Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

lughnasadh OP t1_itcsmng wrote

Submission Statement

Astrobiotic and Intuitive Machines are the two others aiming to launch in 2023.

If all these companies succeed it will mean landing payloads on the moon will be as cheap as 10's of millions of $/€, perhaps as time goes on at the lower end of that estimate. I can see lots of takers for these missions. Academic institutions across the globe must be a market worth hundreds of millions a year at these prices. Not to mention the world's different space agencies sub-contracting out missions.

I wonder how a commercial lunar economy can take off on its own? It strikes me that governments will have to seed the first billions. But how many - 10's or 100's of billions?

13

FuturologyBot t1_itcx91m wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/lughnasadh:

Submission Statement

Astrobiotic and Intuitive Machines are the two others aiming to launch in 2023.

If all these companies succeed it will mean landing payloads on the moon will be as cheap as 10's of millions of $/€, perhaps as time goes on at the lower end of that estimate. I can see lots of takers for these missions. Academic institutions across the globe must be a market worth hundreds of millions a year at these prices. Not to mention the world's different space agencies sub-contracting out missions.

I wonder how a commercial lunar economy can take off on its own? It strikes me that governments will have to seed the first billions. But how many - 10's or 100's of billions?

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yatny5/next_month_japanese_company_ispace_will_become/itcsmng/

1

ReturnOfSeq t1_itd1kqt wrote

Now we’re going to find out if those international agreements not to mine the moon are worth anything. My guess is, of course they’re fucking not

72

GeetchNixon t1_itd2188 wrote

For eons, humans have stared up in wonder at the beautiful moon gracing our night skies. We’ve used it to measure the passage of time based on how much of its surface was lit up each night, and predict the tides. It’s helped us to foresee solar eclipses, and determine our position in the cosmos. But now, courtesy of a bizarre profit-driven mindvirus that has most of humanity captivated, we look up at the moon and wonder how to make a buck off of it. Seems shallow.

18

ios_static t1_itd4vbs wrote

I just googled if people or countries can buy or claim land on the moon. Good read

1

Airy_mtn t1_itd5bes wrote

Hopefully they establish a "if you pack it in, pack it out" policy.

57

BillHicksScream t1_itd5uaf wrote

Replying to lughnasadh (#180,180)

Since most of it will be selling access to research & development programs, its still going to be government funded forever, not to mention paying for all the brains. The "industry" will be exploration & problem solving, maybe sell viles of moon dust. The number one outcome (edit: besides science knowledge) will be "Nope, does not work" since its mostly unknowns.

Hopefully this is just bad PR:

  • At ispace, we’ve turned our attention to the Moon. By taking advantage of lunar water resources, we can develop the space infrastructure needed to enrich our daily lives on earth, as well as expand our living sphere into space. Also, by making the Earth and Moon one system, a new economy with space infrastructure at its core will support human life, making sustainability a reality. This result is our ultimate goal, and our search for water on the Moon is the first step to achieving that goal.

Space is not Earth. None of the rules or examples apply. Think about any accident in Earth: cleanup & investigation is easier when we can just walk around and pick up the parts.

The wealth & development from The Age of Exploration was thanks to free & cheap resources with high survival rates. Fish, rainwater & air to breath abound, while wind + ocean power are free, a hole in the boat can be fixed & the man overboard! can swim.

But there is no "limping into port" in Space.

8

fringecar t1_itd8biy wrote

Wait they just announced they are landing on the moon, and they are doing it next month?

Doesn't this stuff take years and billions of dollars? Have my news apps been feeding me garbage and I'm clueless about a ton of cool shit just because the US isn't doing it?

2

axecrazyorc t1_itdbpns wrote

Replying to fringecar (#181,142)

I mean. Yeah, if you’re American. Most of our news would rather we forget other countries exist until we’re at war with them. Can’t have us comparing them to the US realizing we’re getting shit and expected to be thankful.

1

cecilmeyer t1_itdd5ix wrote

We can only hope. Instead of wasting money on weapons and war maybe humanity will start using its resources for something productive.

19

static1053 t1_itdfk15 wrote

So all those people that bought property on the moon in the 90s are actually going to make.....money?

Wonder if any are still alive lol.

5

hell-yeah-man t1_itdh0gt wrote

Replying to Spacemanspalds (#181,155)

I’m no physics expert so if someone knows better definitely reply, but I doubt we could (almost) ever affect our gravitational alignment without mining an absolute shitload off the moon. There would of course be small effects, measured mostly from precise math, but to affect everything in a way that would be problematic would involve removing a HUGE chunk from the moon. Like, bigger than we can fathom chunk.

7

parkalag t1_itdnb7k wrote

Replying to fringecar (#181,142)

I mean it’s not crewed. It’s not easy but certainly not a billion dollar endeavor if you do it correctly. They’re also not the first to try. Just next in line to be the first to succeed

1

Pythagoras_314 t1_itdof1k wrote

It’s likely part of the Artemis mission being done by NASA. The idea is to pre-stage a bunch of stuff on the moon (including a hub orbiting the moon that the lander leaves from/returns to) instead of including it all in the lander like the Apollo missions did.

