In theory US could comfortably win this race with Nasa's budget but in practice it wont because of Congress way of spending that budget, you simply wont win that race with the SLS mindset, luckily they have SpaceX and the companies that are on the rise, like Relativity, Rocket Lab and others, which will certainly carry the US over their shoulders to the end goal which is Moon and Mars colonization, maybe asteroid and planet mining as well