This made me think - honestly I normally consider near future predictions to be on much stabler ground than later ones, but I usually predict on scale like this only over the course of multiple years. And I realized after running through this that actually trying to predict a list of specific events a year out is... problematic in a lot of ways. Still, I suppose I can give it a try.

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1. Gridlock prevails in US politics, Moore vs Harper does not overturn electoral law (narrow ruling, no precedent, or outright reject).
2. Gato 2 and GPT4 both drop, AI continues its march into public awareness.
3. Generative audio finally gets its time in the spotlight.
4. A breakthrough in synthetic data is made.
5. Ditto a breakthrough in transfer learning.
6. Chinese unrest continues, but the CCP keep the lid on.
7. Ukraine war drags on.
8. No coup in Russia though Putin health issues are possible.
9. Further breakthroughs in fusion, fueling speculation of implementation this decade despite cautions.
10. 2023 is hotter than 2022, and wildfires grow.
11. The Iran protests grow.
12. This flu season is one of the worst on modern record.
13. Investment in fission (SMRs), alongside increased growth in solar/wind.

There are quite a few others that are sort 'maybe that year' or continuing situations - something that meets Metaculus weak AGI standards, breakthroughs in aging, new MRNA vaccines, etc.