Submitted by PeteWenzel t3_y1eklp in Futurology
Comments
MadNhater t1_irxpmtc wrote
The threat of war has helped climate change for once.
Occma t1_irzt7cb wrote
I mean europe is going through an energy revolution to get rid of putins oil. Putin ironically may and up an important contributor against climate change.
Still_Study_6059 t1_is027te wrote
Putin's gas is a bigger driver of change, but it did rear some heads how reliant we've made ourselves on despotic regimes that don't necessarily have our best interests at heart. So there's been a perception-change with regards to oil too. Especially when OPEC is jacking up the prices by lowering production.
Scope_Dog t1_is1s89o wrote
These European countries knew it was a terrible idea to be reliant on Russian gas and oil they just chose to shrug their shoulders and move on.
Still_Study_6059 t1_is1ueja wrote
Also true. And if they didn't early in the millennium the start of the invasion of Ukraine should've tipped them off. Or the Georgian invasion before that. We've made ourselves a play-thing for these despots.
Lollmfaowhatever t1_iu4oyno wrote
More like after 2008's airpocalypse the Chinese went simcity mode on their country.
gemstun t1_irz7rq6 wrote
Thanks repeating it. I didn’t get it the first few times you said it. (JK)
Seriously, you make an excellent point that I had not heard anyone say before. Thank you.
Poochydawg t1_irzayjx wrote
Are they also getting out of manufacturing goods like plastic toys, electronics, furnishings, building materials etc etc. all requires some form of petroleum by product….
lemans356 t1_irzbsgq wrote
Even the manufacturing carbon footprint can be reduced substantially . By implementing more modern methods.
Surur t1_irzonbc wrote
If you think about it, unless those things get burnt they are actually a form of carbon sequestration.
tacofiller t1_is02bgo wrote
Not if you consider the carbon was already sequestered in natural crude oil deposits. Once you take that into account you have to consider the energy required to explore, drill, transport the oil, the energy required to refine it, convert it to plastics, ship the plastics, manufacture the toys, ship the toys to distribution centres, then ship to retail and/or dtc.
Also think of creating and maintaining the infrastructure around all the shipping and manufacturing, the manufacture of shipping vehicles, the mining and energy that went into all of that... and the layers/“generations” of manufacturing and raw material shipping and extraction that went into all that.
Surur t1_is06cog wrote
When we fully electrify (and move to renewables) then the carbon cost of mining and manufacturing would not matter.
Then oil would be just another raw mineral.
tacofiller t1_is9uc44 wrote
True, at that point in the distant future (10+ years to get to that point?) extracting oil or anything else should be CO2 neutral. Natural gas would always be an externality though, as it escapes during extraction and processing.
Scope_Dog t1_is1sg8m wrote
Hmm, does making plastic and other things out of petroleum put C02 into the air or is it just when it is burned?
Poochydawg t1_is2my6o wrote
You need to stop refining oil to start with if you want to make a difference. Not just look at things like cars because you see them on the street every day.
Somhlth t1_irwvbg1 wrote
For those without an account:
Electric trucks are grabbing a lot of headlines lately. Elon Musk announced Tesla Semis will start shipping to PepsiCo in California. Volvo is delivering battery-powered big rigs to Amazon in Germany. But few markets are electrifying quite like China, where EVs have gone from less than 1% of light commercial vehicle sales to 10% in just the last two years. Sales reached a record high of almost 18,000 in August and look likely to keep rising in the final few months of the year.
China is the largest commercial vehicle market in the world, so what happens there moves the needle globally. At 10% electric share, China is well ahead of almost all other countries in this segment. Only South Korea has a higher adoption rate, with more than 20% of its light commercial vehicle sales already electric so far in 2022. The adoption curve for light electric vans and trucks in China has started to look a bit like what happened with passenger vehicles a few years earlier, when the combination of policy support, more model availability and a surge in charging-infrastructure investment led the market to take off. Momentum has continued on the passenger vehicle side, with plug-in vehicles hitting 29% of all sales in September. Full electrics were 22% of the market. The market for electric medium and heavy-duty trucks in China is also picking up. Sales of electric big rigs in that segment rose 224% in July and hit 3.4% of the total market. Deliveries dipped slightly in August, falling to 2% share, but the trend for the year is still strongly up and to the right.
