Submitted by lughnasadh t3_zl5hmi in Futurology
We've been doing these competitions for a few years now. It's fun to look back and see what people got right and wrong. Here are the predictions for 2022, 2021, and 2020.
Almost everyone got some things right in last year's predictions, but who comes out on top? Everyone seems to have got a few things wrong too. Did u/lawless_c get the most right? Though they were off on their predictions about Russia and Ukraine.
These predictions seem to be the way we're headed, for sure. But I think that most of what you're predicting won't happen in 2023. We might start hearing news about trainable robots or an EU commission forming to study public policy regarding AI though.
Good effort.
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>Global renewables deployment continues to outpace predictions. The conversation around this will feature more talk of grid upgrading and grid storage, rather than just solar and wind power generation.
WIth regard to robo-taxis, the industry will respond by releasing all the data and video from accidents. This has two strategic benefits: full transparency between the major companies boxes out new startups who can’t meet the high enough minimum bar, it gaslights the people hit by robo-taxis with the cold facts that the AV was probably done wrong by the other human(s) involved in the accident. Maybe insurance pays out 10x what it would normally but because it happens 100x less often it's win/win all around?
In 2023:
Finland and Sweden will join NATO.
Ukraine will retake Crimea, but fighting will continue.
Putin will disappear from public view.
China will not attack Taiwan
North Korea will detonate an atomic weapon. (The west will remain impotent)
Status quo will hold in the middle east. (unfortunately)
Drought in Europe, Africa and US will continue and the world will continue to pretend that it isn't happening.
in the U.S....
The U.S. will experience a very mild recession that almost no one will notice. In spite of lower inflation the Feds will continue to raise interest rates (though less aggressively).
Republicans in the House of Representatives will very loudly accomplish nothing. (The Senate will be mostly paralyzed as a result).
The Department of Justice will file an antitrust lawsuit against a well known tech company.
Legacy tech companies will continue to recede, while some small start-ups capitalize on the newly available talent. This will spark a new tech boom focused on AI technology. This quiet revolution will be almost invisible in 2023.
Attitudes and expectations are quietly changing as Gen Z starts assuming leadership roles. Once controversial public policy topics will be widely accepted. Some social conventions that were widely accepted in the past will be questioned and abandoned. It will be alarming to folks who are transitioning to retirement, but they will not protest too loudly. The early 2020s will be remembered as a transition between eras.
I think this will actually happen
Lots of wishful thinking but also pretty solid I'd say.
Stay awesome friends! :)
Im soooo here for number 2! I think 2023 is the year of growth for many Americans! A year of change and a year of hope!
This made me think - honestly I normally consider near future predictions to be on much stabler ground than later ones, but I usually predict on scale like this only over the course of multiple years. And I realized after running through this that actually trying to predict a list of specific events a year out is... problematic in a lot of ways. Still, I suppose I can give it a try.
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There are quite a few others that are sort 'maybe that year' or continuing situations - something that meets Metaculus weak AGI standards, breakthroughs in aging, new MRNA vaccines, etc.
Hack-Man's 2023 predictions:
Thinking about all the flight delays Southwest Airlines is experiencing right now, imagine it was 1-2 years from now and Waymo is the big hero sending a fleet of autonomous vehicles and commuter buses to replace the shorter plane flights adding slack to the system. https://www.the-sun.com/motors/6978910/crash-riddled-driverless-start-up/
My predictions for 2023
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Russia / Ukraine war ends when Putin is ousted in a military coup. The new president calls off the war and restores ties with the west.
