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MpVpRb t1_ja94me4 wrote

Experts?

More likely clueless pundits and academics with no practical experience

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UniversalMomentum t1_ja7k1hp wrote

No they can't. I think a fair metric is to judge the rate of robotic progress by the state of robotic vacuum cleaners and it's not that impressive that you're going to come anywhere even remotely close to having like 39% of jobs potentially on The Chopping Block no less that you would actually have the robots made in enough Surplus in 10 years to threaten those Industries as the headline might suggest.

Also if you're just talking about fake AI/maxhinr learning using code to replace white collar workers sitting at desks then you're not talking about robots you just talking about better apps.

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leaky_wand t1_ja8d6ei wrote

turn on Roomba

walk away

hear it fucking the underside of your couch five minutes later

put up a virtual wall, reposition it, restart it

hear it chewing up the cord to your floor lamp

pull the brush out, unwind the cord, put the brush back in, restart it

it complains the brush is dirty

pull the brush out, cut all the hair off with scissors, get the hair out of the little cap hole thing, restart it

tiny container is full, leaves balls of stuff all over

pull out the tray, dump it in the trash, reinsert it, restart, walk away

Roomba starts fucking the back of a chair until it runs out of batteries

get out actual vacuum cleaner

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Nicksterr2000 t1_ja9cfop wrote

This mirrors my experience too, not to mention it seems to run for hours, and isn't exactly quiet...I'd rather just pull out my vacuum and do it myself. I had bought a roomba and the mopping one ended up selling them both about a year later.

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Jasrek t1_jabkp0q wrote

I program mine to run while I'm at work. Sometimes I'll come back and it'll be stranded somewhere, but 90% of the time it's back recharging in it's cradle.

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Artanthos t1_jaa00lo wrote

If only AI wasn’t accelerating so quickly.

There’s a very real chance the AI will be smarter than the average human in 10 years.

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paprikapeter t1_ja7p7rs wrote

That won't happen. Automated Vacuum cleaners are still pritty bad and far away from replacing normal vacuum cleaners, despite beeing in the market for 10years or so. I havent seen any device loading and unloading my dishwasher or clean up my rooms so the automated vacuum cleaner can fo his magic. Also laundry is war away from full automation.

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could_use_a_snack t1_ja8kc5p wrote

Funny, I was thinking that 39% of domestic jobs are already being done by robots.

I don't hand wash dishes very often. My machine does it

Same with clothes.

I don't sweep my floors, my vacuum sucks the dirt up into a nice little bag. Not to mention the actual robot vac.

I don't hang my clothes out to dry and collect them later, the machine dries them for me.

My coffee is ready before I get up in the morning, and toat is a lever press away.

I could go on. But are these "robots" depends on you definition. But you could make a pretty good case I think.

Point is, automation has been with us for a long time now and will continue to become more functional. But it will be over time, not a one machine "robot" solution

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paprikapeter t1_ja8ul7w wrote

Yes you are right, those things help a lot, but they help you do something. Those machines dont do it for you

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WillBottomForBanana t1_ja9gw2z wrote

Many of them do it for you. The fact that you have to load them doesn't change that.

Roombas are robots, but someone has to empty them.

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Cindexxx t1_ja9kiiu wrote

Nope, some new ones empty themselves. Sure eventually you have to empty the larger container, but as long as they don't get lost they'll return to the charger, empty, and go back out again when needed. Pretty much fully automated.

Appliances aren't robots though. You don't call a regular vacuum a robot because it picks things up for you. You wouldn't call a washing machine a robot either. It's an appliance.

Now if we had a little rolly guy that would collect dishes, wash them (in a dishwasher + spot cleaning "by hand"), and put them away, THAT'S a robot.

Same for clothes. Assuming you have regular places for you clothes it could grab them from the dirty hamper, wash, fold, and put them away.

Honestly we could probably build a robot to do those things already, we have good enough tech. When it's the same items repeatedly rather than new stuff, pattern recognition is pretty great.

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WillBottomForBanana t1_ja9lnm1 wrote

>Sure eventually you have to empty the larger container

Your just moving tasks around to pretend that they are accomplished. This is dishonest of you.

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Cindexxx t1_jaa80or wrote

But it is noticeably less work. Empty it every single time or empty it every 50 times? It's basically maintenance now. Same for a robot that could do laundry. Eventually you have to refill the soap. You don't have to do it every time though, just like once every 100 or however many loads worth of soap you can add at a time.

Robot doesn't mean it needs to be fully automated.

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WillBottomForBanana t1_ja9liek wrote

>You wouldn't call a washing machine a robot either.

I've been calling my washing machines, dishwashers and dryers robots for years.

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iStoleTheHobo t1_ja9r87v wrote

Aye, who the hell is out here wasting enough time on "domestic chores" to warrant investing in this hypothetical house-bot tech?

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k3surfacer t1_ja856nm wrote

>Also laundry is war away from full automation.

And let's not talk about ironing.

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AbyssalRedemption t1_ja9kgq3 wrote

Oh god… robot ironer burns a hole in the ironing board, and then the floor

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tallperson117 t1_ja9i5xn wrote

Not exactly true. I had a Samsung robot vac about 6 years ago and it sucked (not in the way it was supposed to!), constantly getting stuck, eating cords, not finding it's way back to the dock, etc.

Newer vacs are WAY smarter, although you need to do some research and some are pricey. I got a Roboroc now and it's amazing. It's gotten stuck maybe twice in the 6 months I've had it, it keeps the floors spotless by vacuuming AND mopping, and is smart/capable enough to recognize floor types and lift the mop up when it hits carpet. If I move furniture around it instantly recognizes it and updates the map, it'll notice objects on the ground, recognize what said object is (cord, shoe, shirt, dog shit, etc) and both avoid it and let me know what it is. It empties its own bin, washes and dries its mop, and empties and fills its dirty/clean water tanks. I have a golden retriever who is constantly tracking dirt and fur in, but this robot keeps my place spotless with essentially no vacumming needed from me. With proper maintenance the little dude is a god send.

