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manual_tranny OP t1_j419hzw wrote

Forecasts for the production of photovoltaic panels are showing continued exponential growth over the next decade. The "economies of volume" are at play, according to Silicon Valley venture capitalist-turned solar entrepreneur Bill Nussey. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is expected to lead to the installation of 950 million solar modules.

15 to 20 years ago, the world did not have 5 TW of plant generation capacity. Unstable polysilicon prices lead to major drama in the solar industry, earning solar stocks the moniker "the solar coaster". But in the wake of bankruptcies and lawsuits, China's manufacturing power took the industry by storm, driving the per-watt price of polysilicon down over 96%.

Today, with the IRA as a catalyst, domestic manufacturing and installations are expected to double every few years, and continue doubling. As long as we can build the required storage, intermittent wireless fusion power will soon be able to power the entire globe.

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UniversalMomentum t1_j42glck wrote

Fusion reactors will never be cheaper to run than just harvesting fusion via solar panels. Near zero chance of that. Plus most nations don't want something that complex or proprietary where they can't work on it themselves, can't make the parts themselves and could be cut off from the technology entirely by the handful of Nations that control it. Still need special fuel too so you don't get energy independence like with solar. You are buying fusion fuel pellets forever and hopping they stay cheap.

There's just no need to try to compete against solar costs AND energy storage has far more uses than just fusion.

The energy storage costs will go down to 20-40 USD per megawatt hour and that will be that for competing tech.

How will all these developing nations really ever get fusion and how would fusion ever possibly meet the economics of scale of solar or batteries that can be mass produced in factories globally?

Unlimited power isn't about fusion and energy density. You only need so much energy density and only to the point where it's not working against your costs per megawatt. Unlimited power is about keeping costs low and that means mass production and the lowest complexity that can get the job done.

You should rethink your perspective here. The best technology is always the simplest technology that can do the job not the most overpowered and often complex solution.

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useibeidjdweiixh t1_j42ihmr wrote

I believe he was referring to the sun with 'wireless fusion' which I find rather funny.

You make good points on fusion though.

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zoinkability t1_j44nyx2 wrote

Yes, took me a couple reads to get it. It is funny but perhaps a bit too subtle for some

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