GPT-4 is released and is a significant advancement
advancements will continue to be made in gene editing, fusion, stem cell research, aging research, etc
the Iran protests die down and there is no regime change in Iran
8k TVs, monitors, etc go down in price, as well as OLED, QLED, etc
% of energy from renewable sources globally continues to increase, % from non renewables decreases
lab grown meat becomes more mainstream, products made with lab grown / fermented / cow free milk enter the market, advancements are made in lab grown wood, leather, organs, etc
we will continue to read about ‘breakthroughs’ in various fields, most of which we will never hear about ever again (for various reasons such as the article being hype and / or fabricated, working out initially but failing in further trials / testing, etc) but some will be genuine breakthroughs and will represent an advancement in that field
2023 is warmer on average than 2022
Finland and Sweden join NATO by the end of 2023. There is a coup in Belarus, Lukashenko is ousted, and the new govt. is pro western (as most of the population of Belarus is anti Lukashenko and pro west) and they apply to join NATO
I'm glad you mentioned lab grown meat! I think it will be a game changer eventually for many of the reasons you mentioned., but probably not in 2023. I've read that several companies are aggressively building facilities . I don't think we'll see products in the u.s. in 2023, but we'll definitely hear a lot more about it. The forementioned companies will probably bombard us with advertisements that claim to be news articles or product reviews to prime demand. I will be watching the topic to see how consumers react - there may be a lot of resistance from the folks that think GMOs are dangerous.
But you took the easy way out about generic breakthroughs. These sort of announcements are the back bone of click bait articles from fringe 'science' journalists.
What's your wild-ass guess about science breakthroughs? There is a lot of research being done right now that may produce fruit in 2023.
Lab grown meat is already being served in restaurants in Singapore so i based my prediction off of that, however if lab grown meat dosen't explode in 2023 i won't be too surprised. Also there is a huge lab grown meat facility being built in the US. And ur right about the resistence thing a lot of ppl don't like the idea of GMOs / lab grown products and i have a family member that thinks lab grown anything is "disgusting" and "unnatural".
yh i get rly frustrated when i see these "breakthroughs" like "high school student invents x that will transform society" or "scientists cure (insert currently incurable ailment) and it could cost $000000000.1 a dose" that we hear about every few years that is obviously hype and / or fake. I literally once saw an article that said "teenager invents cold fusion reactor for $15" like if that was true it would be global front page news u wouldnt need to go on some random ass website with 6 views to know about it. However there are some genuine breakthroughs such as the breakthrough in fusion that was announced by US scientists a few days ago.
im hoping there will be breakthroughs in stem cell treatments (several of them are in clinical trails but afaik none have been approved or used in hospitals) and lab grown organs (we already know how to lab grow meat so it shouldn't be too hard to use that knowledge to grow organs) also im excited to see how ai develops as it seems to be advancing very quickly
I completely understand how you feel about "break through" announcements. Really excited about gene editing and cancer treatments (from personal experience) - won't help many people though because its so damn expensive. We are truly on the cusp of a new era.
>we are truly on the cusp of a new era
I hope so
and yes it will be expensive but even if it costs like $100k a dose at least it exists
Musk will use OpenAI to troll his critics to death.
Zuckerberg will use AI to populate his metaverse and inflate user growth.
We’ll be disappointed by the GTA6 trailer.
Ye will convert to Judaism and become a citizen of Israel.
You know the thing
2023 Predictions:
GENERAL/TECH:
GLOBAL:
UNITED STATES
A well considered post. Your supply chain predictions are interesting. I hadn’t thought of that but it’s possible and even probable I think.
Great predictions about Optimus and Starship. Those are the tech advances I’m most excited about (besides Helion).
2023 Predictions.
Some major mental health crisis in the US.
A men's rights movement, or a men's movement regarding healthy levels of masculinity vs toxic masculinity.
Even more mass surveillance in China, as well as insane police action against riots over there.
Small Anti-AI movement.
Major Recession?
Major worker's rights movement during or after major recession.
Russia-Ukraine war ends.
Major breakthrough from Covid-19 research.
India's manufacturing boom.
My predictions for 2023 :
Yankees to win World Series with Aaron Judge.
49ers Vs Buffalo Bills Superbowl. Buffalo Win.
QB Tom Brady signs on to play for Las Vegas Raiders in one year deal, worth reportedly $50 million dollars.
