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yiannistheman t1_iugeyl2 wrote

Reply to comment by fish-rides-bike in Antarctica's emperor penguins at risk of extinction due to the climate crisis by mossadnik

As always, it's best to go to the source and ignore the mainstream media's spin.

https://www.fws.gov/press-release/2022-10/emperor-penguin-gets-endangered-species-act-protections

>While emperor penguin populations appear to be currently stable, the Service has determined the species is in danger of extinction in the foreseeable future in a significant portion of its range. There are approximately 61 breeding colonies along the coastline of Antarctica, and the species’ population size is estimated to be between 270,000 - 280,000 breeding pairs or 625,000 - 650,000 individual birds.
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>However, according to the best available science, by 2050 their global population size will likely decrease by 26 percent (to approximately 185,000 breeding pairs) to 47 percent (to approximately 132,500 breeding pairs) under low and high carbon emissions scenarios, respectively.
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>The estimated decrease in population size is not equal across Antarctica. The Ross and Weddell Seas are strongholds for the species, and populations in these areas will most likely remain stable. However, emperor penguin colonies within the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific Ocean, and Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sectors are projected to decline by over 90 percent due to melting sea ice.
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>While this estimated decline is concerning, listing the emperor penguin as threatened under the ESA comes while there is still time to prevent the species from extinction.

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TL/DR - the population is currently stable but based on the current state of their habitat and the rate that it's declining, actions need to be taken now to help preserve the species before decline sets in and it's irreversible.

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fish-rides-bike t1_iugfg14 wrote

It’s not declining.

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yiannistheman t1_iughejo wrote

Their habitat across all regions in Antarctica is certainly declining.

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jaceapoc t1_iuhj67f wrote

Ever watched “Chernobyl” the TV show? You sound like that dude who’s in absolute denial and keeps on saying “You didn’t see the core”.

The margin is closing. You’re just being that dude saying “we’re ok” while looking at the ice melting away a few feet from you. When the ice has become liquid water beneath your feet, you’ll finally say “ok we’re fucked” but that’ll be too late, as your lungs fill with water you’ll probably wish you’d have done something about it earlier when you saw it coming.

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fish-rides-bike t1_iuhx56d wrote

“At risk of extinction” implies their number is dropping and soon to hit zero. The story does not say this — in fact if reports the population is stable. It’s a story about habitat decline. “Habitat of emperor penguins at risk” is the accurate title.

I’m the dude that wants accuracy and precision in reporting.

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Tech_Philosophy t1_iuijb36 wrote

> At risk of extinction” implies their number is dropping and soon to hit zero.

That's already extinct because it's too late to do anything about it at that point. We can accurately predict how long their habitat can hold out, and we barely have time left to do anything about it. We are steering an ocean-liner here, not a jet-ski.

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fish-rides-bike t1_iuip2i1 wrote

Remember the polar bear extinction prediction in 2006 or so? Today, 16 years on, there are more polar bears than ever. Remember that emaciated bear photograph? It wasn’t unusual — they typically look like that in spring, and they only really ever die of starvation because they aren’t predated.

I’m not saying climate change isn’t real. I’m saying shrill alarmism causes worry fatigue and misdirection of energies.

To use your metaphor, yes it’s an ocean-liner not a jet-ski, and it’s an ocean, not a lake.

Accurate and precise reporting leads to accurate and precise solutions. Hair on fire alarmism at the helm leads to capsized ships

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