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izumi3682 OP t1_irbpwq3 wrote

Reply to comment by tnorbosu in White House Releases Blueprint for Artificial Intelligence Bill of Rights by izumi3682

2122? More like 2030 I'd bet.

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Jq4000 t1_irbrozi wrote

2122 comes after 2030

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izumi3682 OP t1_irbs5k0 wrote

By the year 2122, humanity, if it survives these next 10-20 years, will be beyond anything we can imagine or even fathom today. Still, I gave it a shot, but I'm painting with pretty broad strokes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/

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Jq4000 t1_irbsrt7 wrote

Yes, yes, I also read Raymond Kurzweil ;)

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izumi3682 OP t1_irbtatl wrote

Hey! Tell me what you think of this! I wrote this brief essay in 2017 long before we came to this point in the development in AI.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/

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Jq4000 t1_irbvo5v wrote

I think you outline a possible outcome. There's also the possibility that strong AI could be cracked in a way where the AI doesn't have a "grow at all costs" imperative that puts it on a ballistic trajectory of growth.

There's also the possibility that strong AI comes online in tandem with humans developing neural nets, in such a way that humans aren't left behind by an AI going asymptotic.

I agree with Kurzweil's thesis that we'll likely be facing AIs that pass the Turing Test by 2030. The point where things get serious for me is when machines pass Turing tests in perpetuity rather than for a few hours. That's the point where we may be dealing with more than our equals.

I'm not ready to commit that the world beyond 2030 is a black haze of singularity just yet. What I will say is that if we have machines passing the Turing test at that point then we should be buckling up for an eventful set of decades to follow.

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izumi3682 OP t1_irc3wx1 wrote

>There's also the possibility that strong AI comes online in tandem with humans developing neural nets, in such a way that humans aren't left behind by an AI going asymptotic.

Yes, I agree with this. I have placed it occurring roughly 5 years after the initial TS, which as you eloquently state may not be "a black haze of singularity".

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/vpoopq/we_asked_gpt3_to_write_an_academic_paper_about/ielpj4d/

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Enoughisunoeuf t1_ircolig wrote

We're already watching cults form in real time due to propaganda. AI is going to be disastrous.

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lordofedging81 t1_irc3x19 wrote

In the year 2525, if man is still alive, If woman can survive, they may find, In the year 3535, Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie, Everything you think, do and say, Is in the pill you took today.

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