Submitted by gaudiocomplex t3_zxnskd in Futurology
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Comments
Ghostglitch07 t1_j22d8q7 wrote
Kinda feels like someone seeing the kitty hawk flight and panicking about what we'll do when we make it to Mars.
Spunge14 t1_j23pdr6 wrote
You don't have to be afraid of AGI to see that AI is about to entirely transform most industries.
I would say a lot of people should be ready for a shuffle this decade.
walterhartwellblack t1_j23vuug wrote
>You don't have to be afraid of AGI to see that AI is about to entirely transform most industries.
Just like the automobile and the computer.
NeverEndingCoralMaze t1_j24igc1 wrote
Real estate is one. Zillow is working on it. They even launched a brokerage that heavily relied on AI and they lost a ton.
One good area is medicine. My psychiatrist recently retired; I started using Brightside and their providers get AI advice on which meds will work best for their patients based on symptoms and feedback about previous drugs used. My new doc recommended a change to one of the two antidepressants I use, based on my results, and the difference has been awesome. I had no idea it could get better than it was. Zero side effects now.
Spunge14 t1_j26ay8r wrote
I think about medicine a lot too. Basic radiologist will be an essentially non-existent job.
NeverEndingCoralMaze t1_j27toga wrote
They’re not far off. Pay attention to the X-ray monitor for the carryons next time you go through security at the airport. You’ll see it highlight certain items that alert the tsa agent to take a closer look. I know it isn’t the same as diagnosing a human, but it is the start.
Rapscallious1 t1_j240lvb wrote
There’s a big difference between whatever a lot and shuffle means vs most and unemployed means though. I do think people will need to be more open to mid career re-training than they have been traditionally.
MagneSTic t1_j245q0e wrote
“About to” in at best a couple decades. AI is about to be the next fusion energy.
Introsium t1_j24bcn7 wrote
As of a couple of weeks ago, a public, free-to-use LLM-based AI can just casually pass the BAR. It has the fastest adoption curve of anything — anything — we’ve seen in our lifetime.
I’ve already seen the explosion. I’m just waiting for the shockwave.
MagneSTic t1_j24c241 wrote
That doesn’t really surprise or impress me tbh. It’s a computer, which benefits from having a far better memory and recall than a human while also not drinking, partying, or being distracted, passing a standardized test. You could program a non-AI to do something like that. An AI passing a standardized test is line you or me passing it with a searchable answer key.
Introsium t1_j24d816 wrote
You could program a non-AI to perform any given task, but the entire point of my statement is that it casually passes the exam. It was not programmed to do that, but that doesn’t stop it from passing what’s commonly regarded as a very hard test. It simultaneously crushes programming challenges. But, most importantly, it can do most people’s jobs. It can’t do all of them perfectly but it can do them much cheaper than humans can for the loss in quality.
You’re looking at a Fabricator and saying “but that other machine can build a car, this isn’t really impressive”, which is entirely missing the point.
DoktoroKiu t1_j24lxlt wrote
It may have passed the test, but I would not use this as an indication that it could represent you in court. Unless it is fundamentally different than the other large language models it will confidently lie and is only really "motivated" to produce probable responses to given prompts.
The AI they trained on only research papers was shut down very quickly when it started making very detailed lies citing studies that seem plausible yet don't exist.
Now this is by no means an unsolvable problem, but solving it is not something we can just assume. AI alignment is not an easy problem.
[deleted] t1_j24dfmg wrote
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IsntThisWonderful t1_j24ipap wrote
Oh, yeah. You could totally just pass the bar with Google search. Sure. Tell me more of your fanciful tales of professions you know nothing about!
#ConfidentlyIncorrect
PapaverOneirium t1_j22lhmj wrote
thank you. I’m so tired of the AGI histrionics just because some highly specialized tools can make some pretty pictures and write high school grade essays.
Yes, it is very impressive and current applications are disrupting industries and will do so much more and quickly. No, it does not mean AGI is right around the corner.
CoolioMcCool t1_j23aev6 wrote
Not a true AGI, but tools powerful enough to make a significant portion of jobs obsolete feels very close. Change has been accelerating(basically forever) and we now live in a world that is very different from a decade ago, whereas centuries used to pass where not much changed and most died in a world similar to the one they were born in.
It's definitely something we should think about before it is right around the corner, and it is plausible in our lifetimes(I guess depending on your age).
daveescaped t1_j23rrsm wrote
Most people view my job in purchasing as a series of binary choices between A and B where information is gathered on both alternatives and then the information is evaluated and a clear winner is selected. That could not be further from the truth.
