2023 Predictions:

GENERAL/TECH:

1. AI (deep learning) interaction and generation are demo'd integrated into multiple creation and editing software applications, with more announced to be on the way.
2. Websites implement chat agents using deep learning bots, constrained and hybridized with stock answers to keep processing costs lower.
3. Major software companies demo speech/voice chat personal assistants that can work with user data and their software suites (such as MS Office and Windows, Google web apps and Android).
4. GPT4 will be more cost effective, more truthful, easier to apply and constrain.
5. Multi-modal AI interaction will be a big area of development in 2023. E.g. a chatbot given the content of a 'how to' website might provide text and image guidance to do-it-yourselvers.
6. An mRNA cancer treatment gets at least limited approval for use, and similar efforts make progress.
7. Brain-machine interfaces make good progress with human testing. We'll see more experiments along the lines of artificial limb control, broken spine by-pass to restore movement. Also differentiable signal inputs to animal brains.
8. Tesla starts a robo-taxi test. Likely with safety drivers, in areas Waymo is already operating or near Austin, TX (for ease of getting approvals). They also demo AI examining the interior after passengers exit to detect items left behind or to determine the need to drive to a cleaning location.
9. Teslabot will get quite capable and do some real tasks in a Tesla factory. Tesla engineers may integrate deep learning AI that breaks down verbally assigned tasks into instructions the robot can handle.
10. Precision fermentation of cultured meat will crest the peak of hyped expectations and start down toward the trough of disillusionment. Affordable production is far off.
11. AI protein design for drug discovery will get as much attention as AI protein folding prediction did. A new AI designed protein drug will go into early testing.
12. SpaceX gets Starship to orbit to deploy Starlink satellites, and will eventually catch at least the booster. If all goes well, they'll do an initial orbital refueling test. An explosion on launch would likely break these predictions, due to government imposed delays.
13. Twitter will remain controversial pretty much all year despite getting its act together on content moderation policy, as it moves on to revenue enhancement and service expansions like the proposed "X" payment system.

GLOBAL:

1. Ukraine War gets a ceasefire, but peace negotiations likely continue into 2024.
2. European (especially German) energy shortage continues on into 2024, adaptation toward reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuel continues, including more energy intensive industries leaving Germany, maybe to North America, India or Turkey.
3. EU deepens relationships in Africa to replace Russian/Ukrainian raw materials.
4. China experiences a Covid Megawave, and struggles to contain it. This may generate new variants that create waves in places Covid was otherwise dying down to endemic status.
5. China is too busy with internal issues to invade Taiwan. The Megawave scares the Chinese people into avoiding protests like those that ended zero covid policy, and which will get blamed for the Megawave. Subservience restored - for now - so no need for an external nationalism-rallying distraction.
6. Chinese supply chains fail again due to the Megawave - especially for electronics. New and used car shortages again by end of year. Non-Chinese companies continue to rush to reduce their dependence on China, but this takes time.
7. A deep global recession with inflation due to on-going Ukraine war effects and Chinese Megawave supply chain problems.
8. Global food shortages and hunger deepen from delayed impact of reduced food and fertilizer exports from Ukraine, Russia, and maybe also due to increased food imports by China due to Megawave domestic food production shortfalls.
9. Protests in Iran either die down or are suppressed - for now.

UNITED STATES

1. Congress agrees on little, but eventually passes the PRESS Act and something to reform legal treatment and responsibilities of social media. Maybe they also support next generation fission reactor development and planning. At least two of these. I hope.
2. Congress may also take action to help reduce global hunger. Maybe a temporary suspension of corn ethanol subsidies and mixing requirements in exchange for subsidizing corn exports to support corn prices.
3. House Republicans may reluctantly decide against a revenge impeachment of Biden on "mental unfitness" grounds, to signal a move away from Trump and toward DeSantis for 2024. Otherwise, expect impeachment. Either way, it'll be big news for 2023.
4. Biden takes more steps to economically separate the US and China.
5. US recession is milder than most of the world, but when inflation resumes rising due to new supply chain breakdowns, the Fed will continue it's interest rate hikes that can't really fix that kind of inflation, reduces businesses ability to invest in adaptation, and deepens the recession.