lughnasadh OP t1_itcsmng wrote
Submission Statement
Astrobiotic and Intuitive Machines are the two others aiming to launch in 2023.
If all these companies succeed it will mean landing payloads on the moon will be as cheap as 10's of millions of $/€, perhaps as time goes on at the lower end of that estimate. I can see lots of takers for these missions. Academic institutions across the globe must be a market worth hundreds of millions a year at these prices. Not to mention the world's different space agencies sub-contracting out missions.
I wonder how a commercial lunar economy can take off on its own? It strikes me that governments will have to seed the first billions. But how many - 10's or 100's of billions?
BillHicksScream t1_itd5uaf wrote
Since most of it will be selling access to research & development programs, its still going to be government funded forever, not to mention paying for all the brains. The "industry" will be exploration & problem solving, maybe sell viles of moon dust. The number one outcome (edit: besides science knowledge) will be "Nope, does not work" since its mostly unknowns.
Hopefully this is just bad PR:
- At ispace, we’ve turned our attention to the Moon. By taking advantage of lunar water resources, we can develop the space infrastructure needed to enrich our daily lives on earth, as well as expand our living sphere into space. Also, by making the Earth and Moon one system, a new economy with space infrastructure at its core will support human life, making sustainability a reality. This result is our ultimate goal, and our search for water on the Moon is the first step to achieving that goal.
Space is not Earth. None of the rules or examples apply. Think about any accident in Earth: cleanup & investigation is easier when we can just walk around and pick up the parts.
The wealth & development from The Age of Exploration was thanks to free & cheap resources with high survival rates. Fish, rainwater & air to breath abound, while wind + ocean power are free, a hole in the boat can be fixed & the man overboard! can swim.
But there is no "limping into port" in Space.
Zren8989 t1_itfhd6j wrote
Not even on aux power and just inertia? Or is space not frictionless?
BillHicksScream t1_itgdzjm wrote
That's just a metaphor for the the massive barriers and dangers of space. A hole in a sea ship vs a space ship? Huge difference.
If a ship starts slowly sinking just off shore, recovery of people & goods is easy. In Space its almost impossible.
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