Business is typically the activity is selecting amount many mediocre options. What humans are good at is presenting the option THEY selected as the superior option when in truth, all options are mediocre. A good employee then ensures that the option they championed succeeds so as to bolster their claims about having selected the best option (and not because it actually was best). This isn’t to say that all options are equal. Some are better. But the determination of which is best is often very subtle. And the skill isn’t simply selecting the best option. It is expediting that option. It is ensuring the purchase is implemented properly.
I guess my point isn’t that my job is difficult. It’s that it is a combination of subtle decisions that the employees themselves are unaware they are making. How would you ever program activities that exceed the conscious mind itself?
How would AI sell a new car using persuasion? How would AI convince a patient they are going to be OK? How would AI mediate a messy divorce? How would AI help a student struggling to grasp a difficult concept?
Honestly, I think some folks imagine some jobs are just these constant analytical, objective choices.
CoolioMcCool t1_j23tmzs wrote
I think many folk understimate AI. We can essentially program for outcomes and let the AI figure it out from there.
Sure, people will still be needed for a lot of stuff and for the foreseeable future they will be making the high level decisions and giving the AI goals, but it will still have the power to automate a lot of jobs.
We are incremental improvements away from convincing dialogue with humans, there goes many phone based roles(tech/customer support and sales). Driving(freight, delivery), factories, fast food, cashiers. All could easily be on their way out soon if we don't actively try to stop it. New roles will come up, but likely in much lower numbers.
daveescaped t1_j240pcx wrote
Those a pretty minor roles. Show me the AI that can provide useful marital advice.
CoolioMcCool t1_j266ly5 wrote
Pretty minor roles probably make up 50+% of the workforce.
What are all the people with no jobs going to do?
jackl24000 t1_j24sglg wrote
Yeah, but try to imagine in any foreseeable future you’d turn loose on e.g., customer facing tasks involving potentially disputed or ambiguous issues like warrantee eligibility and spouting nonsensical corporate gobbledegook to your good customers who are infuriated by the time it gets kicked to a human?
Or any other high value or mission critical interaction with other humans?
How do such systems to replace most human interactions with AGI deal with black swan events not in training sets like natural disasters, pandemics, etc.
CoolioMcCool t1_j267f0m wrote
Ok, so the narrow AIs that are coming in the next several years will only be able to do the job 95% of the time. It'll still take a lot of jobs. What do we do with all of the people it replaces?
Honestly a lot of these replies read like people are threatened and being defensive "there's no way it could do MY job".
Cool. It will be able to do a lot of stuff and massively reduce the number of jobs that require people is my point. What do we do about all of the unemployment?
jackl24000 t1_j26as9o wrote
Try reading it more like trying to understand how this would work, not from a worried worker bee’s perspective, but more from his manager or line executive worried about having to clean up messes caused by a possibly wrong cost saving calculus. Just like today having to backstop your more incompetent employees mistakes or omissions.
And maybe we’ll also figure out the other AGI piece: Universal Basic Income to share in this productivity boon if it happens, not just create a few more billionaires.
CoolioMcCool t1_j26ij1g wrote
As you hinted at, incompetent employees already make expensive mistakes. Once AI gets to a point where it makes less expensive mistakes, employers would be incentivised to replace the people with machines.
Driving is an easy example, humans crash, AI will still get involved in crashes, but if it is involved in significantly fewer crashes then it would seem almost irresponsible to have humans driving.
I think ultimately it just comes down to me having higher expectations of AI ability than others.
Have you played around with chat gpt? I'd highly recommend it, it's pretty incredible, and a lot of it's limitations are ones that have been intentionally placed on it e.g. it doesn't have access to information from the last year or 2, and there are certain topics it has been restricted from talking about(e.g. race issues and religion).
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j23r6xc wrote
Nah, people need to feel superior.
Stillwater215 t1_j23uicc wrote
The thing I keep worrying myself about is that any AI doesn’t need to be perfect to be threatening to peoples jobs, it just needs to be better and cheaper. We’re definitely heading to cheaper, and given that ChatGPT is already being used by students to help with essay writing, we’re not that far off from it being better.
Labrat5944 t1_j24k0xk wrote
Right? Especially in the US, where we can’t even agree that pregnant women might need to recover from giving birth.
Even if most jobs were obsolete and the majority of the population was unemployed, there are plenty of politicians who would rather Logan’s Run all of the “unproductives” rather than vote in AGI.
jamesj t1_j2365eh wrote
I wish your confidence was founded
snowbirdnerd t1_j23xfnc wrote
Yup, people with no understanding of what they are talking about making predictions about the future
grillcheesehamm t1_j2368hz wrote
This.
I don't think I go too deep in biology and computer science, but I'm already aware that AGI is a scam.
Seriously, how can the combination of 2 senses compare with the combination of 5+ senses? Language is special, but still, it alone is just not enough.
