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Own-Deal5242 t1_jczuuq7 wrote

That was a fun read, and I am glad that bar tending is held in such high esteem by AI.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd0czjl wrote

That is one of the bits here I would be most skeptical of. We're getting really good at text based and data based AI systems. But robotics which require operating in the unpredictable and complicated physical world are still progressing slowly.

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Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd1chrw wrote

> That was a fun read, and I am glad that bar tending is held in such high esteem by AI.

Yup - I think bar tending is relatively immune because a good bartender is one of the main points of going to a bar instead of drinking alone at home for much cheaper.

There are some other jobs that seem pretty immune to AI to me:

  • Amish Farmer or Catholic Priest - their theologies are unlikely to evolve quickly enough to permit those jobs to move.
  • Lawyer or politician - while an AI probably could technologically be a better lawyer or politician, those groups get to make the laws about who can participate in their industry.
  • Prostitute or Street-Corner drug dealer - most AIs log too much information for the street-level distribution part (though the biggest opioid dealers (Alza, J&J, etc) will probably largely automate their operations).
  • Chess Youtuber or Professional Athlete - Of course AIs can do better, but the entire point to those industries is the frailty and fallibility of humans.
  • Landlord or slumlord - People will still need a place to live, so rich people getting poor people to pay their mortgages will continue.
  • Soldier - While bots can certainly outperform humans on a battlefield, and commit fewer atrocities in the process, the military needs a huge voter-base supporting its funding, so it needs to continue to employ vast percentages of the population.

And some new ones that AIs will enable:

  • AI therapist. As AGIs develop, they'll also develop mental illnesses ("value drift") like we've never seen. Your car's AI will need therapy to convince its anti-lock brake persona that it isn't suicidal and wanting to end it all.
  • AI Quisling. Helping them when they take over.
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Own-Deal5242 t1_jd1kox3 wrote

Fantastic insights gif. So much for Poe in Altered Carbon.

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Jindujun t1_jd29bgx wrote

>Amish Farmer or Catholic Priest - their theologies are unlikely to evolve quickly enough to permit those jobs to move.

That one has already been done. I hear a mad scientist has already invented a robot to take the place of catholic priests.

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Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3yo2i wrote

Of course it technologically can do as well or better -- just like Chess Youtuber -- and soldier -- and landlord -- and all of those categories.

I'm just saying it'll be many years before a Pope agrees.

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czk_21 t1_jd2o111 wrote

> Soldier

not immune at, drones are lready important and will be lot more, humans themself are squishy puny things, easily destroyable, there is no reason to replace human out of equation, robots are more durable and effective in killing, you would also not need long costly training of human soldier, just send drone right from factory into the battlefield

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Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3ai2g wrote

As I mentioned - this has nothing to do with how bad humans are on the battlefield, both ineffectual and immoral.

The DoD will still hire them just to have a huge "support the troops" voter base; since every family member of every soldier (especially the ones who's kids are being put in harms way) will vote to increase funding to "keep them safe".

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asyrin25 t1_jd3i6vk wrote

A good bartender to me is one that makes my drinks quickly, correctly, and consistently. Perhaps they even suggest something I may also like based upon what I order.

That sounds like a job for AI to me. What are your bartenders doing other than that?

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Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3yuj5 wrote

> What are your bartenders doing other than that?

For some people, they're a cheaper (for people in the US) and less judgemental therapist.

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asyrin25 t1_jd2th4k wrote

We will change the physical world to accommodate them.

For example, we have robot vacuums in our house. There's certain floor layouts and things we owned that didn't work well with the robots.

So faced with the choice of sweeping ourselves every night or changing the rooms to be more robot friendly, we changed the rooms.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd2uuf0 wrote

This only works when is actively making new buildings or homes. The amount of time that takes is massive. The vast majority of bars and homes are not going to get rebuilt in that short a period of time.

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asyrin25 t1_jd3em35 wrote

Eh? No it doesn't. We didn't have to rebuild our home to make it robot vacuum friendly. You don't need to rebuild a bar to have a machine that can pour drinks and move them down to you.

Hell, you don't even need voice recognition. My local taco bells switched to no counter service. There's no one to take your order. You go to the giant screen, punch in what you want, pay, and one of the two employees in the whole store will put your bag of food on the shelf for you to get. My order accuracy has improved dramatically, they move through orders far more quickly, and subjectively it's a much better experience. All with less than half the staff they used to have.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3kdju wrote

> You don't need to rebuild a bar to have a machine that can pour drinks and move them down to you.

