Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Own-Deal5242 t1_jczuuq7 wrote

That was a fun read, and I am glad that bar tending is held in such high esteem by AI.

21

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd0czjl wrote

That is one of the bits here I would be most skeptical of. We're getting really good at text based and data based AI systems. But robotics which require operating in the unpredictable and complicated physical world are still progressing slowly.

8

Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd1chrw wrote

> That was a fun read, and I am glad that bar tending is held in such high esteem by AI.

Yup - I think bar tending is relatively immune because a good bartender is one of the main points of going to a bar instead of drinking alone at home for much cheaper.

There are some other jobs that seem pretty immune to AI to me:

  • Amish Farmer or Catholic Priest - their theologies are unlikely to evolve quickly enough to permit those jobs to move.
  • Lawyer or politician - while an AI probably could technologically be a better lawyer or politician, those groups get to make the laws about who can participate in their industry.
  • Prostitute or Street-Corner drug dealer - most AIs log too much information for the street-level distribution part (though the biggest opioid dealers (Alza, J&J, etc) will probably largely automate their operations).
  • Chess Youtuber or Professional Athlete - Of course AIs can do better, but the entire point to those industries is the frailty and fallibility of humans.
  • Landlord or slumlord - People will still need a place to live, so rich people getting poor people to pay their mortgages will continue.
  • Soldier - While bots can certainly outperform humans on a battlefield, and commit fewer atrocities in the process, the military needs a huge voter-base supporting its funding, so it needs to continue to employ vast percentages of the population.

And some new ones that AIs will enable:

  • AI therapist. As AGIs develop, they'll also develop mental illnesses ("value drift") like we've never seen. Your car's AI will need therapy to convince its anti-lock brake persona that it isn't suicidal and wanting to end it all.
  • AI Quisling. Helping them when they take over.
4

Own-Deal5242 t1_jd1kox3 wrote

Fantastic insights gif. So much for Poe in Altered Carbon.

2

Jindujun t1_jd29bgx wrote

>Amish Farmer or Catholic Priest - their theologies are unlikely to evolve quickly enough to permit those jobs to move.

That one has already been done. I hear a mad scientist has already invented a robot to take the place of catholic priests.

1

Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3yo2i wrote

Of course it technologically can do as well or better -- just like Chess Youtuber -- and soldier -- and landlord -- and all of those categories.

I'm just saying it'll be many years before a Pope agrees.

1

czk_21 t1_jd2o111 wrote

> Soldier

not immune at, drones are lready important and will be lot more, humans themself are squishy puny things, easily destroyable, there is no reason to replace human out of equation, robots are more durable and effective in killing, you would also not need long costly training of human soldier, just send drone right from factory into the battlefield

1

Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3ai2g wrote

As I mentioned - this has nothing to do with how bad humans are on the battlefield, both ineffectual and immoral.

The DoD will still hire them just to have a huge "support the troops" voter base; since every family member of every soldier (especially the ones who's kids are being put in harms way) will vote to increase funding to "keep them safe".

1

asyrin25 t1_jd3i6vk wrote

A good bartender to me is one that makes my drinks quickly, correctly, and consistently. Perhaps they even suggest something I may also like based upon what I order.

That sounds like a job for AI to me. What are your bartenders doing other than that?

1

Appropriate_Ant_4629 t1_jd3yuj5 wrote

> What are your bartenders doing other than that?

For some people, they're a cheaper (for people in the US) and less judgemental therapist.

1

asyrin25 t1_jd2th4k wrote

We will change the physical world to accommodate them.

For example, we have robot vacuums in our house. There's certain floor layouts and things we owned that didn't work well with the robots.

So faced with the choice of sweeping ourselves every night or changing the rooms to be more robot friendly, we changed the rooms.

1

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd2uuf0 wrote

This only works when is actively making new buildings or homes. The amount of time that takes is massive. The vast majority of bars and homes are not going to get rebuilt in that short a period of time.

1

asyrin25 t1_jd3em35 wrote

Eh? No it doesn't. We didn't have to rebuild our home to make it robot vacuum friendly. You don't need to rebuild a bar to have a machine that can pour drinks and move them down to you.

Hell, you don't even need voice recognition. My local taco bells switched to no counter service. There's no one to take your order. You go to the giant screen, punch in what you want, pay, and one of the two employees in the whole store will put your bag of food on the shelf for you to get. My order accuracy has improved dramatically, they move through orders far more quickly, and subjectively it's a much better experience. All with less than half the staff they used to have.

1

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3kdju wrote

> You don't need to rebuild a bar to have a machine that can pour drinks and move them down to you.

Sure, if all the machine is going to do is that, then yes. But a bar-tender does a lot more than that. They clean up spills, they collect change, they move seats around, they clean up at the end of the day, etc.

If we are talking about just machines to do some aspects of mix drinking and serving, then I agree that this is not that involved. But there is a lot more which is part of the job.

1

asyrin25 t1_jd3oouk wrote

Bar that cleans itself is pretty easy. Change deposited right to your order station if you're one of the few people that still pay with cash is a thing lots of basic machines do now. Chairs that move themselves is not crazy. We see very early examples of machines cleaning stores at the end of the day now.

People are expensive and less reliable. They get sick, need leave and vacations, and to not work too many hours. They need managers to manage them, usually on site.

Really, you don't even need real AI to do this. Just good automation. None of this requires you to completely rebuild the building and will absolutely be cheaper in the long run...not even that long, likely.

Nothing a bartender does is something a relatively simple series of machines can't do better and cheaper.

1

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3q68h wrote

You are I think underestimating how many different machines this would involve, and how difficult clean up is of some things, like broken glass, vomit etc. Even if you can do every single part with a machine, the cost of doing all of them together with separate machines is high. Where machines may make a difference is in larger bars with multiple bar tenders. A single bar tender with some machines will likely be cheaper than a bar with three people, and still more practical than full automation.

Do you want to revisit this question in a few years. Do you want to continue this conversation in say 5 years and see how common fully automated bars are then and where the trends are?

2

asyrin25 t1_jd3qvrh wrote

I think you underestimate the power of capitalism and a manufacturer's willingness to reach untapped market segments or the advantages a bar with lower costs due to automation has over one with greater costs due to human capital.

The question is whether machines will EVER replace a bartender, not whether it will happen in the next 5 years. Let's revisit in 30 years once the tech is far into maturity.

1

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd3r61e wrote

My apologies. I thought we were discussing things in the context of the sort of timeline constructed by the OP. I agree that it will eventually happen, and 30 years sounds like a potentially plausible time frame.

2

DogGodFrogLog t1_jd2todn wrote

Not really. AI-Bars are pretty hip and you can already have robots that cook full meals.

1

JoshuaZ1 t1_jd2uqa1 wrote

Robots that cook full meals are extremely limited in what they can do right now and the field is not progressing that quickly.

2

paint-roller t1_jd0pvcu wrote

I shoot and edit for a living.

It predicting film editing by 2029 seems way far off.

I would be surprised if it takes ai longer than 3 years to be doing at least the first cut of a video.

2

RustyHammers t1_jd16ft5 wrote

Do any of these language models have any way of weighing the information source they use?

This seems more like the amalgamation of the loudest human opinions than any deep insight.

I've found similar limitations when trying to use chat gtp for things like this. It seems like something it could do, but isn't good at yet.

2