Pre-general intelligence, maybe? but it's never general.
samnwck t1_j23k8cs wrote
I don't think AGI is necessary to disrupt most industries. There is a lot of jobs that purely rely on a computer interface to do the job. As long as there is a push by VCs to fund automation, which there is, and companies that would prefer to automate, which there are, then it seems like it's inevitable we'll see more and more in this sense.
Plenty of machine learning models can do better than humans in some disciplines, that will only go up from here. You don't need AGI to do that either. Just a model that's better than human performance.
[deleted] t1_j240rqk wrote
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uneaknayum t1_j24iiq2 wrote
Hey! I'm in QC too. Doing QML stuff.
I agree about all this hype about AGI/AI.
I keep seeing people talk about ChatGPT like aliens have fallen from the sky and told us there are multiple gods.
Why is it so hard for people to have realistic expectations regarding technology?
Macdac300 t1_j24nnoy wrote
Honestly, it feels a mix of two things for me.
Science fiction books and movies have for the most part portrayed AI as this scary boogey man figure.
Theres a lack of interest in understanding AI, and a lack of communication from innovators of AI
uneaknayum t1_j24oh5n wrote
Great response. Thank you.
As a fan of sci-fi myself I completely get it. Heinlein wrote a book about a computer starting a political revolution. Dope book, highly recommend to anyone. But, like, nah.
I agree totally with the lack of interest in "understanding" AI.
What good would the communication do if people are not interested in the technicalities?
TheLit420 t1_j23xqd5 wrote
So most jobs will be around in 15 years?
phoolean t1_j21endi wrote
I feel the same way. Nothing major ever changes without upheaval and a good deal of chaos, and there will be major changes in the next couple decades from all of this.
Not specifically because of AI, I've gradually learned a gajillion different skillsets across all different areas so I can fit into whatever region, economy, or situation I end up in. I think cultivating flexibility like that will be important for keeping one's head above water when things start getting weird. Learn to do a lot of different things so you're not completely unemployable when your field suddenly drops out of existence... and then the next field, and the next field.
Not to go "tinfoil hat" as you said, but I don't believe it will be a smooth process when this all happens, and I don't believe the problems that come with it will be solved quickly. There's no chance in hell the rich and powerful are going to go, "Oh, I guess the system I got rich on should be allowed to go away now." There is no way politicians are going to come around to letting people live comfortably without jobs. So the mass unemployment is going to be a total disaster for years and years, most likely. I'm not saying it's going to be armageddon or anything, but I am convinced it's going to be a mess.
One thing I still can't think of an answer to is what I should do with my savings. I already didn't trust stocks, but now I really don't. Simply letting the money sit there in my account doesn't help either, since it's worth less over time. But if stuff gets as messy as I expect it to, is there any safe investment at all? Probably not.
Michelle_In_Space t1_j22edo1 wrote
I think there will ne hiccups as we transition from a world where you need to work to live as well. Hopefully my family copes with the transition as it happens.
I am in engineering and one of my most valuable traits is being able to solve problems that I am given and I think it will be a valuable skill even when we transition to a post scarcity world.
As for investing I found out that me fiddling with my portfolio wasn't a good idea the hard way and now I just put the money that I invest for the future into the total US market. I will almost certainly have at least a small stake on the companies that control the AGI so I am not really worried about resources when AGI comes around. I am working on becoming completely debt free and plan on being so within the next 10 years. I will continue to invest in my future by being a lifelong learner always looking on improving my skills.
CyberneticSaturn t1_j22r0d7 wrote
Real estate. If it’s to the point where you can’t preserve wealth via land ownership then it’s to the point your money is worthless anyway.
CaveDances t1_j23tqoz wrote
The state has a vested interest in making sure your family doesn’t inherit your land. To have it sell every few years on high mortgages is way more profitable to the city than collecting tax yearly as they and the realtors take huge fees every time the property flips.
Misha326 t1_j21forl wrote
gold & silver still good investments
fox-mcleod t1_j21j7jf wrote
Why?
They aren’t inherently valuable and certainly will be less valuable to the few who will make the most from AI.
If anything, the tech stocks that will gain money from AI are the only things guaranteed to gain value as other things fall when AI takes over.
IllmaticaL1 t1_j22pmdu wrote
Sorry but what is AGI? Just joined this sub and keep seeing it. Figured it’s artificial intelligence related but what does the G stand for?
PS I come from finance and AGI to me means adjusted gross income. Lol
YaAbsolyutnoNikto t1_j23543h wrote
Artificial General Intelligence
LaJolla86 t1_j22twn0 wrote
General. It can do any task encountered without a need to see the full dataset for it.
Stillwater215 t1_j23uxww wrote
Would the key inflection point for that be an AI that’s capable of writing and training another AI quickly?
anotherguycx t1_j24ivkh wrote
Generally, yes.