So far, most of these heavy trucks are operating in shorter-range urban duty cycles, rather than long-haul routes, but the picture is changing quickly nonetheless. It’s easy to be dismissive of a few percentage points of market share, but technology adoption stories have a habit of going slowly, right up until they don’t. Earlier this year, I wrote about how China was experimenting with the right mix of policy, technology and economic levers to drive zero-emission options in these heavier vehicle segments, and that things could move quickly once the optimal mix becomes clearer. That point may be arriving now, and the latest data challenges two widely held beliefs in both the transport and energy sectors.
The first is that hydrogen fuel cells are the main, or even the only, way to clean up heavy trucks. The data so far shows that while fuel cells are playing a role, most of the alternative heavy trucks being sold in China are battery-electric. It’s early days and this could still change, but BNEF analysis indicates that at least for urban duty cycles, electric heavy trucks are already much more economically competitive and will remain so even with the expected decline in the cost of hydrogen and fuel cell stacks. The last standing area of contention is long-haul trucking. That segment is still up for grabs, but even there, recent BNEF analysis on planned model launches showed a huge divergence between the number of electric and fuel cell trucks coming to market. There are a lot corporate net-zero targets that are starting to filter down to the supply chain in the next few years that will pressure big logistics fleet operators to start getting zero-emission options on the road. Electric models have a serious head start. China is also experimenting with battery swapping for commercial vehicles, showing there’s more than one way to skin the cat. Data compiled by BNEF shows a 318% increase in the number of commercial battery swap stations set up in China last year, and planned deployment of 34,000 vans and trucks with swappable batteries. A single city, Tagshan, has deployed over 4,400 heavy-duty battery-swapping trucks as of September. That’s more than the entire global heavy duty fuel cell truck fleet. The other orthodoxy that sales data cuts against is that commercial vehicles will keep oil demand in the road transport sector growing steadily in the decades ahead. Most major oil outlooks now acknowledge that passenger vehicle oil demand has either already peaked or will soon. But almost all of them assume steady growth in demand from the commercial vehicle segment as countries get richer and more freight continues to be moved by road. In BNEF’s 2022 Road Fuel Outlook, commercial vehicle growth keeps oil demand growing, but not for long. This year’s outlook has overall road transport oil demand peaking in 2027, but if sales of electric trucks continue to rise sharply in China, that could be pulled forward.
noelcowardspeaksout t1_irx3ka1 wrote
Interesting. I thought Hydrogen was slated to be the most economic power source for trucks - but I suppose the tech for EV's is a lot simpler and that it is much easier to mass produce and roll out at this early stage. Anyhow whatever wins in the long run it's good to see.
It now costs $1000 dollars to fill up a trailer truck in the US - so I can imagine the electric drive trains won't take long to pay for themselves.
It's good to see US solar slated to ramp up so much, just in time for this transformation in the haulage industry.
Shot-Job-8841 t1_irx9qh3 wrote
The issue for hydrogen right now is the cost of green hydrogen. No one wants to use green hydrogen if it’s more expensive than gas, since a HFCEV costs more than an ICE vehicle. And there’s no point to grey hydrogen since it’s dirty and harder to transport than oil. Once we have green hydrogen at parity with fossil fuels, then you’ll start to see some changes, bot before then.
geon2k2 t1_is0au1v wrote
Correct. Hydrogen will become a thing once we have excess electricity, maybe from solar, or maybe that high temperature reactor prototype will eventually fly off. But we are looking at a decade or so until it could become viable and widespread. Sure pioneers and prototypes are welcome in the meantime.
GoinPuffinBlowin t1_iryodt8 wrote
Hydrogen is fueled as ammonia. EV's are aimed at consumer level vehicles and short trip vehicles. Without huge breakthroughs in charging, capacity, and weight reduction, battery powered will not be suitable for anything long haul like big ships, trains, planes, and semi trucks. The vehicle landscape will look very different in 5 years
Shot-Job-8841 t1_iryzlwp wrote
As far as I am aware, ammonia production uses hydrogen as a reactant. Meaning that the cost of green hydrogen is relevant to ammonia being used as an energy source.
GoinPuffinBlowin t1_is86q37 wrote
I don't know what that has to do with what I said. I said EV's aren't a solution to big business or big shipping, and you went all in on one sentence, ignoring the point of the post. You said no one wants to use green hydrogen, and I said the biggest companies in the world are actively researching how they can utilize hydrogen fuel instead of batteries. I guess "no one" didn't include companies like Caterpillar, Amtrak, Boeing, GE, and Toyota/BMW?
