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jfcarr t1_jdirjot wrote

The pandemic supply chain crisis and the Ukraine conflict are already causing a shift in trade towards local/regional sources when possible. Mexico and parts of the Southern US are posed to take over a lot of mid-level manufacturing from China so far as North American markets go. Closer to home substitute raw materials are being sought out. Then there's the rapid demographic collapse in China and other countries that will also push this trend. Also, the US is trending towards being less inclined, perhaps even less capable, to maintain/enforce the globalization status quo militarily.

Tourism outside of one's immediate region was already becoming a rich persons' game. I do think that we will see an increasing income inequality divide here where "climate taxes" and other similar techniques will be used to restrict tourist travel by low and middle class people while the wealthy continue to fly private jets to Gstaad or Fiji with impunity.

The demographic collapse will drive some immigration that will be needed to fill in worker ranks at all levels of education. Canada and Australia are examples of this trend as are some countries in Europe. Countries, like China, that restrict immigration in the face of demographic collapse will suffer. In the US and Mexico, immigration issues may be resolved by finding equitable and agreeable ways to end the drug and human trafficking trade along the border (ie not a wall or military force).


Test19s OP t1_jdiskzk wrote

Mass immigration between continents is something I really hope we can make work. I’ll never accept the possibility that national culture/ethnic makeup matters except to the extent that it reflects political and mass-media influences. The last time Western and Northern Europeans were convinced of their superiority, we saw the rise of literally the worst civilization since the fall of the Aztecs.