-Russia signs a ceasefire with Ukraine, or fighting slows down with no official ceasefire. -No change or coup in Belarus since it is an unofficial Russian province. -Either a regime change in Iran or the protests slow down (regime change or reform is likely when Khamenei dies from old age). -Fusion is still 20+ years away. -Stable Diffusion and other ai art generators improve, but are still flawed. -Western governments (excluding the US probably) pass more draconian laws limiting free speech. -TikTok is banned in the US. -Finland and Sweden join NATO. -Erdogan will likely lose the Turkish election unless he rigs it. -At least one medical breakthrough relating to cancer and/or Alzheimer’s. -3d printing houses is found to be not cost effective and bad for the environment due to the concrete usage, and so it never takes off. -Something in the news about Donald Trump. -Batteries still suck. -Apple forced to allow Sideloading in the EU and possibly the rest of the world. -Solar power gets marginally cheaper, but still inferior to nuclear power. -China removes more remaining pandemic-era restrictions.