Edit: of course you downvote me because you disagree. You don't understand that the arrows are meant to encourage discussion, not silence dissenting opinions. On the note of opinions, I am a chemical engineer for DOW, working on alternative fuels. I can tell you with absolute certainty that your opinion is wrong. Uniformed at the best, and willfully ignorant at worst.
The production of ammonia, whether you believe it to be "green" or not, is far less damaging to the environment than mining precious metals. The industry already has solutions that I can't openly discuss, but if you read anything beyond Elon Musk's tweets you'd know BP and FS are building their ammonia pipelines as we speak because hydrogen, not batteries, is the future
Shot-Job-8841 t1_is8yvlc wrote
Those companies are mostly using grey and blue hydrogen, because it’s 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 much more cost effective.
You mentioned ammonia and I responded that ammonia production usually requires you to produce hydrogen first.
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PeteWenzel OP t1_irwv2y6 wrote
EVs have gone from less than 1% of light commercial vehicle sales to 10% in just the last two years. Sales reached a record high of almost 18,000 in August and look likely to keep rising in the final few months of the year.
Most major oil outlooks now acknowledge that passenger vehicle oil demand has either already peaked or will soon. But almost all of them assume steady growth in demand from the commercial vehicle segment as countries get richer and more freight continues to be moved by road.
In BNEF’s 2022 Road Fuel Outlook, commercial vehicle growth keeps oil demand growing, but not for long. This year’s outlook has overall road transport oil demand peaking in 2027, but if sales of electric trucks continue to rise sharply in China, that could be pulled forward.
MeteorOnMars t1_irx118k wrote
Road oil demand peaking in 2027 or earlier would be fantastic.
farticustheelder t1_iry1mk8 wrote
I have argued for years that Peak Oil happened back in 2017. I posit that any perceived increase in demand since then is just China and India filling Strategic Petroleum Reserves and since that oil is not consumed I ignore it.
In the US average daily diesel consumption so far this year is 3.921 million barrels, 5 years ago it was 4.035 million barrels. Had Covid not happened this period would be considered a plateau preceding the inevitable collapse.
Amazon is spending $1 Billion to electrify its EU road delivery fleet. Shipping is a very competitive business so the rest of the industry is electrifying just as fast.
Most people seem to think oil demand goes up next year by 1-2 million bpd, I think it falls by about 1.5 million bpd.
Pooleh t1_iry86oo wrote
That's some interesting data. Where do you get the info for bpd?
farticustheelder t1_iry8oom wrote
eia's Weekly Petroleum Status Report
that_other_goat t1_irxc97y wrote
interestingly the little electric pickups are really useful for utility work on a farm and a heck of a lot cheaper than a low end Utility vehicle.
BuckRogers87 t1_irxnnuk wrote
I’ve heard that towing in an ev truck isn’t efficient at all.
fallingcats_net t1_iry9wsq wrote
Towing is not "inefficient" it just takes more energy. While that's exactly the same for a gas powered car, you probably notice it more in an electric car because your range was more limited to start with.
PM_meyourGradyWhite t1_irzbvlb wrote
My 28 year old truck gets 10 mpg empty. Seven mpg towing. My range is significantly reduced. I’d expect the same with EV.
knowitallz t1_irxzgt0 wrote
It's not efficient to tow sure. But an ICE engine is usually a lot of energy gone to waste. Where an electric is not. So yeah it creates drag and also it's heavier so more energy needed. So for a person that needs towing they may have to get a heavier duty or longer range battery that doesn't yet exist.
BuckRogers87 t1_iry7jfj wrote
Saw a guy shoot a video on his new ford lightning. Had a 200 mile charge. Drove a trip of roughly 45 to 50 miles, first was just a trailer, and it ate up his entire charge. Towed approximately 3500 lbs.
spoollyger t1_irxrtfb wrote
Yes, this is what they would love you to think. Keep buying gas.
Unclehooptiepie t1_iry6nfe wrote
It's literally true. I'm all for electric and I hate that the right wing uses the fact the f150 gets shit mileage towing as some checkmate agaist electric but it is fact. What's also fact is that most people who own half tons rarely ever tow so for most its not a issue. Once prices come down I would love to have one.
spoollyger t1_iry71sd wrote
I wonder if gas vehicles lose range when towing?
sanitarystapler t1_iry8r1g wrote
They do. Though I usually get more than 50 percent of the normal range, I also slow down quite a bit for stability.
