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dontpet t1_is7p2fw wrote

Great news. And China alone installing 100 GW this year is remarkable.

530 GW industrial capacity, if fully used, would significantly alter our climate change pathway.

Plus more growth in future years...

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ForHidingSquirrels OP t1_is7j2xo wrote

Since sometime in 2015, when solar growth really started picking up in terms of total volume - we've been hearing that growth rates won't keep up when growing from a larger base...but here we are in 2022 - with a projected 30% global growth this year, and almost the same amount last, yeah - but something foolishly large projected for next year - 100% manufacturing capacity growth?

Tells me I should ignore most things said to me in2015.

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grundar t1_isb5cv7 wrote

> here we are in 2022 - with a projected 30% global growth this year

Actual generation in 1H2022 shows that projection is realistic. Comparing to actual 2021 generation, we see wind is up over 20% YOY and solar is up over 25%.

Estimating the actual growth rate is a little tricky, as we have full-year 2021 vs the increase between 1H2021 and 1H2022, but a little napkin math gives ~22% increase pace for wind and ~30% pace for solar. Weighting those by their share of generation gives a 25% increase from 2021 to 2022 in energy generated, meaning wind+solar will increase from 10% of global electricity generation in 2021 to about 12.5% of global electricity generation in 2022.

That's a surprisingly rapid rate of conversion, and it's even more astonishing that it's still growing 25% yearly. That growth rate can't continue forever, of course, but it's continued longer than I think most people would have guessed. That growth rate falling to 0 over the next 5 years (+20% then +15%, etc.) is a fairly pessimistic trajectory, but even that would result in 60% growth, meaning ~4% of global electricity generation being converted to clean power annually. As fossil fuels currently provide 60% of electricity, that pace would see fossil fuels squeezed down to a small share (20%) by 2035.

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yesididthat t1_isac760 wrote

>Tells me I should ignore most things said to me in2015.

Yes and in 2029 we'll all look back and laugh at your prediction for next year

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edward414 t1_is7p4b6 wrote

The new solar tax credit is starting in 2023. I assume demand is going to even this out.

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bakelandy t1_is7tx9i wrote

This is seriously, not even joking, the best news I have read all day.

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ttystikk t1_is7s98w wrote

The more panels, the better!

It's really important to keep ramping up the pace of manufacture so that the world can keep installing more panels on an exponential curve. That's the only way the industry can catch up with demand and replace existing fossil fuels based generation of all kinds.

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gnudarve t1_is8xrt1 wrote

This triggers the right because they still fantasize about electric cars crashing the grid.

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iluvios t1_isajlcz wrote

Never in hell this happens if capitalist can make money out of people having electricity.

That's the beauty and horror of capitalism.

If it's profitable, people would make tons of that shit. Doesn't matter if useful or not.

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pinkfootthegoose t1_is7y2zv wrote

I think with the war in Ukraine there is plenty of people hedging their bets in getting solar instead of relying on a stable energy supply.

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melbourne3k t1_is9uj2b wrote

I think historians will look back in 100 years and write thousands of books on the irony of Putin launching a war to steal fossil fuels by leveraging his control of gas to subdue Europe, but that exploding in his face and becoming the flash point of the green revolution in stronger, more unified Europe.

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darth_-_maul t1_is891u3 wrote

Stable? More like volatile

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pinkfootthegoose t1_is8cune wrote

I mean they can't rely on a stable energy/oil/gas supply.

better wording would be "instead of relying on energy supplies being stable. "

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JeromeGnome32 t1_is9mlyy wrote

Looked into installing solar this year. 1100 kwh system was going to cost 40k+ before tax credit. Still doesn't seem to be getting cheap enough for most of America.

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sunsparkda t1_is9nn6o wrote

Grid level solar is affected as well, and communities can work together to install microgrids when it's too costly for most individuals in the consumers.

People too poor to install solar on their homes still benefit.

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NellikFPV t1_isafr5g wrote

Geez you yanks are really getting ripped off! - my 6.6kW (10MWh/yr) solar system cost me ~$6000 AUD installed 4 years ago. It has already paid for itself.

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ForHidingSquirrels OP t1_is9u3hf wrote

You got a shitty quote - 33% cheaper than that price

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JeromeGnome32 t1_is9v4ku wrote

Got quotes from three different companies and they were all at least that or higher 🤷

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ForHidingSquirrels OP t1_is9whj2 wrote

That’s the price for people looking to put no money down and get cheap finance

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Current_Panic63 t1_isae8e1 wrote

1100 kWh? What’s the kW size?