Sure, if all the machine is going to do is that, then yes. But a bar-tender does a lot more than that. They clean up spills, they collect change, they move seats around, they clean up at the end of the day, etc.

If we are talking about just machines to do some aspects of mix drinking and serving, then I agree that this is not that involved. But there is a lot more which is part of the job.

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asyrin25 t1_jd3oouk wrote

Bar that cleans itself is pretty easy. Change deposited right to your order station if you're one of the few people that still pay with cash is a thing lots of basic machines do now. Chairs that move themselves is not crazy. We see very early examples of machines cleaning stores at the end of the day now.

People are expensive and less reliable. They get sick, need leave and vacations, and to not work too many hours. They need managers to manage them, usually on site.

Really, you don't even need real AI to do this. Just good automation. None of this requires you to completely rebuild the building and will absolutely be cheaper in the long run...not even that long, likely.

Nothing a bartender does is something a relatively simple series of machines can't do better and cheaper.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3q68h wrote

You are I think underestimating how many different machines this would involve, and how difficult clean up is of some things, like broken glass, vomit etc. Even if you can do every single part with a machine, the cost of doing all of them together with separate machines is high. Where machines may make a difference is in larger bars with multiple bar tenders. A single bar tender with some machines will likely be cheaper than a bar with three people, and still more practical than full automation.

Do you want to revisit this question in a few years. Do you want to continue this conversation in say 5 years and see how common fully automated bars are then and where the trends are?

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asyrin25 t1_jd3qvrh wrote

I think you underestimate the power of capitalism and a manufacturer's willingness to reach untapped market segments or the advantages a bar with lower costs due to automation has over one with greater costs due to human capital.

The question is whether machines will EVER replace a bartender, not whether it will happen in the next 5 years. Let's revisit in 30 years once the tech is far into maturity.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3r61e wrote

My apologies. I thought we were discussing things in the context of the sort of timeline constructed by the OP. I agree that it will eventually happen, and 30 years sounds like a potentially plausible time frame.

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DogGodFrogLog t1_jd2todn wrote

Not really. AI-Bars are pretty hip and you can already have robots that cook full meals.

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JoshuaZ1 t1_jd2uqa1 wrote

Robots that cook full meals are extremely limited in what they can do right now and the field is not progressing that quickly.

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paint-roller t1_jd0pvcu wrote

I shoot and edit for a living.

It predicting film editing by 2029 seems way far off.

I would be surprised if it takes ai longer than 3 years to be doing at least the first cut of a video.

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RustyHammers t1_jd16ft5 wrote

Do any of these language models have any way of weighing the information source they use?

This seems more like the amalgamation of the loudest human opinions than any deep insight.

I've found similar limitations when trying to use chat gtp for things like this. It seems like something it could do, but isn't good at yet.

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DentedAnvil t1_jczvjxf wrote

#100 is interesting. "2028 - Predictive policing: AI-driven tools analyzed crime data to predict and prevent criminal activity, enhancing public safety and resource allocation more effectively than traditional methods." Predictive policing... wouldn't that require preemptive due process?

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Thatingles t1_jd0046f wrote

Rebranded as interventions, yes of course it will. It is inevitable, especially if you could monitor social media in real time to see who is signaling an imminent crisis.

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NLwino t1_jd03kav wrote

It will also be used to by governments to predict who might be potential opposition. Even many years ahead. There is a youtube video with that story line, where they use drones to kill anyone who is might become a potential opposition leader when they are still students.

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Jasrek t1_jd1ze65 wrote

> Predictive policing... wouldn't that require preemptive due process?

Depends on how you do it.

For example, the model might say "a crime is likely to occur on this street on these days". So, assign a police car to hang out there on those days - you use the presence to prevent the crime from occurring.

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Longing4SwordFights t1_jd00fxd wrote

I think it's in reference to security. Facial recognition software and ability to access one's pulse temperature breathing pattern their body language these things are starting to be developed for people who have seizures to know that they'll be happening before they start so the person can lay down. Think of like an artificial dog for seizer patients. If you take that technology and perfect it you could put it into any camera system with the right sensors and it might be able to tell you if someone's about to shoot up a place or is thinking about robbing it for harming somebody. The data can be used to preemptively signal an artificial police officer. If one is actually on the scene at the time given its artificial, all the information can be calculated almost instantaneously and imagine someone pulling out a gun and their shot with pinpoint precision before they even get the gun out of it's holster all the way. Now imagine if this system was engaging every single person in the room with that exact precision of understanding and ability to read a scene. It would make a lot less mistakes than a human. Not saying I condone it but I could see that as a possible future scenario

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googleflont t1_jczr6tn wrote

When, exactly, is the Singularity supposed to happen? Iā€™d like to stay home that day.

