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Not_Legal_Advice_Pod t1_iwesg1h wrote

Let's say Phoenix is the easiest city in the USA for SDC's and only requires 50% of the skills needed to drive every city, that still means they've basically been learning at 5% a year and next year its 55%, the year after 60% and at each interval more cities fall inside their performance window. I'll put money on the average ten year old never getting a license.

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r4wbeef t1_iwf8z5x wrote

That's assuming progress / difficulty is linear. It's probably not. It probably gets harder and harder to drive a smaller and smaller bit better. Think about skill acquisition. You can figure out the basics of a lot of stuff in like 30 hours, at least well enough to bullshit the average Joe. Mastery takes thousands of hours.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if current self driving was in that first 30 hours phase.

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bremidon t1_iwfqay7 wrote

This is not the problem with Waymo's strategy. They use digital rails, and the problem with that is as they try to expand, they have to increase the amount of map prep. And the need never stops, because streets never stop changing.

This kinda works if you keep your supported region small and in a heavily used area. It completely falls apart when you want to expand anywhere that is not so small and not so heavily used.

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Snoo-71082 t1_iwewtmy wrote

It’s definitely gonna happen just not as soon as people and shareholders will want.

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