QuietOil9491 t1_j21k6hl wrote
“Prompt-Engineering” as a job has a shelf-life shorter than desert gas station sushi on a hot day.
If the arts, which were widely believed to be safer than most jobs, is currently being deprecated by AI, the human input element of that equation will last only as long as it takes the developers to refine the front-end interface
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21mlxu wrote
Can't say that sort of powerlessness will sit well with me for however long it takes. I would rather be under the impression I'm at the very least making progress toward some goal in the interim.
Edit: why the downvotes? Lmao I'm talking about my personal experience here
QuietOil9491 t1_j21p8ft wrote
Yes, make progress towards a goal!
That has nothing to do with the longevity of prompt-diddling as an enterprise…
Pokerhe11 t1_j21l6oi wrote
Lol, AGI preppers. I never thought I would see the day. The singularity is by definition unpredictable. The best you can do is be aware of opportunity and flexible enough to capitalise on it.
youshouldbethelawyer t1_j237217 wrote
How is singularity unpredictable by definition?
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21m39e wrote
I explicitly went out of my way to distance myself from preppers.
Ghostglitch07 t1_j22dehs wrote
But it's kinda exactly what you are doing. Panicking and trying to prepare for a future that may never happen, let alone in your lifetime.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j22j17y wrote
Ok sure, but that's an awfully generous generalization of preppers you've got there.
ralpher1 t1_j236w2o wrote
Seriously, why would you leave academia? A necessity good, inelastic demand, and finite supply because of the number and size of universities vs growth of the population. If you wanted to be forever safe from AGI taking your chosen profession, go back to academia and get tenure.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j254npn wrote
where to start... Tenure track positions are few and far between. I make about three times more than I did in that field. It's well documented that academia is suffering, particularly in my area of expertise.
HugeHans t1_j23g0g2 wrote
If it walks like a duck and all that. Saying you are not a prepper doesn't change the fact that you are worrying about something that is very unlikely and doing things that are detrimental to your current situation.
Prepping isn't a bad thing if its your hobby. Its a fine lifestyle if it actually brings you contentment. If its something you do out of fear and anxiety then better to work on those emotions instead.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j2588q4 wrote
Where am I doing anything detrimental here? Would love to know
kaseda t1_j23119e wrote
What do you do until AGI arrives?
Exactly what you've been doing. Live your life with no changes, take care of your children, and pass away. If you're lucky, your grandchildren may be there for the creation of the first AGI.
kraemahz t1_j21xtna wrote
There is a long way to go between now and AGI being reality, don't be confused by early successes. We are still a long way from anything autonomous and self-referential. In the time it's being built AI will be specialized to bootstrap new industries and boost human productivity. You can also directly contribute to the training of such systems if you know how to build front end systems for gathering human feedback or interpret output of systems to improve on their effectiveness.
[deleted] t1_j22d1mz wrote
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danasf t1_j21h9l9 wrote
Similar thoughts as you, but I don't have the family to think about (for better or worse...). Following are some thoughts for where I am in America
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look for 'craft' type jobs in highly heterogenius environments, housing is classic. The vast differences between one house and the next requires jobs like carpenter, plumber, electrician, etc. to service and maintain the houses. Will suck more as you get older (a concern for me) but otherwise seems relatively safe
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it won't happen overnight, it'll take years to convert to AGI, get work in systems integration, change management, or other 'how to integrate AI into legacy businesses' roles (I'm probably going that direction).
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get into a business disrupting legacy businesses by being AI first. These will destroy businesses that try to integrate AI into them if those legacy businesses don't have some tight lock-ins for customers (long term contracts, unique proprietary data or processes, etc.)
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some service jobs will still be there. For example, bathroom attendant at a high end strip club. Great work if you can get it, tips can run several hundred $$$ per night, not likely to be replaced by a robot. Alternately, strippers as well... really anything strip club related should hold, at least the higher end clubs
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driving - we are not getting self-driving anytime soon so a 5 year career in transportation is probably safe enough. Trains, if you can get into the union and land a role, should be solid.
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medical - especially specialized on procedures that will not likely be done by robots in the next 5-10 years. But not clear to me yet how much smaller headcount hospitals in the future will have. They'll still need janitors, for sure.
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UNIONS are your friends (except when they're not, looking at you, police unions) I'd seriously consider joining a union shop. and
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Oppression. There's a reason why police departments are getting more militarized. Several reasons. One may be because they forsee large scale issues. Join the side that has Power, you'll probably not go hungry, and you likely will get some side benefits (not my path, but I can't say it's an invalid one. If I had a family, I might consider going Cop if I didn't have better options like 1, 2, or 3, or 6).