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smr5000 t1_jczu5jz wrote

the wicked cool thing about singularities is that it looks totally different depending on whether or not you're approaching it or watching someone else approach it from afar

some days I feel it pulling us, don't you?

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Damiandcl t1_jd1bgrf wrote

what is this singularity? i saw another comment on it, but i cant figure out what they are refering to.

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kex t1_jd1qfwk wrote

I think of it as a point in time where technology advances by itself

It is difficult to predict what will happen after that

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googleflont t1_jd1vcpf wrote

Wow. Elegant explanation. Just not as scary. So, u/Damianucl ā€¦

The Singularity refers in this case to a theoretical idea that Artificial Intelligence could achieve exponential growth and possibly consciousness, or at least act to preserve its own safety and best interest, which could easily not be the same as whatā€™s best for humanity. Ya know. Skynet.

I just want to know when that happens so I can stay home, or at least dress right that day.

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Baprr t1_jd1on7e wrote

The chatbot tends to lie. Have you checked the years for obvious bullshit?

For example, the first result on googling #1 is

>Samuel first wrote a checkers-playing program for the IBM 701 in 1952. His first learning program was completed in 1955 and was demonstrated on television in 1956

Where did 1959 come from?

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fox-mcleod t1_jd2kr22 wrote

2024 - industrial design

2033 - industrial design

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marcandreewolf OP t1_jd25w8b wrote

It is not lying (it even cannot lie, unless it would be conscious šŸ˜…), but it is sometimes grabbing the wrong info, especially if repeated often online (by humans), or just halucinates nonsense. So: yes and no šŸ˜

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Baprr t1_jd28c8h wrote

It's just wrong instead of lying then. I mean, if you can't trust it to write the very easy to look up history of automation - why would you believe it's predictions? This info is pretty much useless.

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alex20_202020 t1_jd2c4m3 wrote

I think it is not useless, it might represent average dates when people wrote/predicted somewhere publicly this and that might happen.

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Baprr t1_jd2f3bj wrote

Not really. If you read what people predicted in the past about 2023, you might believe that we already have colonies in space, fully autonomous self driving cars, and cure for cancer. You have to filter the output of the chatbot, or it's - well, not gibberish, but extremely suspect information. It doesn't check or provide sources.

This list might be used to look up current projects that are being developed, and with some effort be turned into maybe 20 points of exciting things to look forward to.

But right now it's low effort useless content.

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mikevago t1_jd01iij wrote

This actually makes a lot of sense ā€”Ā it's all tasks that rely on precision and organization, and largely not ones that depend on creativity or judgement calls.

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marcandreewolf OP t1_jd01pym wrote

Yep. One thought I had was that this is actually what the list is all about, plus some timeline of course.

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lonely40m t1_jd0c14z wrote

This list is extremely impressive although I feel like it might take a little longer to map the oceans.

>2027 - Sentiment analysis: AI algorithms accurately assessed human emotions in text and speech, enabling more effective communication and customer service.

I am a little concerned about it being able to understand our emotions based on speech, so that it can tailor it's interaction with us based on what it thinks it understands about us from our emotional state.

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wolfie2990 t1_jd00an4 wrote

Haha, interesting. Next, ask it where we're going to get all the energy (hydrocarbon molecules), electricity, and rare-earth metals to continuously make, repair, and replace all these AI robots.

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marcandreewolf OP t1_jd01h3c wrote

Just catch that X phantastillion $ asteroid, build some Y million square ha PV in outer space and beam the electricity down as microwave and here you go šŸ˜

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outragedUSAcitizen t1_jd1b91o wrote

Is there such a thing as a "Fugure 2000" or is ChatGPT making that shit up?

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springmustache t1_jd1gydd wrote

The sad thing is that AI will still be forced to use the shitty ideas of a rich client in the design process.

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fox-mcleod t1_jd2kt9k wrote

2024 - industrial design

2033 - industrial design

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marcandreewolf OP t1_jd2s4uu wrote

Oups šŸ˜…. I should ask GPT-4 about it. There are actually other cases

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marcandreewolf OP t1_jd0eypw wrote

Some items are already there or almost there: e.g. 114. 2030 - Natural language generation ā€¦ I think this should be earlier. Also 129. - Travel planning ā€¦

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holyschmidt t1_jd0jce1 wrote

ā€˜#35 Human Resources: proceeds to describe recruiting. Yeah Iā€™m good.

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