Submitted by izumi3682 t3_106e70m in Futurology
izumi3682 OP t1_j3g5aqy wrote
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
From the article.
>This phenomenon — of some people preferring robots (in this case, an apparently-neutral robot over an opinionated human) becomes more important as we enter an era of AI-enabled robots. And it may partly explain why AI-enabled robots enjoy public support despite warning from prominent figures ranging from Henry Kissinger to former Google boss Eric Schmidt about the risks of unfettered AI. If someone suspects that opinionated-humans in authority intend to do them or their family harm, then that person will probably prefer an apparently neutral, AI-enabled robot over an obviously bigoted human.
And this truly telling finish...
>If any one thing is clear, it is that we are intellectually unprepared for both this era and the debate that it will spur.
People do not have a clue what is coming. But they will all know about the year 2025 when true, albeit limited AGI comes into existence. But that AGI will not stay limited for long. By the year 2028 it will quite complex indeed. And once that happens ASI is very close to realization. And that would constitute a TS. I place it about the year 2029, give or take two years.
Absolutely around the mid decade there will be legislation attempting to roll back the power of AI, but it will be far too little, far too late. In fact right now today, the Europeans are attempting legislation to control the development of AI. Sorry, that cat is already out the bag.
I hope it all goes well for us. I think it will.
Tangentially related. This is about how humans will come to prefer AI "creativity" to that of "inferior" humans.
And that leads me to another consideration. What happens when we remove mental illness and psychiatric disorders from the the world? Have you ever read a poem by Sylvia Plath? Have you ever remarked on the unusual beauty of a Van Gogh painting. Did you like the band "Nirvana", or Amy Winehouse? It is that kind of "defect" in human cognition that brings about the transcendent forms of art that evokes such an amazing resonance in us, the observer or listener. The same thing that makes a human crazier than a shit-house rat, is also the same thing that makes that human a genius. Especially an expressive genius.
The 100K question then is, will we miss that? Do we really want to give it up? Mental illness and psychiatric disorders hurt. I imagine everyone wants to take those agonies away. Right?
LegendaryPlayboy t1_j3gollf wrote
People don't have a clue what is coming.
izumi3682 OP t1_j3hhp7n wrote
Well, I mostly meant thems outside of rslashfuturology. But since you offer. I do have a few questions.
What year will prices for everything drop precipitously as a "post-scarcity" economy takes hold in the USA? Alternatively, when will UBI be available in the USA?
What year will the first AI generated hit alt-rock song come to be. By this I mean that no humans are involved in any of the production to include composition, voice(s) and instrumentals. Think a "Chatgpt" to make music on demand.
What year will humans no longer go to flight school, medical school or law school, because the ARA, that is computing derived AI, robotics and automation, will be able to do it all. Consider this.
What year will nuclear fusion technology enter the grid? Did you know that we just launched a satellite to investigate the probability that we can exploit solar energy from space? What year will humanity become a "type 1" Kardashev civilization? Meaning, all necessary energy is derived from the sun or from the engine of stars.
What year will the first human dedicated aging reversal technology become available for humans? And an ancillary question to that. Who determines who gets aging reversal technology? Will only the rich live forever? Will the nursing homes be filled with those who cannot afford aging reversal technologies. And how will that go over with the mewling mass of humanity (Read: Me)
What do you think GPT-4 is going to bring to the table for humanity? It comes out early this year you know.
And what year do you believe a "technological singularity" will occur? My answer is all of these with the exception of the schooling for certain professions, will occur before the year 2030. Most between 2026 and 2028. The schooling may continue as late as 2035, but then it too will be gone. Why do you need a doctor, a lawyer or a flight school when the ARA does it all. And around the year 2035, all humans will be able to "do it all".
I think I got a clue what is coming. What do you think of this?
Ask me anything! ;)
idranh t1_j3izdwx wrote
>What year will prices for everything drop precipitously as a "post-scarcity" economy takes hold in the USA? Alternatively, when will UBI be available in the USA?
Tony Seba and his think tank RethinkX believe this will happen by the end of the decade at the earliest and the middle of the next decade at the latest. It seems fantastical and far too close, but they understand exponential growth and they have a history of being right. And all of this doesn't take AGI or transformative AI into consideration. Things are about to get crazy.
LegendaryPlayboy t1_j3hj8kw wrote
Ask me anything... that is at least a bit futuristic to intriguing me. These questions are obsolete to me.
izumi3682 OP t1_j3hk992 wrote
>that is at least a bit futuristic to intriguing me. These questions are obsolete to me.
I do not understand what you are saying. Your sentences do not make sense to me. I ask you, is English your first language?