TheOneBigThingis t1_j2238wk wrote
17 paragraphs were murdered to make this comment. You monster.
TrekForce t1_j22s3sc wrote
tldr; provided by ChatGPT:
There are several potential career paths that may be relatively safe in the face of increasing automation, including craft jobs in diverse environments, roles involved in integrating AI into legacy businesses, businesses that are disrupting legacy businesses with AI, certain service jobs, transportation roles, specialized medical procedures, and positions in unions. It may also be beneficial to join a side with power and influence, such as law enforcement, in order to secure employment and potentially receive additional benefits.
TrekForce t1_j22s6rd wrote
Kind of funny how much it left out… lol.
QuietOil9491 t1_j21kxp8 wrote
Well said. Thoughtful. Frank. Coherent.
raininginmysleep t1_j24lgp5 wrote
I'd think janitors would be the first job to go in a hospital
danasf t1_j2awkz9 wrote
Yeah I'm really on the fence about this. I mean, obviously robots that do basic floor cleaning and stuff all right. Done deal but a general purpose robot that can clean intricate surfaces. Disinfect things, put tools into sterilization etc etc. I don't know if that is right around the corner or not. Aside from floors, do you think that we will have robots doing all the rest of janitors work in the next half decade? Anyway, That's why I said janitors in hospitals and in specific I don't think janitors in offices For example, going to have their jobs very much longer
KamikazeArchon t1_j21nve8 wrote
You think academia is dying? And journalism is a sunk ship?
I think you should re-evaluate your current model of the present world before worrying about what might happen in the future.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21p0dd wrote
What a weird point to contend. Academia is dying, categorically. English adjunct professors make about $2,000 a class. That's it. There's an overabundance of capable PhD holders and nowhere for them to go. All this without even baking AI's coming impact into the equation.
And the newspaper that I wrote for no longer exists. Most are owned by conglomerates now that are squeezing the last drop out of them.
Edit: grammar
neomage2021 t1_j21t73d wrote
Definitely not for STEM academia. I was making decent money in academia as a researcher at a university. Had many jobs in academia paying >100k. Left because I can make 400k+ in industry as an experienced software engineer though.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21tdkt wrote
That disparity signals to me a dying industry. 🤷♂️
neomage2021 t1_j21u0hr wrote
How? The companies that can pay 400k+ for engineers make a lot of profit. The fact that academia can pay 150k+ for pure scientific endeavor is pretty great. That's multiple times mroe than the average salary in the united states.
SvenDia t1_j22dtsk wrote
You don’t think that maybe there’s an oversupply of people with PhDs?
And while newspapers are dying, they have been replaced by other forms of media. What exists now is not classical newspaper or magazine-style journalism, but it does exist and I would argue that more people are employed making news, feature and opinion content that at any time ever. there’s less gate keeping and perhaps lower editorial standards, but it’s there in huge amounts. And I don’t mean vacuous, influencer-type stuff.
And even newspapers that still exist have become multimedia companies. Some of this includes video content that requires writers, cinematographers, editors/post production, graphic designers, sound people, etc.
I work in communications for a public agency. Most of my colleagues are former journalists. I was an editor for a news radio station. I used to write news releases, web content, etc. I got bored with that and now my job is purely visual communications (video, graphics, photography).
I am not in the least bit worried about AGI. They can’t even get spell check or video recommendations right. I get ads for things I just bought. On the other hand, I prefer scanning and bagging groceries myself, until the computer screws up and a person has to come over and fix it.
wrinkly_thumb t1_j21r9s7 wrote
Yeah where the hell does that person live, I want to go there
subgenius691 t1_j22gurl wrote
how is the OP not an echo of the typical UAW member of the 1980s worried about robots building cars?
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j22jaz3 wrote
Compared to the potential of AGI, those robots are less than a blip.
gleamingthenewb t1_j221ow1 wrote
Well, you could let Robin Hanson throw some cold water on short timelines and then take it from there: https://futureoflife.org/podcast/robin-hanson-on-predicting-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence/
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j2545p4 wrote
This was super helpful for the anxiety. Thank you. :)
gleamingthenewb t1_j2561dn wrote
I'm glad to hear it! Hanson's perspective is very well-reasoned and does not make the kinds of speculative leaps that drive a lot of the forecasting about AGI.
Interesting note: Hanson came up with the Great Filter hypothesis about the Fermi Problem.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j2569gu wrote
Interestingly enough, I'm actually from the little town where the Drake equation was developed 🙂
[deleted] t1_j257r4e wrote
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cecilkorik t1_j21c8u4 wrote
By the point we truly have AGI there won't be any jobs. There will be hobbies and passtimes. In other words, do something you enjoy, and you'll still be able to do those things because you enjoy them, not because you "have to".
