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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j3mmfkf wrote

AGI should be here soon, within a decade most likely.

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3njktf wrote

can't fucking wait. AGI is literally going to make ASI so quick LOL.

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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j3nkgeo wrote

Same, I’m hyped for these next few years.

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3nkoi5 wrote

thank god im young. i hope we can finally be the last generation of humans to HAVE to die by aging. Our doctors are getting close, and AGI / ASI will absolutely fucking smash that problem. I want to be in fucking Altered Carbon.

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OblongRectum t1_j3okjv4 wrote

>I want to be in fucking Altered Carbon.

You want to be in a dystopia? Where the wealthy just keep taking and concentrating wealth and never fucking die? iirc poor people did not have their stacks placed into new bodies if they couldn't afford it

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Helpful_Opinion2023 t1_j3qapth wrote

If your standard of living and quality of life are so great that you are effectively immortal and without serious want, then who cares how much the rich are hoarding?

The value of their wealth sharply drops in meaning if everyone else is well off enough to say "eh, so? Who cares what's in your bank account!?!?"

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icedrift t1_j3qxhe5 wrote

I take it you haven't watched or read altered carbon. It would be like if only billionairs were immortal and the rest of us were slaves under threat of having to pay off our debts by selling our physical bodies to our debtors.

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OblongRectum t1_j3rls17 wrote

I don't think you know what you're talking about lol. maybe you're mixing up IPs

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[deleted] t1_j3oandw wrote

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3obb4b wrote

Nah if we get AGI in 10 years we are chilling.

I'll sacrifice my soul right now for that.

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[deleted] t1_j3r1t60 wrote

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3r6jvb wrote

doesn't matter how many animal species we lose if we have AGI let alone ASI. We will be creating species from scratch in a lab.

I think all consumer electronics should be dummy devices with nice screens that never need to be replaced unless you want a different design. all software based on a local server for home / powerful things, or cloud for everything else. obviously there is more nuance.

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[deleted] t1_j3r9102 wrote

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3r9dej wrote

I'm talking more about ASI than AGI. But even with AGI i think it will be possible. hard but possible. Insects and bacterium replicate like crazy. especially if we design them to. We can release them into specific habitats and let them multiply. won't be instantaneous, but i think it would be doable to some extent.

maybe not for the whole world population at first, but we will build up to it eventually.

regardless, i still assume a lot of people are going to starve to death. thats a given.

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PolyHertz t1_j3p6ozp wrote

iirc in that series they were just using a chip implanted in people to make copies of their memories/personality. No one actually lived any longer, just when they died a body got implanted with said copy and were in a deep state of denial believing they were that person because it was all they knew.

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JhonnyHopkins t1_j3o0sjh wrote

Makes me grateful to be born in this time period, if we happened to “spawn in” one or two generations prior however…

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SorakaWithAids t1_j3o0xgm wrote

Yeah... they still might be able to make it though. Someone who is 50 now could potentially still have another 40-50yrs to wait

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mjrossman OP t1_j3mmt8y wrote

I would tend to agree that something resembling AGI might manifest. curious to hear your thoughts about the Alberta Plan and if any of the 12 steps sound like they might be possible within 1-5 years.

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rationalkat t1_j3o0wgk wrote

Richard Sutton himself set a timeframe of 5-10 years for realising all 12 steps of the 'Alberta Plan'.

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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j3mn8y9 wrote

I believe 1-8 are likely, 9-10 5 or 7 years out and final two are 10 years out.

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Kupo_Master t1_j3n82f7 wrote

On which basis?

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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j3n87j7 wrote

Personal opinion combined with studying and researching AI.

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CyberAchilles t1_j486ug7 wrote

The same was said about Fusion energy, about Graphene technology, etc Always a decade away. Prepare to be disappointed when AGI isn't here in a decade.

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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j48ikgi wrote

It’s a prediction not something guaranteed, sure. Being cynical doesn’t help either though.

