What do you see as outlooks for trade, tourism, and immigration in the coming decade?

Submitted by Test19s t3_120qgkr in Futurology

Trade, at least between different continents and countries with vastly different cultures and regimes, I see as having more or less maxed out relative to GDP. The reasons mainly have to do with the issues in maintaining supply chains that run across continents as well as the willingness of regimes to interfere with the internal affairs of their partners. I don’t see a mass reversal of globalization but I don’t see it expanding much until we have fully automated supply chains.

Tourism, due to its climate impacts, Airbnb distortion of housing markets, and public health concerns, is an area where I could see a significant rollback. Especially if virtual destinations become attractive thanks to VR.

Immigration imo has very powerful forces pushing in either direction. On the pro-immigration side, there are emerging population shortages as well as a likelihood of significant climate migration from tropical and low-lying countries into cooler and more mountainous ones. On the other side, though, I’m seeing a lot of concerns about scarce resources within countries (housing obviously, but everything from food to healthcare to minerals to fresh water is limited unless you want to turn the planet into Coruscant) as well as concerns (possibly spouted by bad actors that want to divide multi continental and immigrant societies) about how many people there are in the developing world who can fully contribute to Western democracies without importing poverty, social problems, or ethnic/national tensions.

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Shalrak t1_jdkekg8 wrote

Right now, we see an increasing amount of tourists choose neighboring countries, or even their own country, rather than warmer destinations. This means that destinations like Scandinavia houses more guests than they have in the last 15 years, right now. Particularly rented holiday houses and camping is booming, while hotels can't quite keep up.

Meanwhile, typical destination like southern Europe who have build an economy based on massive tourism, will struggle immensely.

As we become more environmentally aware, I don't think plane travel will be as dominant as it has in the past, not even for those who could still afford it.

Many have learned just how much local countries has to offer. When the recession turns around in this decade, I think many tourists will return to southern destinations, but not like it used to be.

We've changed how we are tourists for good.

We also see a massive trend that tourists seek out "real" experiences, rather than "touristy" attractions. Big all-inclusive hotels on the beach will decline. Tourism is developing to coexist with local customs, rather than define them. Cities like Barcelona has been destroyed by tourism, and it's a massive focus in the industry to change that. This will take more than a decade, but that's the direction were going, at least in Northern Europe.

VR is not an alternative to a holiday. I don't see it having any significant inpact on tourism in the coming decate, but if anything, I think showcasing destinations in VR will increase interest in travel.

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Test19s OP t1_jdkmyaq wrote

I just hope we don't see them go after immigration (beyond essential skills) and even international trade. Increasingly locally-bound populations reduce contact between countries/cultures and civilizations and can spawn tensions and stereotypes.

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[deleted] t1_jdilaev wrote

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Test19s OP t1_jdimaow wrote

I wrote that all myself, although I do tend to use formal or even stifled language. I don’t even have ChatGPT yet, although I do use some AI art on occasion.

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[deleted] t1_jdimj4p wrote

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Test19s OP t1_jdimwl7 wrote

Ouch sorry. I swear I’m cooler offline. Maybe I picked up that weirdly formal writing style from interacting with bots on the Reddit.

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jfcarr t1_jdirjot wrote

The pandemic supply chain crisis and the Ukraine conflict are already causing a shift in trade towards local/regional sources when possible. Mexico and parts of the Southern US are posed to take over a lot of mid-level manufacturing from China so far as North American markets go. Closer to home substitute raw materials are being sought out. Then there's the rapid demographic collapse in China and other countries that will also push this trend. Also, the US is trending towards being less inclined, perhaps even less capable, to maintain/enforce the globalization status quo militarily.

Tourism outside of one's immediate region was already becoming a rich persons' game. I do think that we will see an increasing income inequality divide here where "climate taxes" and other similar techniques will be used to restrict tourist travel by low and middle class people while the wealthy continue to fly private jets to Gstaad or Fiji with impunity.

The demographic collapse will drive some immigration that will be needed to fill in worker ranks at all levels of education. Canada and Australia are examples of this trend as are some countries in Europe. Countries, like China, that restrict immigration in the face of demographic collapse will suffer. In the US and Mexico, immigration issues may be resolved by finding equitable and agreeable ways to end the drug and human trafficking trade along the border (ie not a wall or military force).

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Test19s OP t1_jdiskzk wrote

Mass immigration between continents is something I really hope we can make work. I’ll never accept the possibility that national culture/ethnic makeup matters except to the extent that it reflects political and mass-media influences. The last time Western and Northern Europeans were convinced of their superiority, we saw the rise of literally the worst civilization since the fall of the Aztecs.

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renb8 t1_jdiyib1 wrote

Australia perspective - outlook is grim and I’m an optimist. Here’s why: Trade - supply chain issues - transport costs. Tourism - cost of travel to and from and high cost in Australia to see the whole country - large areas of Aust are damaged by extreme weather and still recovering EG floods. Immigration - despite being multicultural and having job vacancies, 9 years of conservative gov has seen the archaic White Aust Policy feel like it’s still active even though no longer ratified. Aust needs to rid itself of its redneckery.

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Mercurionio t1_jdllxw0 wrote

Trade will become even more secured then now, basically, creating a very tight market, instead of global trading like it was before. Pandemic, and Russian invasion already pushed that.

Traveling will be a problem because of that too. Although to a lesser point.

Workforce and educational systems will be obliterated. Not only education will be useless (most of the stuff won't be needed anyway), it is also a problem from financial stand point.

Workforce will be obliterated. Fast growing of AI replacing everyone won't be equal between countries, making a chaotic and colossal migration of those who will still be able to find a job.

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