1

hell-yeah-man t1_itdpehm wrote

Replying to Spacemanspalds (#181,722)

Well with some weak google searches I got ~90 tons extracted per year from the earth in total, should be recent but didn’t check too closely. And with the moon having a mass of about 8.1^19 tons it would take us about 2 quadrillion years to mine it all, but to affect earth it would be way less so my guess with no background knowledge is 1/30th the moons weight. To remove would probably take about 68 trillion years, I don’t feel like accounting for optimization of the industry and such, but I still doubt we can do it in any timeframe that we can affect.

Edit: you would also have to account for the moons orbit in how you moved the materials from the planet. But sorry for the long reply lol, had fun with some guesses.

6

Frogmarsh t1_itdtght wrote

What economic return are they securing here? I don’t see what is being gained commercially and find it weird that it isn’t described in the article.

19

Ayeager77 t1_itdzbw2 wrote

Things are starting to feel like the show For All Mankind.

5

Black_RL t1_ite27qw wrote

Hope so, it’s right there.

Also, you can do whatever you like there, it’s not like you’re going to kill any species.

1

Raspberries-Are-Evil t1_ite8khd wrote

How does “iSpace” not get sued by Apple?

Please dont remove this for being too short- its a serious question. Hopefully its now long enough to remain.

1

Thismonday t1_itebxqc wrote

iSpace really ! Could you ever imagine having a brains to create a lunar lander but all you could come up with for a company name was iSpace . This is why people question if we ever really went to the moon .

3

JustJeff88 t1_itec2xy wrote

How exciting. Massive companies going to the moon because they've fucked up the earth so much. Also, spending billions to go to the moon instead of using that wealth and labour to actually address problems on this planet.

Yeah, this is not laudable.

2

internet_spy t1_itefqam wrote

Ispace is coming back to earth with lunar titanium to start making gumdam suits for the war

1

Kaiju_zero t1_iteq7rb wrote

Ok Amazon workers.. get out now. You think you had to pee in a bottle on a 12 hour route.. imagine the expected next day delivery to the moon.

Invest in diaper stocks, now.

1

Firm_Masterpiece_343 t1_itew3zd wrote

Commercialism of the moon could be profitable with all the chemicals that could be found in a natural vacuum environment. Plus a limited atmosphere, and no life equals a no limit on testing.

1

watchwatcheswatchest t1_itexfc0 wrote

Replying to ReturnOfSeq (#180,721)

There is no generally recognized treaty not to mine the Moon. The Outer Space Treaty says you cant own land on the Moon, but the UN Hague space resources working group has specifically worked on what is and isn’t appropriate for Lunar economic activity.

3

watchwatcheswatchest t1_iteyea6 wrote

The Lunar economy will start when there is an established value chain and customer. iSpace is making landers and rovers. I hope they succeed, though its not guaranteed; the last two tries by governments to land on the Moon failed. iSpace has not made any inroads with other space resource tech development such as water harvesting and oxygen extraction near term, maybe He3 and metals long term. Each of those resources require multiple stages of extraction and processing to make them useful. Until all of it is in place there is no economy. Allegories such as selling picks to gold miners in the gold rush are extremely weak because of how much VC / government money it takes to do it.

6

YaAbsolyutnoNikto t1_itffcsj wrote

Replying to Frogmarsh (#182,411)

Due to the lower gravitational pull of the moon compared to earth, launching rockets there consumes a lot less energy.

In other words, it is cheaper and easier to have rockets flying around. It also means that rockets can carry more cargo for the same amount of fuel.

So, this all means that mining for resources in asteroids, planets, etc. can be much more easily done.

This is great because we do need resources. Some of them are scarce on earth. Others require us to destroy ecosystems to get them (like diamonds, lithium, etc.).

8

millank24 t1_itfrcqu wrote

Bro imma be mad if so many buildings pop up on the moon we won’t get any moon light.

1

Jaster_Rogue t1_itfxg44 wrote

In about 2 years Ritsuko City will be built on the moon and then begins the golden age of Star Piloting!

1

lostoneY t1_itfxh83 wrote

Ah great. As if one economy wasn't enough. And we have way too many people here thinking it's a good idea

2

adityabalaraman t1_itg117f wrote

This feels like the first step in the "let's dump all our trash on the moon" strategy

1

anglesideside1 t1_itg784e wrote

Replying to YaAbsolyutnoNikto (#187,856)

Seems like a money pit, and until there’s an actual hard cost imposed to destroying ecosystems (I’m not talking about socialized costs associated with climate change), then it’ll be cheaper to mine whatever minerals here.

2

BillHicksScream t1_itgdzjm wrote

Replying to Zren8989 (#186,427)

That's just a metaphor for the the massive barriers and dangers of space. A hole in a sea ship vs a space ship? Huge difference.

If a ship starts slowly sinking just off shore, recovery of people & goods is easy. In Space its almost impossible.

1

Heirophantagonist t1_ith8hf7 wrote

It's definitely the start of a new way to exploit people and resources.

1

dantemp t1_itk9o4y wrote

Replying to anglesideside1 (#187,933)

Asteroid mining will definitely become a major industry. The question isn't if, the question is when. You might be right that the first few attempt fail but only because we'd have to work out the kinks, not because having an infinite resource that nobody has a claim on is a bad idea.

1