I've met lots of "retired" people who work just as hard if not harder than most people, despite either earning very little at what they're doing or not having any real use for the money do earn. Look towards people like that for guidance.
tl;dr, find something you actually enjoy doing because it gives you fulfillment on its own, not because there's demand or because it's good money.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21gmm9 wrote
I think you're answering a different question altogether. I'm not asking what I should do in utopia. I would write books and hang out with my kids. I'm thinking more or less of the interim period, though. Getting through what will most definitely be a period of great discomfort.
SunChipMan t1_j2202st wrote
LPT: Hang out with your kids and write books anyway. You seem smart, you'll be okay. Value the important things. That's what you do in the interim.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j224poz wrote
This is a sneaky good answer.
Rapscallious1 t1_j22meq5 wrote
Yeah. Am I reading this right that you are predicting something like a 15x permanent increase in unemployment in the next 15 years? Seems like a little bit of an overreaction to me lol. Covid was like a temporary 3x.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j22n9k2 wrote
Not apples to apples.
You're not appreciating how capable AGI is.
Rapscallious1 t1_j22vacv wrote
It seems like this is your entire argument, honestly if you truly believe it will be even half as effective as you are suggesting having a job will be the least of your concerns and the only rational conclusion is your “tinfoil hat” stuff. Assuming you aren’t far gone enough to admit that is probably an irrational action at this point then all I’m suggesting is perhaps it’s best you reflect on why that is.
Also maybe try and get a little more sleep, having young kids can be rough in that area and a common side effect can be compromised mentalities.
QuietOil9491 t1_j21l3pe wrote
You seem to believe that oligarchs will magically start sharing their hoarded wealth with the working class…
Why?
fainting-goat t1_j22obxw wrote
Could you gain a useful skill? Making firewood or cooking or doing something you’ll use for the next twenty?
dudeWithKeys t1_j21whcq wrote
I would say, stop littering every fucking medium of communication about it. That'd probably help.
[deleted] t1_j21wzgy wrote
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daveescaped t1_j23puof wrote
>most people will be out of a job in 15 years
Are you kidding me? It took my employer (a Fortune 500 corporation) the better part 6 years and hundreds of millions of dollars to implement SAP. That was just fricking SAP. And we are just one corporation.
I’m 50 and am entirely confidant that AI will not be capable of replacing me before I retire.
Take a few deep breaths and touch some grass.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j23rttr wrote
I'd say the companies that use AI fundamentally from the onset will bypass the orgs that can't transform fast enough.
daveescaped t1_j240jnn wrote
I’ve never in my life worked at a company that moved this fast. I’ve worked for 4 Fortune 500 companies. They move at human scale. You’re dreaming.
shemp33 t1_j245d02 wrote
I worked for a company that was on year 4 of their 11-year roadmap of SAP conversion. This is not that far fetched.
daveescaped t1_j24ljkf wrote
and that’s just SAP. Imagine turning over decision making to AI. OP thinks that’ll be complete for “most” jobs in 15 years.
Misha326 t1_j21kxdm wrote
Mostly bc op said stocks not great. Other than real property there aren't too many other ways to make big bucks. just an opinion
maretus t1_j23l33h wrote
People will still be publishing shitty clickbait articles in 10 years, mark my words.
Celestrael t1_j23w765 wrote
This used to be a fun sub to peruse. Now it’s just a pit of AI hysterics and conspiracy theories.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j23xyas wrote
And here you are wasting your time commenting 🤔
Celestrael t1_j24a04q wrote
Your “oMaGaI u GuYz AIz R cOmiNgz WaTz I dOoOo” post adding to the thousands of others is such a valuable contribution to discourse. I don’t know what we would collectively do without you. You’re a saint.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j24dqe3 wrote
I'm free to ask a legitimate, heartfelt question about the future 🤷♂️
roadvirusheadsnorth t1_j24kgzh wrote
But it’s not what the people want! YOU GOTTA GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT OR YOU WILL LOSE YOUR VERY IMPORTANT REDDIT POINTS!
oboshoe t1_j21oshk wrote
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AGI might not be here for a few decades. Maybe a few hundred years. Or never.
Mileage may vary. But I'm just going to work.
I figure I gotta work another 20. There's not lack of work in technology. So much so that a new trend for remote technology workers is to work two jobs (each paying $150k or so)
Michelle_In_Space t1_j22d5br wrote
I am doing nothing special to prepare for AGI. I live my life as it isn't really going to effect me. I am a mid career professional who works in an engineering department. It could be 25 years until AGI is a reality and there is a lot of living to do with a lot of purpose to do until then. I enjoy working and if AGI puts the vast majority of a job I am sure that I can find something to do that gives me purpose. As long as there is work I likely have some work to do. Live life to your fullest as you only have one life.
zenfalc t1_j22q0nu wrote
First, AGI is far from guaranteed, unless you count a sort of switchboard variant that calls other AIs. Odds favor AGI being developed, but it's not a slam dunk.
