Submitted by darth_nadoma t3_10ythci in Futurology
Comments
CedarAndFerns t1_j7zvfqx wrote
This is the future. We really need to be pushing for whatever the allowance is called, for all people to ensure they have income. In my lifetime I fully expect about 50% of all jobs to disappear due to AI and automation.
Remind me in 35 years...
tarrox1992 t1_j80paw8 wrote
/r/basicincome
A universal basic income (that's the phrase most often used) would also eliminate the need for a few other forms of social programs, such as food stamps.
edit: I'd also like to point out we could have implemented a UBI ages ago if the elite were taxed appropriately
Semi-Hemi-Demigod t1_j80u66q wrote
I'd prefer to model it as a universal dividend rather than a basic income. That way if the economy grows everyone gets more money.
CedarAndFerns t1_j8166y0 wrote
That sounds too fair unfortunately. But what a great idea.
Landmen t1_j826rdm wrote
What if the economy shrinks? Does the dividend also shrink?
wienercat t1_j80wzvq wrote
> whatever the allowance is called, for all people to ensure they have income.
Universal basic income.
The scary part is that we will probably have a mass joblessness scenario due to automation before we actually admit that a UBI is necessary.
Getting companies to pay workers more has been a problem for decades, even when they have been enjoying huge productivity gains leading to ever growing profit margins.
Things are gonna get much worse for the unskilled labor market because of automation. Not that I have a problem with those soul sucking jobs going away, I have a problem with them going away and nothing being done to offset those people's income.
SadMacaroon9897 t1_j82teto wrote
That's why it should not be funded by salaries but instead by land. Valuable land will be valuable no matter who owns it so the revenue can't flee. Likewise it'll temper the speculative nature of land ownership and provide a more consistent level of income.
Also fun fact: UBI was suggested over 100 years ago and that was the suggested method of sustaining it.
Soi_Boi_13 t1_j84oim1 wrote
If you think only “unskilled” labor is going to feel the pain of this you have another thing coming to you. In some ways, skilled labor fields are most at risk. I can see most programming jobs getting automated away more quickly and easily than most plumbing jobs (though both will happen eventually).
wienercat t1_j84u66z wrote
Lol someone isn't a programmer and probably doesn't work in skilled labor.
Most skilled labor jobs aren't as simple as you think. People having been telling my profession, accounting, that our jobs would be automated away for decades. The only stuff that's been automated away? The unskilled labor...
grchelp2018 t1_j84yvgg wrote
People have been saying a lot of things for decades, doesn't mean it will never happen. AI is coming for skilled labor as well. You'll have one experienced guy being able to do the work of 5 with the help of ai.
wienercat t1_j8533wd wrote
Never said it wouldn't happen. It's just not going to happen anytime soon.
Being able to pull from a database of resources to answer questions on an exam doesn't make an AI a qualified doctor or lawyer. It means it can properly query its own database.
grchelp2018 t1_j899me3 wrote
A lot of knowledge work is simply knowing stuff and knowing what to look for and where. Our current setup doesn't allow for robot lawyers standing in front of a jury maybe but they can absolutely replace the associates doing the grunt work of finding precedents/cases, drafting and proof reading briefs etc.
Soi_Boi_13 t1_j850eq6 wrote
I am literally a programmer, nice job.
You’re delusional if you don’t think your job will fall eventually.
And implying that only unskilled labor has been automated away is insane and a complete falsehood. There have been many skilled jobs that have been automated away long ago, such as flight engineers.
Middle management is falling by the wayside now.
In some ways, skilled labor is most at risk because labor costs for skilled labor are so much higher and it raises the incentives to eliminate it.
wienercat t1_j852qsd wrote
If you are a programmer you should know that only basic code will be handled by automation and AI anytime soon. The basic shit that is so simple it can be Google. Anything above that is still beyond AI.
> You’re delusional if you don’t think your job will fall eventually.
Again, people have been saying that about my profession for decades. Saying it will be outsourced too. It's never successfully done long term, someone always ends up having to go back and redo the work or double check it because of errors.
Try telling lawyers, doctors, engineers, research scientists, and any other job where interpretation of rules or regulations occur that their jobs will be automated any time soon. They will laugh at you.
Like the headlines of ChatGPT being able to pass a bunch of professional exams. It doesn't mean it's capable of actually performing the job. It's capable of using data it's been given to answer questions. Give nearly any human access to a database of relevant knowledge, not even connected to the internet, during an exam and they will also pass.
I'm all for automating skilled labor work, I want a future where humans can explore human existence without the required pursuit of soul crushing jobs for money. But acting like it's going to happen anytime soon is lying to yourself.