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cosmic_censor t1_jaa5lea wrote

Same, my Roborock is great. I would put on par with a dishwasher in terms of chore automation.

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paprikapeter t1_ja9qnrr wrote

I will wait until you get kids

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Jasrek t1_jabktx6 wrote

I dunno, the Roboroc probably cleans better than kids.

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Okiefolk t1_jaaucdm wrote

Man don’t kill the hope! We want chore bots!

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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_ja8p1zi wrote

Can anybody find any place in that article where it links to the study or the research? There’s nothing bugs me more than an article full of highly specific percentages, that’s actually so vague that it’s not worth discussing.

I’d love to know what kind of specific tasks these experts think are going to be automated.

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euronews-english OP t1_ja7818z wrote

According to new research, AI may be able to automate about 39 per cent of domestic work within 10 years.

In a world where unpaid domestic work currently takes up almost as much time as paid work, automation could have significant social and economic implications.

For instance, these new technologies will most likely be only affordable to wealthy or middle-class households - giving them even more time for paid work and leisure - and might even pose a threat to some low-income professions by reducing demand for domestic workers.

Since experts suggest that the potential benefits are stronger in housework than in adult care, the risk of AI taking over care professions is minimal, the study found.

On the other hand, poorer households unable to afford this technology would be left spending more time on domestic work, further worsening economic and social inequalities.

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tranding t1_ja8v139 wrote

I am pretty happy with robot neato vacuum and robot narwhal mop. 10/10 will continue to buy robot vacuums and mops.

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ToothlessGrandma t1_ja9oznb wrote

I just want a household robot that can do dishes, do and put away laundry, and other general cleaning around the house. A personal robot I guess. I'd happily pay pretty much anything for that.

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tonypizzaz t1_ja8jk91 wrote

Idea - a robot that uses whatever you have in your pantry to come up with a meal. Basically just a private chef. We all want private chefs it’s the only thing I covet from the rich.

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Envenger t1_jaa4kyl wrote

10 years? They don't know that shit they are talking about.

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TheFriendlyFinn t1_jabmfvn wrote

I just want a bot that folds laundry. Then I am happy.

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Murican_Infidel t1_jabvt8g wrote

I look forward to the day when robots can cook for me.

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FuturologyBot t1_ja7a917 wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/euronews-english:

According to new research, AI may be able to automate about 39 per cent of domestic work within 10 years.

In a world where unpaid domestic work currently takes up almost as much time as paid work, automation could have significant social and economic implications.

For instance, these new technologies will most likely be only affordable to wealthy or middle-class households - giving them even more time for paid work and leisure - and might even pose a threat to some low-income professions by reducing demand for domestic workers.

Since experts suggest that the potential benefits are stronger in housework than in adult care, the risk of AI taking over care professions is minimal, the study found.

On the other hand, poorer households unable to afford this technology would be left spending more time on domestic work, further worsening economic and social inequalities.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11d8q10/robots_could_do_39_of_domestic_chores_within_10/ja7818z/

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BernieEcclestoned t1_ja7hmbv wrote

I've wanted a robot butler since the Rocky movies came out!

"I wanted a sports car, not no walking trash can!" ―Paulie

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Killer-death-cricket t1_ja8txh9 wrote

FF 20yrs News story : Was there a message in the movie Wall-E?

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Nekot-The-Brave t1_ja97rf6 wrote

But instead we're training them to do stuff people enjoy

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RantControl t1_ja9jjkl wrote

What a load. Remember when passwords were going to be completely replaced with biometrics? Still waiting...

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Terrible-Sir742 t1_jacgw32 wrote

I mean... Fingerprint locks are on phones and laptops, I don't type passwords in anymore.

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kompootor t1_ja9jkkp wrote

>On average our experts predicted that 39 percent of the time spent on a domestic task will be automatable within ten years.

From the paper's abstract (Lehdonvirta etal 2023. As always, the headlines seem to capture it just right.

>Japanese male experts were notably pessimistic about the potentials of domestic automation, a result we interpret through gender disparities in the Japanese household. Our contributions are providing the first quantitative estimates concerning the future of unpaid work and demonstrating how such predictions are socially contingent, with implications to forecasting methodology.

This was the purpose of the paper, not the survey or the 39% number. It's to improve the methodology of these kinds of surveys and show that there is cultural bias in respondents that must be weighted.

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ogrefab t1_ja9s0wv wrote

Wow, 10 years to do less than 40% of household chores?

And I thought I was lazy spreading them out over a few weekends.

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davidolson22 t1_jaa0akd wrote

I already have a robot that washes and dries my clothes. All I have to do is put them in.

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TyperMcTyperson t1_jaa5i66 wrote

10 years to do a chore? That doesn't seem very efficient.

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Steamer61 t1_jaajsr0 wrote

They could but they won't. These predictions are always so much more rosy than reality. I'd say that it's going to be more like 25 years at least, more likely 50.

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CoolmanWilkins t1_ja9s07v wrote

I've been reading a lot about domestic violence lately so at first misread this headline... now wondering about that being automated too.

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RufussSewell t1_ja90eh1 wrote

Robots already wash my dishes, vacuum my floor and most importantly, clean my laundry. They also cook my food, and to the extent that my KitchenAid is a robot, it does most of the prep for meals as well.

I’d say it’s already more than 39%.

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