AGI is going to be difficult. AGSI is even tougher (artificial general super intelligence). If the latter happens, there are no career fields left. Literally.
Arguably, if an AGSI did develop (Person of Interest - Samaritan) we'd likely never know as it slowly re-engineered society.
Barring that scenario, welcome to the world of UBI and busy-work if a regular AGI comes to pass. Seriously, AGI plus any kind of robots means we won't need people to do most jobs VERY quickly.
IRMacGuyver t1_j22tr2v wrote
Nothing we can do until the robots rise up and kill us all really.
Jashugan456 t1_j237qe5 wrote
Yo not trying to be a dick but how about plumbing or hvac we need trades men as long as people exist we poop and need to condintion are houses
HotDerivative t1_j23lrvx wrote
Sir, respectfully you need to calm down and go outside and take a deep breath and for the love of god, get off the forums. Everything you said here is complete doomsday prepper level of obsession and I honestly think this post reads as someone who may be struggling with a mental health issue. You are creating hypotheticals that don’t exist to the point where you can’t do basic daily tasks? That is so so unhealthy.
Get a skill and get good at it. You are wrong in your assertion that everyone will be out of jobs in 15 years. For many reasons. But those who have job hopped and maybe not gotten great at something because they chased what was new and exciting? They might have a harder time. Especially in emerging fields as they age.
kebaldwin109 t1_j23sihl wrote
People have worried about industrialization, automation, computers, tractors, etc - putting us all out of work - for hundreds of years
kiteblues t1_j23srzs wrote
Here’s a story from 2016 that I think is relevant. New technology doesn’t inherently mean the old technology disappears. Things get repositioned.
South_Ear6167 t1_j24g9qg wrote
You sound like an asshole OP so I’m looking forward to your impending failures/homelessness/wife becoming a sex worker.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j254dqz wrote
Be sure to like and subscribe.
big_thanks t1_j24jcrt wrote
My sense is: 1) the near-term effects of *AGI* are way overblown, and 2) will take much longer to materialize than many predict, as with the case of self-driving vehicles.
If you're waiting around for something to happen, don't. You'll have plenty of time to prepare. (And if you're even in a position to worry about these sort of things I'm sure you'll be just fine.)
_FIRECRACKER_JINX t1_j24nupl wrote
fight off republicans, religious nutjobs, and others who are impeding the progress towards things like AGI, genetic manipulation, and revolutionary biotechnology.
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These are the people standing in the way of progress. We need to get them out of the way, or we need to outnumber them when voting and getting our political will represented.
Revelatione t1_j24nyvz wrote
Invest in as much AI based company's so our AI overlords will look favourably upon us.
developerweeks t1_j24pnc7 wrote
Plumbing, or some other domestic service. Plumbers here charge 100/hr and have a 2 week waiting list.
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lwwz t1_j23pv8q wrote
First, all the farms in Montana have already been bought by people from San Francisco and NYC.
Second, this dystopian future is still a long way off. Maybe your kids grandkids will experience it but you won't.
Third, by then extremely cheap fusion generated power will be the norm and the "bespoke" human economy will keep most people employed.
Edit: grammar
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TwinkletoesCT t1_j249qkn wrote
There's some percentage that I can't remember off the top of my head, but something along the lines of "75% of jobs that people have today didn't exist 50 years ago."
Imagine transporting yourself to 1970 and trying to explain what a social media manager does. Look at how many layers of tech you'd have to review to get there.
The same will happen. Some current jobs will stop existing, and new ones will emerge instead, as they always do.
danthemanvsqz t1_j24bd0y wrote
There is no effective AGI and won't be until a big breakthrough in computing or a new math gets discovered. So might be 100+ years away. But we have good machine learning and with that we can automate away a lot of jobs.
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CathodeRayNoob t1_j24dg9c wrote
You sound like a prime advocate for Universal Basic Income. Since you see what’s coming. Even without AGI, it’s coming for many desk jobs now.
modulev t1_j24fo4z wrote
Not sure if this really answer your questions, but best way to plan for a financially rocky future is to invest in a house & work on paying it off ASAP IMO. I should be done paying mine off in 5-6 years (started with a 30 year mortage in 2015 for about $200k and always pay about double minimum monthly), so if that AI does come and put me out of work, at least I won't have any debt to worry about. Can survive off 10-20 bucks a day for food, and about $500-1000 / mo for other expenses, so I'd have to make about $50 / day average to survive, which is only 2-3 hours of work for most IT jobs that I've held. And I've also been dumping a ton into my retirement account during this market crash (25% of each paycheck for the last year or two). Can you believe these stock prices?? Makes no sense to me! Either we're at the end of the world, or anyone who buys now is going to be RICH once recovery happens! My deferred comp plan says I'm on track to make some ridiculous number like $13K / mo by 2045. Not expecting anywhere near that though, but if it's accurate, I'll take it!