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CyberAchilles t1_j48jaho wrote

I'm not being cynical, I am beinga realist.

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Zakku_Rakusihi t1_j48t81r wrote

I mean we won’t know until ten years pass. I see AI research speeding up.

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mjrossman OP t1_j3mg02c wrote

considering all the hype around ChatGPT, I felt like I should concretize some thoughts around ML at present and AI in the immediate future. the main point is that we're already crossing thresholds that indicate an accelerating path towards AGI and a much different looking society because of it. I link to several directions that ML can be studied in order to achieve AGI, but this is mostly an introductory post. may write again about this subject very soon.

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Helpful_Opinion2023 t1_j3qavkk wrote

Is there a good starting point for a layperson to learn about the fundamentals of AI/ML/etc?

I come from a business/finance background, with an undergrad in business admin that was a decade ago. Do I need to basically learn computer science and programming concepts from scratch? Or is there a way to onboard myself to grasping the concepts of AI without basically restarting my education from scratch?

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icedrift t1_j3qyl1w wrote

I gotchu. First thing you need to do is learn Python. You don't need to be a master by any means but you should understand variables, expressions, functions, classes, packages/dependencies, file systems, and basic algebra. Run through this amazing book and you'll understand plenty to get into the ML side of things.

Once you know a bit of Python complete this course Practical Machine Learning for Coders. This is an extremely highly regarded modern crash course to machine learning that is bringing a lot new people into the industry. In the very first lesson you'll build an image classifier that didn't even exist 5 years ago.

As you go deeper and deeper Math becomes more important but CS isn't really necessary.

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unholyravenger t1_j3rwzvs wrote

For a conceptual understanding start with 3b1b . One of the best explanations of the underlying concepts I've seen. This is really the foundation of everything.

Next, there are 2 main concepts to understand, and that is how each layer of a NN works and the overall architecture. A quick list of layers to get your head around: Linear also called Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), CNN Convolutional Neural Network, then you have a family of layers that handles sequences like sentences. These are RNN, LSTM, and Transformers. But all of these are built on the same concepts as the 3b1b videos. If you're more of a math person this is a great way to conceptualize what each of these layers is doing.

Next different architectures. Start will simple classifiers, which you should already have a good understanding of. Then check out how GAN's work and how you can use two networks to train each other. Then maybe you can go to the state of the art with Diffusion networks. I think this is a bit easier to understand than how each layer works.

All the while playing around in python, and prepackaged ML stuff to apply your knowledge to something concrete. Make a simple classifier, download, and fine-tune a diffusion network on some dataset. Coursera has some really good classes, particularly by Andrew NG who is one of the biggest ML educators out there.

​

Bonus Resources:
ML Streat Talk: Podcast talking to people in the industry. Lots of deep concepts here.
2min Papers The hype channel. Learn about all the new stuff coming out.
Yannic Kilcher: Go deep into different papers written on ML and how they work at a very deep level.

​

Good luck it's a lot, but no one knows everything and you need surprisingly little to get started.

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Middle_Cauliflower64 t1_j3rin1k wrote

Wanted to add that even the Butlerian Jihad ultimately ended with computers and humans living symbioticly together; thanks Duncan!

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dopechez t1_j3pku0t wrote

I, for one, welcome our new silicon-based overlords

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mjrossman OP t1_j3pl7k8 wrote

just keep in mind that it's humans who get to be overlords of silicon first. 😉

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FuturologyBot t1_j3mk65e wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/mjrossman:

considering all the hype around ChatGPT, I felt like I should concretize some thoughts around ML at present and AI in the immediate future. the main point is that we're already crossing thresholds that indicate an accelerating path towards AGI and a much different looking society because of it. I link to several directions that ML can be studied in order to achieve AGI, but this is mostly an introductory post. may write again about this subject very soon.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/107i7yv/a_singular_trajectory_the_signs_of_agi/j3mg02c/

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