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YetAnotherWTFMoment t1_ir5rtx7 wrote

Reply to comment by arvigeus in U.S. plans new limits on tech sent to Chinese firms by WallStreetDoesntBet

Ten years ago...twenty years ago...that would have been a safe bet.

The technology gap between the US and China keeps getting narrower.

I can see parity within the next decade.

China has been putting massive resources on a vertical scale to run at the same speed as more advanced countries for decades, while we're standing around whining about pronouns and getting professors fired for being too hard (recent NYU case, Maitland Jones Jr.).

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ovirt001 t1_ir7xjxz wrote

They've just gotten better at copying/stealing. China has already peaked and has zero chance of legitimately catching up.

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YetAnotherWTFMoment t1_ir7zhmq wrote

...and you say this because?

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ovirt001 t1_ir7zyfa wrote

You seem to be under the impression that China has the capacity to actually catch up and beat the west.

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YetAnotherWTFMoment t1_ir8jxk5 wrote

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpacing-u-s-stem-phd-growth/

I said parity, not beat. Please pay attention.

They simply have the power of numbers working in their favour right now.

They have the technological base because we gave it to them.

They have the people to run all of it because they graduate engineers and other tech nerds by the boatload, and many of them are western educated.

The only spark they're missing is a dysfunctional capital markets system that allows $$ to finance crazy stupid ideas.

BTW, nice deflection/no answer to my query.

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pretendperson t1_irar3y1 wrote

they don’t have any equipment nor capacity to produce EUV chips, period. Their photolithography capabilities without US tech is decades behind.

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YetAnotherWTFMoment t1_irbq7p6 wrote

You mean without ASML.

It's a global economy, they buy whatever they need from whoever makes it.

The US doesn't have an EUV company.

The Dutch do.

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pretendperson t1_irc4sj2 wrote

I do mean ASML for the photolithography equipment, installation, and maintenance. ASML does a LOT of business with US corporations and the US government and will be bound by the same rules.

And the Dutch don't control the lion's share of advanced EUV fabs; the US does.

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YetAnotherWTFMoment t1_irfjj3o wrote

The US is trying to influence ASML to restrict sales of equipment to China.

A) Good luck with that.

B) Bad idea.

C) The irony that Donald Trump was the first one to start railing against China, got shelled for it, and yet today, China bashing is okay. What kind of fucked up foreign/economic policy does the US have?

D) Lion's share of advanced EUV fabs...well, yes, you're right, US customers dominate the order book. But that can change. $$$ talks.

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ovirt001 t1_irerwvz wrote

> They simply have the power of numbers working in their favour right now.

Not anymore, their working-age population started declining in 2015 and overall population as early as 2020.

> They have the technological base because we gave it to them.

They still have to import all critical technologies.
Zhaoxin uses Via designs (which are based on Cyrix designs).
The Sunway chips are based on the DEC-Alpha.
Hygon licensed AMD's Xen architecture.
The recent "Chinese" GPUs use stolen IP from AMD and Nvidia.
HiSilicon used barely-modified ARM designs.
EspressIf uses Tensilica designs.
SMIC can't reliably build on modern process nodes.
HSMC failed.
Thousands of other Chinese chip companies have failed.

> They have the people to run all of it because they graduate engineers and other tech nerds by the boatload, and many of them are western educated.

Look at youth unemployment numbers in China, those who aren't burnt out are giving up.

> The only spark they're missing is a dysfunctional capital markets system that allows $$ to finance crazy stupid ideas.

Getting money for anything in tech in China has been trivial for the last 10 years, it's why you see a hundred copies of dumb ideas all over sites like Ali Express.

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