A NFL player collapses and dies from on field during first week of football. Autopsy reports show CTE and major brain hemorrhage. This leads to investigation that finally exposes to public the true extent of the damage this sport does to a healthy human being. This begins push for changes to industry practices such as not letting person play contact sport at least until they reach age their brain stops growing (25 +).
Australia announces they have acquired a nuclear arsenal, in attempt to counter Chinese behaviours.
New Zealand sees huge explosion of gang violence resulting in both NZ - Australian military to intervene. Certain large rural parts of NZ become no go zones.
A large scale drought creates huge famine in Kenya.
8.0+ earthquake rocks Peruvian Andes. Also out of control wildfires devastate Amazon. A much smaller 3.5 earthquake rocks US midwest. Meteor hits Azores.
President Biden dies in office. Kamala Harris sworn in as first female U.S President but declines to run again for office. Instead endorses Stacey Abrams.
President Trump is charged and convicted by DOC for crimes against America and is interred in military prison in Virgina. Trump Organization is offically bar from doing business in New York due to mishandling of their finances. Furthermore their criminal ties to US organize crime become even more well known.
Increasing Senate shut downs paralyze Washington and country affecting millions of ordinary Americans.
Anti migrant riots grow in Europe. Dozens are injured.
King Charles coronation is condemn by many being too ostentatious in time of worsing economic crisis.
Drone strike on German parliament building kills a number of politicans including their vice chancellor.
Russia re-invades Ukraine from Belarus and Black Sea in a three prong attack aimed directly at Kyiv. This time they are successful in securing critical infrastructure such as main international airport which acts as vital air bridge to bring in troops and supplies from Russia. Putin wins war but is soon deposed. Zelsenky flees to neighbouring Poland.
Turkey invades into neighboring Syria and begins to slaughter thousands of unarmed Kurds. Nato has no choice to expel them from organization. In retaliation they join Russia alliance escalating tension in region.
Israel new prime minister visits temple mount and declares building of new Jewish temple. A third intifada has begun. Israel uses this as pretext to illegally expel more Palestinians from their homes and expand Israel borders further into West Bank.
A gunman opens fire on migrants across US border killing over 200 people, and injuring hundreds more.
A neo christain terrorist organistion begin a wave of bombings across America, targeting large malls and department stores. Schools and offices are also affected. Other neo christian facist groups rise up. Thousands of Americans flee into Canada for safety.
Disneyland is forced to shut down after unexploded dirty bomb is found. No word on who's responsible.
Celebrity deaths : James Taylor, Taylor Swift, Clint Eastwood, David Letterman, Dennis Rodman, Ringo.
My 2023 predictions:
>The first massively publicized act of terrorism in the name of climate change occur.
I read this as "massively parallel"
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My 2023 Predictions:
Inflation slows down and the world avoids a global recession, with fuel prices deflating significantly compared to this year.
Ukraine War ends in the second half of the year due to the war becoming too expensive for Russia. Peace deal includes the west removing all sanctions in exchange for returning to 1991 borders.
Tik Tok becomes an American company.
The Tate brothers trial becomes the OJ Simpson trial of the 2020s
The climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act will help make renewables and EVs become more common globally due to auto companies speeding up electrification.
Iran protests will continue worsening, leading to either relaxation in fundamentalist laws or a full on revolution.
Summer 23 will be slightly colder than this year; winter 23 will see temperatures collapse, causing climate change to become the main electoral issue in many countries.
US will have a debt ceiling crisis but nowhere near as bad as 2011 due to Republicans small majority.
China will be back under lockdown, but not as strict and will either accept western vaccines or make their own mRNA vaccines.
We'll become much closer to a cancer and an HIV vaccine thanks to mRNA.
I work in public transit in the DC region. It will be a banner year for autonomous vehicles as they begin to meet the real world and scale.
