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UniversalMomentum t1_j9bzphg wrote

I think Starlink will generally have problems competing with cellulars never ending growth and speed increases. There just aren't that many people in the world that need the service AND can afford it and the demographics of people who travel globally and need starlink also seem small.

When you look at their total subscribers, the business model does not look good at all. All that work and maintenance for like 400-500k users?

I think it's actually more useful as a military tool than a consumer product because that's where you can get people to afford expensive communications in remote area they mostly overwise would not need.

Plus cellular will just keep getting better and cable and fiber will keep expanding, so the most unique use is probably military, not global roaming.


Washout22 t1_j9d0gaj wrote

Capex of 5 billion a year and revenue of 25 billion when the constellation is complete.

They already have over a million users.

It's expected that starlink will carry 50% of global rural internet access once it's complete.

Each v2 satellite is an additional 480 gbps.

The amount of global customers will be in the billions once its scaled. The price is coming down.

This price point is for global access, it's much cheaper for stationary access, as the price is country dependent.

It's a huge money maker.


craeftsmith t1_j9c58c5 wrote

What you are describing is generally what killed the first iteration of the Iridium satellite business. They provided service to places where there weren't any subscribers.


ethereal3xp OP t1_j9c1zq0 wrote

Some good points

Also for someone who travels a lot (and can afford it)... this service could come handy


Royal_Intention_8282 t1_j9c6ben wrote

It’s pointless outside of rural areas. Almost all major carriers offer international plans for like $10 more a month. For everything else there’s wifi and Wi-Fi calling.


upyoars t1_j9c8djq wrote

How does cellular compete with starlink when starlink sats are superior?


Atworkwasalreadytake t1_j9d33m6 wrote

The person you replied to mentions cellulars “never ending growth and speed increases.” You’re referring to a comparison right now, they are talking about the near future.


upyoars t1_j9d685q wrote

but how does cellular have "never ending growth and speed increases".. SpaceX launches like 50 Starlink satellites a week... i dont see anything like that from cellular companies.


Atworkwasalreadytake t1_j9df398 wrote

That says more about your lack of knowledge than anything else.

Cell companies are all in high gear with 5G rollout and 6G development.

Do the new SpaceX launches represent newer faster tech or is it just about finishing the constellation rollout?

SpaceX and Cellular really aren't even competitors. In business we'd call them substitutes.


maciver6969 t1_j9dni6d wrote

I agree with you mostly, but you do miss some valid points. And you all assume that everywhere in the USA and the world has good cell coverage and reasonable internet. We had a verizon tower fail 3 years ago and it is finally being worked on NOW. Since it failed I get 1-2 bar at home and no high speed internet for long before it crawls again.


It doesnt matter that they are working fast if they dont maintain the service and actually work in the area you live. So rural areas get fucked, while other areas have "over-coverage". Hell look at the gulf coast, if you are not in New Orleans you dont get priority repair. Lake Charles was out with some services for 5 months after the last hurricane. Then you have to factor in terrain, if you live in the mountains cell coverage is spotty even in california. Communities like Anza and Aguanga fought for 15 years to get more towers in their area and some still have no internet or cell access.

All this has to be taken in when saying cell are in high gear, while true it doesnt represent anything beside the "priority" locations. It is hard to take them at good faith on their expansions when they have never met any of the promises to so many communities.

I agree cell and starlink are not direct competitiors. The cell service is great for where they have a fuckton of towers available and where maintained, but the rest of the nation is just shit outta luck with them at least in the medium term timeframe, while starlink already has a working system that they are improving and filling gaps almost weekly.

I have a different view on the cell and fiber and all the new tech that has been promised to our area now for over 10 years. At&t setup fiber in my area, so did the Verison Fios system, then just STOPPED expanding at all. I live less than a mile from the Fiber optic trunk line, and they send me mail every month or two offering fiber but then come to the time to actually come install they call and say Nope.


Unavailablename2 t1_j9dq8j9 wrote

What are the current challenges for military tools that this would resolve?