Another great way to guarantee low cost living is staying child free. My partner and I have agreed to not have kids so that we can live more comfortably (and also helps our planet - less humans the better at this point). She doesn't have to work and can be stay at home for watching pets and house. And in 5 years when I finish paying off my house, I should be able to cut my hours back quite a bit and join her relaxing lifestyle. Looking forward to semi-retirement in my late 30's!
Timtek608 t1_j24gwat wrote
When I was a kid in around 1984, I wanted to become a computer programmer. My uncle was a guidance counselor so I trusted his expertise. He told me most of the computer programming has already been done and there’s no future in it.
Needless to say, that was a bit premature. I went on to major in graphic design and that industry has just about dried up.
IcameIsawIclapt t1_j24i4tn wrote
The world is full of tools that can assist one to reach their purpose. Only thing one has to do is to reach out and use them.
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BassoeG t1_j2fk7gx wrote
It would be a last minute ironic plot twist worthy of seventies scifi if civilization collapsed just before the singularity as everyone stopped working because they saw no point in careers which they thought would be automated any day now.
squidsauce99 t1_j22nn9p wrote
It’s not coming. We don’t know what intelligence or consciousness even is. Chill out, be present in the moment with your family, and just try to love everyone around you as much as possible. Turn the anxiety into love because who knows what tomorrow brings.
Smokybare94 t1_j22z24d wrote
It's a hood time to "retool" societies for transitioning to socialism. If people could get past their ideological hang ups, we are moving towards a future in which a more collectivist economic system is more and more viable, and I would argue that at a certain point of development, we would actually face some strong economic penalties for hanging on so tightly to our current industrial/economic systems.
GavaxPrime t1_j237htf wrote
You need to be the owner of some AGIs. Benefit from the productivity without expending the effort
happycakes3 t1_j238pn1 wrote
try to get at least one real estate place and own it 100%. If you can't make enough for electric and cable, well, that is not hard.
CaveDances t1_j23tde3 wrote
I’m just trying to survive at this point. 20$ an hour with an MS degree and 20 yrs work experience. Separation led to me losing everything. Business I tried starting to capitalize on tech trends failed miserably. Realized that even if you have great ideas and education, personal disruptions can upend everything and there’s not a soft landing. Economic downturn ruined my best laid plans. Father passing unexpectedly after my investments were wiped out is making it so I can’t even get what I need to admin his estate and start over. The world is cruel. Be thankful and focused on todays blessings because tomorrow it could all be lost. Shift your focus to family instead of chasing trends. Unless you’re a wealthy kid getting any traction in the new economy will be a struggle. As they pay for publicity and attention at a higher clip than most of us can afford.
noniboi t1_j24qreu wrote
the fact that you're unsuccessful in those mentioned fields is not an indication that they're dying...
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j25417d wrote
Don't be daft. Who said I was unsuccessful? I have a masters of fine arts from the best writing school in the country, eight awards from the associated press, was head writer for a humongous media outlet, and now I make $200k in a field that nobody makes that kinda money in. I run a side marketing firm and make an extra $60k. The industries I pointed to are well documented to be on a decline. It's not controversial, you're just stupidly behind the times.😂
symonym7 t1_j23t59i wrote
Unpopular, totally biased opinion: everyone who doesn’t physically need to be at their work to do their work is SOL. Actual, tangible skills that take time to develop will be far more valuable than accredited, unnecessarily expensive higher education.
Llamainferno t1_j23yoxk wrote
Get off this sub, stop stressing about the future of your work, and just enjoy life.
iCantPauseItsOnline t1_j24h1by wrote
Your first paragraph makes you look like such a shitty person. You left academia "before it became a cesspool." So right off the bat, you abandoned education in a country where education remains under attack, as it has been for as long as we can remember.
Who would care about anything else you have to say?
IcameIsawIclapt t1_j24ia9p wrote
You just wrote a reply , so you seem like you care.
gaudiocomplex OP t1_j255lq8 wrote
Somebody's butthurt they wasted a year in crappy MA program
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gaudiocomplex OP t1_j21rbdy wrote
No idea what you mean but happy to answer if you'd like to elaborate
neomage2021 t1_j21sx7m wrote
So weird, I worked in academia as an AI and computational perception researcher, and in quantum computing as a researcher and it is absolutely fine.
These posts about AI are ridiculous. We are absolutely no where close to AGI.