Test19s t1_j3hqe2c wrote
The competition between robots and humans for inherently scarce or finite resources could get ugly.
izumi3682 OP t1_j3kamhe wrote
You changed your response mr legends. Unfortunately for you, all reddit responses go to my email. So I have your original response, before you changed it.
u/izumi3682
u/LegendaryPlayboy replied to your comment in r/Futurology · u/LegendaryPlayboy · 1 votes People don't have a clue what is coming...? Ask me anything.
hummingbird_mywill t1_j3m6usa wrote
I don’t think this article is particularly well reasoned. He takes three very different scenarios and tries to weave them into one thesis, when in fact only one of those scenarios is relevant to his point and the data doesn’t support it.
His theory is that people prefer robots over humans because they might be “opinionated.” To support this he cites his anecdote about empty human cash registers and line ups to use the self-checkout, and a woman says she likes self-checkout so she won’t be judged by the cashier. Yet the author cites a source that only 1/3 people prefer self-checkout to a cashier, so this point doesn’t support his thesis.
He cites preference of speed cameras over cops and even acknowledges the real danger people have interacting with police… reducing this to fear of interacting with an “opinionated” person is disingenuous and frankly a little offensive. Does not support the thesis.
He cites preference for autonomous AI military pilots who are not afraid to “die.” Obviously this is a massive military advancement, both strategically and simply preserving human life. Nothing to do with the thesis of “opinionated” people.
Self-driving cars versus cabbies/Uber eliminates real risk of sexual assault. Not relevant to the thesis. There might be something there for people who simply like having the freedom to choose the music/podcast, but we have no data for that.
As for the comment about mental disorders and creativity… yes I am bipolar and yes we are tremendously creative, thank you thank you. Unfortunately we die prematurely in vast numbers on account of our disorder if it’s untreated. However, our disorder makes us quite attractive in the early days and thus we tend to procreate before our disorder really takes over and ruins lives and bipolar stays in the gene pool.
What are you implying when you say eliminate mental illness/mental disorder? This is a really interesting discussion that’s pretty unrelated to the article you posted but I would need more defining. To be clear, no one has a f**king clue what causes bipolar most of the time. It is guesswork to treat the symptoms, which are what define the presence of the disorder or not. The underlying causes are unknown, so it’s not a matter of hitting a gene switch.
Are we talking eugenics? Evil robot overloads massacring us? Or just treated and more healthy? Given that we procreate, how is it going to be eliminated?
Second last point, a person can remain mentally disordered and be not mentally ill. My disorder is very well managed and I am no more “ill” than maybe someone with a temper. I am currently not as prolific/productive in art or academics now as I was when I was ill and untreated, however I would be dead by now if I wasn’t treated so every year it continues to pay off for society. My quality of life is also better (obviously, I’m alive).
Finally, if a cure to mental disorder was an option, it’s not up to society to decide whether or not it’s “worth it” to take or not, pitting their productivity against their life. It’s a decision for the disordered people to make. I know most would take it. Would it be a bummer for the world to not have “the Nutcracker” and other works? Sure. But Tchaikovsky was also utterly miserable 10/12 months of the year and if there was a cure for his disorder then who are we to deny it? And we don’t know that he couldn’t write it while healthy.
izumi3682 OP t1_j3oyocz wrote
Well, my point is that we are going to remove mental illness and psychiatric disorders from the world. Consider those who are born deaf. Or those who are born with Down's Syndrome. We are also going to remove pretty much any kind of pathological or congenital condition from the human race. And in less than 20 years, if that, to boot.
So there are those, and they are significant percentage, of people who are congenitally deaf or have Down's Syndrome that believe that they are perfectly happy and normal people. That what they experience is not any kind of a defect at all. Here is the problem with that. It doesn't matter. Technology will come into existence, that will eliminate such pathology from the human race. Whether these communities want to accept such treatment is on them.
I saw something that made me almost laugh out loud in a "you've got to be kidding me!", laugh. There is this movie, it's called "The Immortals" "Eternals" I think. In this movie, Hollywood has overlaid certain kinds of thinking that is popular in US society today. Specifically, diversity and inclusion. I mean I'm all on board with that. But there was one character that just made me laugh out loud. It was an "immortal" "Eternal" who apparently came into existence deaf/mute. Really? An immortal realized deaf/mute? I think we've jumped the shark here.
No sir, here is what is actually coming down the pike. And super soon to boot.
Also one of the points that I was trying to make in my submission statement is that the AI is going to transcend all of human creativity. It's already begun. Wait until the first AI made movies are produced within minutes from a prompt by a human. Or an AI produced "alt-rock" song is produced in seconds by a prompt from a human. People just tell the machine what they want, and the machine delivers it. Whither human artists?
izumi3682 OP t1_j69cjaj wrote
I am downvoted, but with no comment. What did I write here that you don't agree with?
Inariameme t1_j3i0045 wrote
Isn't agony the thing that will be normalized by intelligent treatment? Or, isn't that the moment before cognition the first thing they'll map stimulus for?
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