The real issue is this. You can carry more energy in the gas/diesel truck and fill it up in 5-10 minutes. If I'm towing a car or whatever I'm not on a sight seeing vacation where I want to hang out for 30 minutes to an hour every 150 miles.
That's such a specific use though. Currently I borrow or rent a truck to do it. I do see electric trucks making sense for in town deliveries. Which is all stop and go so it will also make the biggest difference there.
spoollyger t1_irybzpb wrote
I feel like you may benefit from renting a Tesla and trying out the charging yourself. 10-15 min charges are more than enough to top up 50-75% and gain roughly 400km range. Enough time to grab a coffee, or in my experiment while on holiday, watch a Netflix show with my partner while we waited. It really wasn’t that bad. Especially when you are waking up every day with 100% charge. Sure, towing will reduce range and yeah, you will REALLY want a long range model if you are towing. But then general consensus of how long it takes to charge is being blown up a little. You don’t need to charge to 100% and in most cases you’ll never want too. That last 15% will take 3-4 times longer to charge than the first 50%. So micro charging every 200-300kms is just fine and that’ll take around 10mins.
sanitarystapler t1_iryft3h wrote
I like electric cars. Wish I could afford one for the small amount I drive in town. A solo would currently meet my needs much more than a tesla though.
I was specifically talking about towing longer distances.. Just go ahead and cut the distance the energy should carry you in half. Also tesla states their fast charger does 200mi in 15 minutes. So Instead of a 4 minute fill (gas pumps are limited to 10gpm), I'm looking at 15 minutes for 1/3 of capability in distance. (figuring a mid size truck with a 36 gallon tank would get 8-12 mpg towing)
Once again, when I'm towing I'm not there to watch Netflix and drink coffee. I would still rather rent a ic vehicle.
Unclehooptiepie t1_irzp3x8 wrote
That's also with lacking infrastructure to charge. If the world goes electric rather than hydrogen I know charging stations won't be an issue but currently depending on where you live it may be. Two years ago i bought a new car and it will be my last ICE daily driver.
PM_meyourGradyWhite t1_irzbyi0 wrote
I lose 30% range easily.
80rexij t1_irxtay4 wrote
There's nothing to think about, the electric f150 is proving that the current generation of electric pickups suck at towing. I'm sure it will get better but we're not there yet
PeteWenzel OP t1_irxudib wrote
Outside the US that’s really a non-issue isn’t it? In the other two Auto markets (China and the EU) pickups make up a vanishingly small percentage of overall sales.
s0cks_nz t1_irxz323 wrote
Unfortunately down under here in Aussie and New Zealand, we love pickups too. I am seeing a lot of other EVs on the road too though.
redd-zeppelin t1_iryg9m8 wrote
It's not an issue here in the US either. Unless you REGULARLY tow a boat across a large state, you won't ever run into this "devastating weakness".
According to Edwards', 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning likely never).
It's a none issue for most people, for whom an EV truck is already a wildly superior choice.
80rexij t1_irxvmon wrote
If Rivian gets past the recall Europe can join the chat. I suspect they'll have the same issue as Ford.
PeteWenzel OP t1_irxwa8u wrote
What?
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Pickups don’t sell in Europe. That’s not going to change with EVs!
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Rivian overall delivered 6500 cars in Q3 this year…
BuckRogers87 t1_iry7wd6 wrote
Not my fault that apparently ev trucks suck ass at towing and battery range.
spoollyger t1_irybfqx wrote
Do gas vehicles lose range when towing?
BuckRogers87 t1_irzpavg wrote
Not at the rate his ev was. He was losing at a 4 to 1 ratio. Drove like 50 miles and killed his battery that said it had a 200 mile range. Drove the speed limit and wasn’t towing much. I’m not saying ev trucks wouldn’t be cool just that apparently they suck when towing weight.
spoollyger t1_irzszhb wrote
Can’t wait to see the the cyber truck does. I know people are anti it and think it’ll never come out but it’s looking on track to start deliveries middle of next year.
Poochydawg t1_irzbzga wrote
We are a decade or 2 away from a decent electric utility that can allow you to be a tradesperson during the day, and recreational towing on the weekends/holidays.
I am not against reducing emissions, I am off grid for electricity (18k solar) water and sewer, but electric vehicles are still a meme for anyone outside of a city apartment dwelling office worker.