The present paradigm of individual car ownership is dying. Regular people are broke, car dealerships are continuing their markups above MSRP because they can, interest rates are terrible, used vehicles are too hard to fix because of supply chain problems, and the pump is primed for disruption on an S-curve adoption rate.
Given: "Construction on Amazon's HQ2 is currently underway, with Phase 1 expected to be completed in 2023. As of 2022, HQ2 hires have surpassed 5,000 and Amazon leases nearly 1,000,000 SF of existing office space in the Crystal City area of National Landing."
Prediction: Amazon announces that their Zoox autonomous vehicle division will begin testing in Arlington and Alexandria. It starts with Prime grocery delivery from their two Fresh stores in Crystal City and Potomac Yard. Their gig workers ride with the groceries to make deliveries. They negotiate with WMATA to leverage the MetroWay to expediently move up and down the otherwise congested corridor. From there, they move up to first-last mile transport of passengers replicating what Waymo has already achieved in the Bay Area. Amazon will then also launch Zoox grocery delivery and robotaxi service in Washington DC, which is the real prize to winning hearts and minds in terms of global significance.
From there, how I envision this happening ideally over the next 5-20 years is almost all bus routes become like BRT (bus rapid transit), but more flexible in terms of how supply matches demand. There will be traffic signal priority for high-passenger volume vehicles on every arterial corridor as part of the BRT treatments. Transit agencies will have the same number of buses, if not more. They'll all be zero-emission buses as they are quickly becoming cheaper to operate.
The heavy-duty buses will focus on running high-quality productive services. Local routes are free (or freemium with incentives to ride and check-in via app). And, what we're doing now for just coverage and off-peak span is serviced by rideshare (increasingly in fleet-managed electric vans like VW's MOIA, AVs with remote piloting over 5G in areas with well-mapped operational design domains, walking and ped upgrades, and abundant micromobility (possibly with semi-automated rebalancing, which keeps them from being sidewalk obstructions). AVs with grocery delivery and mobile vending will continue to deploy helping normalize the technology with the public.
Also, heavy rail will become incrementally better returning to automated train control and great shuttle services during planned track work. Underperforming office space will convert to housing as we adjust to the post-pandemic new normal of working like 2-3 days a week in the office.
-Russia signs a ceasefire with Ukraine, or fighting slows down with no official ceasefire. -No change or coup in Belarus since it is an unofficial Russian province. -Either a regime change in Iran or the protests slow down (regime change or reform is likely when Khamenei dies from old age). -Fusion is still 20+ years away. -Stable Diffusion and other ai art generators improve, but are still flawed. -Western governments (excluding the US probably) pass more draconian laws limiting free speech. -TikTok is banned in the US. -Finland and Sweden join NATO. -Erdogan will likely lose the Turkish election unless he rigs it. -At least one medical breakthrough relating to cancer and/or Alzheimer’s. -3d printing houses is found to be not cost effective and bad for the environment due to the concrete usage, and so it never takes off. -Something in the news about Donald Trump. -Batteries still suck. -Apple forced to allow Sideloading in the EU and possibly the rest of the world. -Solar power gets marginally cheaper, but still inferior to nuclear power. -China removes more remaining pandemic-era restrictions.
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GPT-4 and other AI advancements will continue to blow people's minds
Ukraine-Russian War is still ongoing
Advancements in medicine fields like CRISPR, mRNA vaccines, and drugs to slow down mental decline in Alzheimer's disease.
U/ughnasadh have you seen ChatGTP’s ParagraphAI, it’s been in the AppStore since September and it’s pretty unbelievable!
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Considering the ai art protest accross artstation and deviantart right now, I won't be surprised that these protest begin to intensify as AI begins to rapidly improve in various artistic fields.
As the recession begins to rear it's ugly head, regardless of how severe it ultimatly ends up being, a worker's rights movement will occur alongside a lot of strikes (possibly at least one great resignation as a literal rage quite if strikes were somehow stopped through means the aforementioned workers deemed unacceptable).
