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AppleSauceGC t1_j2kyyq7 wrote

But there's only a 10% chance of that

Seriously, how likely is it that the components in that particular experiment are similar to the average of mass produced units over 40 years across the globe?

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ABobby077 t1_j2lkst6 wrote

Seems manufacturing methods likely improved over the past 40 years. It might make sense that cells and panels today may have improved more, even.

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PaulVla t1_j2loz2s wrote

Improved manufacturing does not necessarily mean better quality. Likely the producers have optimized production cost that reduces yield loss costs and more risk can be taken using more cost effective components without jeopardizing their business case.

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Splenda t1_j2nhoxk wrote

PV panel duarability varies by brand, but even partially delaminated cheapies often still produce power. A friend of mine powers his place with an array built of low-cost old and damaged panels that he picked up nearly free. We'll see more of this ahead.

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Jamie1897 t1_j2nzeyn wrote

This is a trend I don't quite understand. We have known for a long time that old solar panels continue to produce at most of their rated capacity for decades. But at the same time, I see a huge glut of used solar panels coming mostly from the closure of utility scale solar power plants built in the last 15 to 20 years. I mean, it's GREAT for people who want to install DIY home solar. But are utility scale inverters and other consumables so expensive that it is cheaper to scrap the entire plant after 15 to 20 years of operation?

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Splenda t1_j2o162v wrote

Inverters wear out much faster than panels do, and new panels are simply much more productive than old ones, so it usually makes sense to just start with new gear that won't give you any surprises.

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Jamie1897 t1_j2o25ph wrote

The output of new panels hasn't risen much above 14% to 19% efficiency. There are a bunch of exotic chemistries, but they are toxic, expensive, and only really used in applications like space probes and the space station. Many of the solar plant closures are happening well before the design lifetime of the plant. It's even worse when you consider the relatively poor EROI of solar panels. These things need to run as long as possible to amortize their embodied energy.

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Splenda t1_j2o92kt wrote

NREL now rates most new panels at 16 - 22% efficiency, and quickly improving. Meanwhile, the EROI payback is now less than two years (the old Weisbach graph that was kicking around for years, showing poor EROI, was based on pre-2010 German data with cloudy skies, northern latitude and far more materials and energy inputs than present panels use).

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murdok03 t1_j2mwpbr wrote

We have higher density cells a crack or spot in one now would make them unusable compared to those on that roof.

And even here I have no idea how they could even calculate it, because those cells in the panel are all in series in which case a single antenna shadow would drop power by 30-50% due to internal resistance.

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