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JeromeGnome32 t1_isah2ia wrote

I went back and looked at the quote to give more exact numbers. 11.20 kW system. Year production was expected to be 11,433 kWh. This was for the second cheapest $42,000 system. The cheaper one was sent by an expiring sharefile so I no longer have access to it. Third Sun Solar. Cheapest I found was EcoHouse but still 40k.

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Current_Panic63 t1_isakaem wrote

You should get some quotes on energysage. Also, does Tesla install in your area? They will give you, sight unseen, a quote that’s way cheaper

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caesar15 t1_isc9fha wrote

Residential rooftop solar is always going to be more expensive than utility solar (power plants) unfortunately. Even if you made the panels free, the cost of adjusting them to your roof, hooking it up to the grid, and then paying your utility will always be high. Not to mention what you’d pay in your area could be very different than someone else.

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MeteorOnMars t1_isaxqwq wrote

Solar is being installed at a rate faster than required to charge every new vehicle (car and truck) as an EV!

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foot7221 t1_is8m5uf wrote

Yes please. If anything needs to be cheap it’s renewable energy

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FuturologyBot t1_is7ojvc wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/ForHidingSquirrels:

Since sometime in 2015, when solar growth really started picking up in terms of total volume - we've been hearing that growth rates won't keep up when growing from a larger base...but here we are in 2022 - with a projected 30% global growth this year, and almost the same amount last, yeah - but something foolishly large projected for next year - 100% manufacturing capacity growth?

Tells me I should ignore most things said to me in2015.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/y3antd/solar_silicon_manufacturing_about_doubling_from/is7j2xo/

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ttystikk t1_is7rxjx wrote

The more panels, the better!

It's really important to keep ramping up the pace of manufacture so that the world can keep installing more panels on an exponential curve. That's the only way the industry can catch up with demand and replace existing fossil fuels based generation of all kinds.

1

babyyodaisamazing98 t1_isa5wxh wrote

I looked into solar this year and to get a 6kW system for my house was nearly $35,000 without financing. Payoff time was 29 years with only a 20 year warranty. We still have a long way to go. If price drops another 90% then we’ll probably see some real adoption.

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del0niks t1_isabcnb wrote

That's insane. I got 4.8 kW for £4900 (~$5500) in the UK this summer. It was less than a day's work for the installation team to put up on the house roof. Where does the extra ~$28,000 go? Import taxes? Massive profits?

Prices are even lower in Australia and obviously the amount of electricity produced per kW higher than in the UK so even more of an incentive to install.

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babyyodaisamazing98 t1_isarsxn wrote

Wow if I could get it at that price I would have done it immediately. That would be like a 4 year payoff for me, no brainer.

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del0niks t1_iscexl1 wrote

Yeah, I really don't understand it. The wholesale price of the kit itself makes up roughly a little over half here, there isn't so much labour involved in putting it up (not much more than half a day for 4 guys) so I don't understand how it could be so expensive. Utility PV prices in the US don't seem to be unusually high.

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Surur t1_isboo2n wrote

There will be no over-supply. Given 2022, everyone with any spare cash will be investing in their own energy generation.

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Slivizasmet t1_is9sz6z wrote

It will be nice if the housing market prices droped too so i have a roof where i can then put those solar panels on.

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mango-vitc t1_is9gbo5 wrote

Hasn’t it really been the efficiency, and not just the cost that is the issue?

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netz_pirat t1_is9hxu5 wrote

Efficiency doesn't matter that much, if the energy source is the sun.

In the end, it's the kwh/€ that matter.

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Kevin_Jim t1_is9ivsy wrote

And with solar and to some degree wind, you have the added cost of energy storage. Still comes up ahead of any other power other than maybe nuclear (in some cases).

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netz_pirat t1_is9j5me wrote

You only have the added cost if you actually store it.

If you usually run on coal all day, but now cover daytime with solar, you only burn half as much coal as you did before. If the weather is shitty, you are back to coal, but that's still better than burning it all the time.

Yeah, storage is a big issue for the future, but right now, in most areas, we're not at a point yet where we really need it.

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Drachefly t1_is9y3hd wrote

Right - storage is only critical when we're seriously trying to cut into nighttime power usage. That is a large part! But until then it's mainly planning ahead and trying things out.

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Kevin_Jim t1_is9nw09 wrote

It doesn’t really work that way, though. Power plants need to maintain a relatively steady load. Unless we are talking about peaker plants which tend to be gas powered, battery powered, or hydro-pump powered.

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netz_pirat t1_is9ulml wrote

That's why Germany is phasing out both nuclear and coal, yes.

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