avatarname t1_ix9xz9j wrote on November 21, 2022 at 9:34 PM

To be honest though, as a Latvian I can say that in 1990 a lot of people in Latvia were recent Russian speaking immigrants from other Soviet republics who left, either to go back to their countries or West in the later years so the decline has been not as much about ethnic Latvians or Latvians who have lived here for generations, but of first generation immigrants.

But yes, it is and will be a challenge going forward.

pcvcolin t1_ixb1ffb wrote on November 22, 2022 at 2:30 AM

Do you have some thoughts about how this can lead to "Western tourism" of a less ideal sort, that is, people from the U.S. or Canada (for example) visiting Latvia looking specifically for a wife (and having expectations that Latvian women will be "available," etc.)?

Note: for the U.S., last I checked, the Visa waiver program includes:

Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brunei, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom.

So, Latvians can go to the U.S.A. without a visa if there has been a "romantic arrangement" between a U.S. citizen and Latvian citizen in Latvia (or if they have agreed online to do so). Not saying I think this is a wonderful practice or anything - in fact it has inherent dangers - just making the observation that it is possible. It's routine practice for the U.S. to keep on with the Visa waiver program for countries that meet certain standards. This in turn has implications for travel and net outmigration over time.

YWAK98alum t1_ixcr3gf wrote on November 22, 2022 at 1:47 PM

Even ignoring the possible ick factor of marriage tourism (obviously we'd be talking about here only about the self-selecting subset of people who see no ick factor), I don't see how that marriage-market dynamic would work unless there were a substantial gender imbalance in emigration, leaving more women than men. That's not what I'd bet is happening.

pcvcolin t1_ixcrztm wrote on November 22, 2022 at 1:55 PM

OP's submission statement in part:

"Submission Statement:

(...)

>Over the next three decades, Latvia, having already shed nearly 30% of its population since 1990, is set to lose 23.5% more.

>One factor behind this dramatic decline is global. Across the industrialised world, fertility rates are plunging: two-thirds of the world’s population now live in countries with a birthrate below the 2.1 births per woman necessary for natural replacement.

>But crucially, like many of the former Soviet states, especially those that joined the EU with its right to work and live across the bloc, Latvia – present population just under 2m – has also suffered successive waves of emigration, as young people leave for more money abroad.

Seems like you can't ignore the possibility of international marriage economies in that net outmigration overview / analysis.

avatarname t1_ixeivk1 wrote on November 22, 2022 at 9:00 PM

The thing is the outmigration stuff is good few years old, with rising salaries today it is not that much of a concern, especially going forward. Main concern now is that more people die than are born.

pcvcolin t1_ixggupm wrote on November 23, 2022 at 6:46 AM

Latvia - Historical Population Growth Rate

Year Pop. Growth Rate Growth Rate

2022 1,850,651 -1.24%

2021 1,873,919 -1.22%

2020 1,897,052 -1.02%

2019 1,916,555 -0.99%

2018 1,935,630 -0.98%

2017 1,954,862 -0.94%

2016 1,973,476 -0.93%

2015 1,991,955 -0.95%

The current net migration rate for Latvia in 2022 is -5.002 per 1000 population, a 11.64% decline from 2021.

The net migration rate for Latvia in 2021 was -5.661 per 1000 population, a 10.44% decline from 2020.

The net migration rate for Latvia in 2020 was -6.321 per 1000 population, a 9.44% decline from 2019.

The net migration rate for Latvia in 2019 was -6.980 per 1000 population, a 8.64% decline from 2018.

Etc

avatarname t1_ixhi8vw wrote on November 23, 2022 at 2:16 PM

Where are these numbers from?

Official statistics of Latvia show 1,895,400 people living in Latvia on Oct 1, 2022. Even if we discount 36 thousand Ukrainian refugees which are included in this number, we have a bit less than 1,859,000 something.

avatarname t1_ixeijir wrote on November 22, 2022 at 8:58 PM

This was more of a case in the 90s, nowadays Latvia is more economically developed for this to be a huge concern. Even the population decrease at the moment is more due to the fact that way less people are born than die, not due to emigration of Latvians, as approx the same number of people arrive in Latvia as leave it. With Ukrainian refugees there has even been population increase this year so all these estimates may also change if there is more instability in the region in Russian speaking countries and we have more relaxed immigration policy (it has also been rather strict compared to say Poland, since we already have a big Russian speaking minority, like you cannot employ a Ukrainian or Belorussian or anyone for minimum wage in Latvia, you can only pay them above average wage and only if a Latvian is not applying for the same job, of course there are ways how to avoid this, usually they employ a dude in Poland or Lithuania where it is way more relaxed and then send them here as a contractor or sth like that, but it is more tricky)

Latvians can go to USA visa free without any engagement, well at least to travel. But if people leave Latvia for work, it is today mainly to other EU countries, no need to travel so far away from home for better salaries and also no need for work permits or green card. Also Norway, due to high salaries, and still UK, although maybe rules are more tight now.