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NotAnotherEmpire t1_j09n28v wrote

This gets incredibly complicated very quickly as the more variables you add the more inherent error is introduced in the values of those. Major weather forecasting is normally done with ensembles that use a wide variety of conditions to develop a range.

Trying to predict discreet events would both require implausible access to information such as human thoughts and picking the correct one of a more or less unlimited set. The war in Ukraine for example is a result of several unknown, specific decisions made at different times, possibly on different continents. It plausibly has inspiration going back to unrelated events in the 2011 protest wave.