firewolf8385 t1_j0t4rvq wrote on December 19, 2022 at 5:19 AM

Reply to comment by Omegalazarus in How would the economies be if AI takes most / all the jobs? by Charming-Coconut-234

Fair enough, the Industrial Revolution was more of an idea for societal change based on new technologies rather than the technology itself. Probably should have said the steam engine there instead

njm123niu t1_j0tbc3r wrote on December 19, 2022 at 6:33 AM

But all of your examples... the steam engine, the assembly line, the computer, etc...are new technologies that facilitate labor growth, not replace it. That seems to be the disconnect you're missing in this argument.

AI has just started and will continue to decimate the need for labor across nearly all industries. Unlike other previous technological innovations, it doesn't enable humans to do human work more efficiently, effectively, cheaper, or at better scale. It enables non-human systems to do human work efficiently, effectively, cheaper, and at scale.

People here are arguing that "someone still has to stock shelves, maintain machines, interpret context and meaning." Those people don't understand that AI can do literally everything. I could be responding to an AI bot right now. I could be an AI bot myself.

firewolf8385 t1_j0tcrp6 wrote on December 19, 2022 at 6:51 AM

You’re thinking of AI in the wrong light. AI is a tool for humans to use. It facilitates humans to create and do tasks, but can’t do them on its own. Some examples that ChatGPT have shown is programming, art, writing, etc. ChatGPT makes those much easier, but it needs a human to guide it to the answer we want. Technology for AI to truly think for itself and require no human intervention at all is easily 100 years away at best, if it ever comes at all.

Edit: Also, those examples did replace labor. We used to have entire office buildings full of people dedicated to crunching numbers all day. A single farmer today can cover an area that would take hundreds of farmers 200 years ago. The jobs didn’t just “disappear”, they shifted to other industries. Every new technology just allows humans to diversify more.

njm123niu t1_j0tdu35 wrote on December 19, 2022 at 7:04 AM

First, the technological singularity you're referring to may happen much, much sooner, the general expert consensus is by 2045, maybe sooner.

Second, it doesn't take sentient technology for AI (which yes, is a tool for humans to use) to replace human jobs. It's not even a 'futuristic' concept, it's literally happening today. Humans are being replaced by AI that is able to do human work.

So it's not a even a question of "if" it will happen, beacuase it's already happening. The question is when does it replace human work at a scale that totally realigns our economy in an irreversible way.

firewolf8385 t1_j0te7wi wrote on December 19, 2022 at 7:09 AM

See my edit above: The jobs won’t disappear, they’ll change industries, just like every time before

njm123niu t1_j0tsu3v wrote on December 19, 2022 at 10:39 AM

The other innovations drove the need for human labor up. AI drives the need for human labor down. There is no "changing industries" when AI can do (nearly) everything humans can do, cheaper. I'm sorry but it's a very basic concept.

firewolf8385 t1_j0ue7uk wrote on December 19, 2022 at 2:26 PM

They didn’t bring the need for labor up though, it’s not like people just didn’t have jobs beforehand. First most people were farmers, then most people become factory workers, and now most people are part of the information economy. Those technologies replaced human labor and allowed other jobs to form. AI will likely much automate the Information economy, and we’ll enter a new era. I’d imagine we’ll either switch to more of a service and leisure economy or a more research and development economy(with AI as a tool to make that stuff easier), but we won’t know until we get there.

If AI could do absolutely everything, we will be made obsolete and humanity will die off anyways.