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boonepii t1_is2jvop wrote

Battery tech is evolving fast. That’s no joke. There are many many billions being invested into new battery projects, and not all the companies doing it are following the same theories.

The issue is a battery factory takes 4-5 years to spin up. You need years worth of research and negotiation with many companies before you can build a building. Once you chose the vendor of equipment you have to build the building to their desired specs. These buildings are massive and complex. Lots of fire safety integrations and stuff like that.

So, your cutting edge battery factory is 2-5 years out of date when you open the doors.


dontpet t1_is2ksl1 wrote

I wonder what kind of discounts they use in planning a business case for a battery factory, given the tech and cost is changing so fast.

So many possibly outcomes. I imagine with that kind of risk they price in a lot of fat. Or push some of that risk to those buying the final product.


CoJack-ish t1_is37eg2 wrote

Depending on location, supply can be super volatile too. For instance if you source most of your lithium from China, and relations strain, things can get shaky on the market level real fast.


SatanLifeProTips t1_is3u6gf wrote

Validation for an automotive cell also takes about 5 years unless it is a mild chemistry tweak of a known good design.


boonepii t1_is44s2u wrote

Yup, R&D centers are easier to spin up with small production lines. But that won’t cut it for manufacturing in volume. So in year 2-3 of validation is when the buildings to scale manufacturing break ground so hopefully they will be fully productive at the perfect time.

That’s a serious gant chart. Lol


moosemasher t1_is48nnz wrote

Aviation going to take a whole lot longer than that too


SatanLifeProTips t1_is5kwqx wrote

Yes it will.

A buddy is a Helicopter pilot and told me they replaced his twin batteries with a single battery from Tesla funny enough. The tech transfer is finally happening.