Even further away from having reliable and scalable grid for charging tens of millions of EV’s..
that_other_goat t1_irze0os wrote
You're right about electrics not being suitable for the trades and recreation yet but for patching a fence, hauling in a small harvest for a farmstand/market, general repairs, watering animals, driving to irrigation pumps, dropping salt licks, and a hundred other little tasks usually filled by UTV's and the like are all within the capabilities of these cheap little electric trucks.
I think they're a good fit on a farm as your often going places to do work outside in set area of land.
For less than the cost of a low end John Deere Gator you could have one with it's own off grid charging station.
For heavier stuff there's the tractor and for tractors I kind of like the new holland methane powered T6's as a concept. I know the waste products are CO2 and water but well methane comes with agricultural production and is worse as a greenhouse gas so removing that could be a net positive but I could be wrong.
FuturologyBot t1_irwzrxc wrote
The following submission statement was provided by /u/PeteWenzel:
EVs have gone from less than 1% of light commercial vehicle sales to 10% in just the last two years. Sales reached a record high of almost 18,000 in August and look likely to keep rising in the final few months of the year.
Most major oil outlooks now acknowledge that passenger vehicle oil demand has either already peaked or will soon. But almost all of them assume steady growth in demand from the commercial vehicle segment as countries get richer and more freight continues to be moved by road.
In BNEF’s 2022 Road Fuel Outlook, commercial vehicle growth keeps oil demand growing, but not for long. This year’s outlook has overall road transport oil demand peaking in 2027, but if sales of electric trucks continue to rise sharply in China, that could be pulled forward.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/y1eklp/chinas_electric_trucks_may_well_pull_forward_peak/irwv2y6/
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pinkfootthegoose t1_is0iw8x wrote
Trash. How the f is someone supposed to use a trailer like that? It's actually useless for cargo. I know these are artist impressions but it shows how out of touch the promoters of these things are.
It does not bode well.
[deleted] t1_is0kx67 wrote
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[deleted] t1_irx2c9u wrote
Also they forgot to mention the biggest EV manufacturer of busses and heavy duty vans in China is bankrupt. And that only very few brands have profits and only in the personal vehicles sector. So diesel trucks are not going anywhere any time soon, what is really bad news.
PeteWenzel OP t1_irx6fex wrote
What are you talking about? BYD is the world’s largest EV bus maker, and is very much not bankrupt.
[deleted] t1_irx99we wrote
BYD biggest sector is more personal vehicles that's why W Buffett is also taking money out of BYD, even for busses their main market is not china, YAngtze Motors that is in bankrupt, have over 20 different models of busses and vans, not sure how many models BYD provide in China because their numbers are really shady, but I don't think they have so many models in the public transportation, vans or heavy duty in general. That's the main focus of the report. Personal vehicles are doing fine for the moment everywhere,.how long will last? Who knows, but busses, trucks, vans and heavy duty in general they are not going anywhere.
PeteWenzel OP t1_irxe3as wrote
You’re wrong about busses: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022/trends-in-electric-heavy-duty-vehicles#abstract
[deleted] t1_irxnc3i wrote
Increase of registration is not equal to profits, Public transportation and heavy duty vehicles are not as profitable as personal vehicles. They are many examples of this before EVs, I don't think is related to quality or productivity, is just because the volume is much lower and the vehicles are less disposable like the personal vehicles. It would be good if they start from the basics, like build a EV truck that can deliver the personal EVs for general public instead of sending diesel trucks to deliver EVs.
MilkshakeBoy78 t1_irxem7i wrote
why cant busses, trucks, vans be as numerous as personal vehicles? they will eventually be phased out from gas powered to ev vans definitely can be mass produced since it's basically a SUV
[deleted] t1_irxorpn wrote
That's a really good question, and to be honest I don't know why. I think people put to much personal affect and emotion in their vehicles and they just don't want to stop using them, is like an addiction. We should be very capable of building huge amounts of EV busses and vans and give service for free, at that point there will be no reason to have personal vehicles, but I am very sure we will still see many people trying to keep and try to justify the use of personal vehicles.
Surur t1_irxdm0q wrote
I've said it a few times, but it bears repeating that China has a strategic interest in getting off oil, as it's one of their major imports and weak points.
Given that a lot of manufacturing happens in China, this will automatically help decarbonize a lot of our carbon footprint.