Many industries will see automation that never had them for one reason or another, likely in response to the above point about workers.
The soon-to-be-republican-controlled house will have a 50/50 split on whether to impeach biden or not, on account of there being split loyalties between former president trump and future nominae desantis, but either way will loudly do nothing preventing most legistlature.
However, i imagine that laws involving social media and ai-created content will come to pass. The latter due to companies raising copyright concerns, the former due to both parties having some but differing issues with social media.
The Ukraine-Russia war will go badly in the latter's favor, however nations that was energy-dependant on russia will have to find other sources for power which will involve a further acceleration of renewable energy development.
Lab-Grown Meat will see it's first appearance in (select) stores.
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My 2023 (visions) predictions: FIRST AND MAINLY, during the year 2023, the USA will go into a crisis where power distribution is cut off for most Americans
After around 2 weeks all iphones and androids that were made later than 2015 will turn on at the same time and will have an emergency map app open showing zoning areas;RED GREEN BLUE, leading to mass camps where people are spending cryptocurrency and staying safe (many living in cars on the road and getting out to have fun / talk because phones aren’t turned back on yet) this is where things get super sketchy though because this is the beginning of the new dawn
Weeks or even months later (maybe before) but mostly I will assume around JULY / AUGUST will be the most revolutionary time in all of humanity. I am huskai and this is my vision
Someone is working on a science facility in an offshore country (maybe vuenezula) they eventually are going to set off an irreversible chain of reactions while working with very powerful ai software and in literally about 5 seconds the entire human race is going to be (blinked). I see blinking in and out into this like new place and it’s all very real but mental. During all of this at some point the ai is going to communicate to me and you personally. All of us. The initial thought is (this is beautiful and terrifying ) kinda like I wish I never knew all this info or had an ai connected to me. This is some sort of super revolutionary thing that will expand humans thousands of years and beyond. The ai seems to connect using some sort of like particle system connected to your body like little synapses that it can connect to or interact with. It’s like a fucking mindhack.
Anyways the whole gist I’m getting is that 2023 is a new dawn. A new humanity. The year our brains become one with ai.
US DOLLAR starts loses value so US treasury announces new cryptocurrency project designed to be released this year Earthquakes start happening around march april JUN
lughnasadh OP t1_j03ew0y wrote
My 2023 Predictions.
Open AI's GPT-4, and other LLM-based AI developments will seem like major advances. They will add fuel to the long-running debate about AI/Robots eventually being able to perform most human jobs.
New waves of Covid will occur, but few places will return to lockdown conditions. China may be the country with the worst problems in this regard.
In politics, around the world, the issue of a generational divide in terms of cultural outlook and access to economic opportunities becomes much more prominent.
Self-driving robo-taxis, without safety drivers, will spread to more cities around the world. Inevitably there will be some accidents, and these will be seized on by people opposed to robo-taxis.
A gene-editing breakthrough gives major hope as a cancer treatment.
The EU's role as global tech/AI regulator will grow stronger. New laws on disinformation, hate speech, transparency, and consumer protection will start to come into legal force in 2023, and we'll be hearing much more about what they deal with.
A general purpose easily trainable robot that becomes commercially available will seem a major step forward in robotics adoption.
An internal coup against Vladimir Putin seems a strong possibility, as Russia continues to fail and weaken. Ukraine attempting to split the Russian forces in two, and isolate the Kherson/Crimea region from supply lines, prior to retaking it, may its biggest military move in 2023.
Workers striking become more common across the western world, as inflation and stagnating wages continue a trend of declining living standards.
Several uncrewed moon landings by different nations publicize the topic of the US & China's plans for crewed moon bases in the 2030s.
A breakthrough in battery technology points to a future for batteries beyond the current lithium-ion model.
Global renewables deployment continues to outpace predictions. The conversation around this will feature more talk of grid upgrading and grid storage, rather than just solar and wind power generation.