Honestly I have no idea, I get alerts and updates from a local guy and he posts when the space weather is looking good. He's always talking about things like "need the field strength to shift our way", "this will probably be good for the northern hemisphere but we won't see it" or "the Bz is too far north" or something. I did my undergrad in astrophysics and I still don't understand aurora, when Darren says it's on, I go 🤣