbors to the north.

Even if we produced 200% of consumption, we would not be isolated from global market shocks, because the price of selling abroad (plus transportation) would be more attractive than selling domestically.

Imagine if your neighbor kept chickens, and sold you cheap eggs because he doesn't have to spend a lot of time or money delivering them (you're right next door). Then one day there's a guy on the other side of town willing to pay more for them, as many as he has. The neighbor has to buy a truck to deliver and gas it up and so on, but even without those costs your egg price will go up.

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