Hot-Baseballs t1_j80vbt3 wrote
UBI won't ever happen, the wealthy already don't pay taxes and they aren't going to suddenly start paying once human labor is no longer needed. People are going to be left to rot and starve in the streets.
GenoHuman t1_j8cupbn wrote
The wealthy only act in this way because of Capitalism, it's the economical system that govern how people behave and what they deem important in life, in this case it is increasing profits in the short-term at the cost of everything else.
OvermoderatedNet t1_j80lcib wrote
Tbh the decline in birth rates/workforce size (and decline in carrying capacity for immigrants) will probably mask that for 20-30 years. I only hope that comprehensive Northern European-style welfare systems can be implemented in countries with little to no Northern European heritage or influence. Equality between peoples is the heart of the post-WWII world order and its relatively consistent improvements in living standards.
CedarAndFerns t1_j80lqmw wrote
I totally agree with you. I just think it will happen a little bit earlier because...capitalism
OvermoderatedNet t1_j80nely wrote
And I don’t want to think about what happens if the UBI transition ends up rewarding certain prosperous and cohesive cultures over others. Strasserism is no fun.
CedarAndFerns t1_j80oik2 wrote
>Strasserism
sheesh. I had never heard of this term and appreciate the learning moment today. I'll leave that tab open so I can try and decipher the meaning of it. As a grown man I sure wish I had the time, and the money to go back to formal school.
OvermoderatedNet t1_j80u522 wrote
Communazis, basically
TheLastSamurai t1_j81fnrn wrote
We need universal healthcare too
chucklesoclock t1_j817v8w wrote
While at the same time encouraging people to go into engineering and/or robotics repair. That is where good middle class jobs are going to go next.
Dreadweave t1_j821n5d wrote
One machine replaces 6 workers. You only need one engineer to maintain the machine. So that’s 5 workers jobless. Doesn’t matter if they train to be an engineer.
Bender3455 t1_j82gvd7 wrote
Technically, 15 people jobless; three 8 hour shifts
Soi_Boi_13 t1_j84omwj wrote
In the interim, yes. In the long run, a maintenance robot will do that. Humans need not apply. It’s over.
Spirited-Meringue829 t1_j8231vf wrote
Well...consider some thought everyone would be out of work during the Industrial Revolution. People were actively rebelling and destroying machines.
Expect if 50% of jobs disappear, the same thing will happen now as then -- new jobs will appear that we cannot conceive of today. We will never be satisfied with the level of output machines can provide. The demand for human capital will certainly not disappear in our lifetimes.
darth_nadoma OP t1_j88n58w wrote
Independent tailors and cobblers were all put out of business and forced to work at factory
Soi_Boi_13 t1_j84obw2 wrote
I’d go a lot higher than 50%, personally.
UncleHephaestus t1_j80ykmh wrote
Like manufacturing? Because as reliably goes I've never met an industrial robot that operates that well or that consistently.
EchoSolo t1_j814ddc wrote
Could also look up the tree. I’m sure the big wigs aren’t cutting their salaries.
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OvermoderatedNet t1_j80ksha wrote
Falling birth rates + supply-side issues that make it harder for us to sustain the population we already have = no alternative.
imnota4 t1_j80txkx wrote
This was always going to happen, everyone knew it was going to.
bodydamage t1_j7zzngl wrote
This isn’t the slightest bit surprising.
We don’t have any Fanuc robots, but we have several KUKAs and they’re incredible to watch.
Also somewhat of a pain in the ass to work on because of how they’re programmed and how they work.
The jobs they do aren’t complex tasks, just repetitive and mundane. One $600k robot does the work of 4 people.
blkknighter t1_j80sh0n wrote
I’ve bought 15 fanuc’s at once and still didn’t spend anywhere near 600k. What the heck kind of robot are you buying?
Dontpaintmeblack t1_j80t8u6 wrote
How big are those 15 fanucs? Configuration is very crucial to cost. Cobot or full robot?
blkknighter t1_j822aii wrote
Big enough to toss around F250 windshields
Dontpaintmeblack t1_j8c350c wrote
That’s not incredibly heavy and I assume it’s using a suction cup with a vacuum generator? The payload is the biggest factor.
blkknighter t1_j8g7vd5 wrote
I never said payload was a factor. You asked how big they were
Dontpaintmeblack t1_j8g98s5 wrote
Payload is a factor. The weight it’s capable of maneuvering will effect the size of the arm. I’m just curious is all, not being argumentative.
bodydamage t1_j81778c wrote
Large KUKAs, I’d have to get a model number off them, our big ones are lifting 800+ lbs at a time not including the weight of the EOT.
blkknighter t1_j822fdk wrote
I knew it was kuka. I’m guessing it’s aerospace too. Aerospace tax for the same products elsewhere are crazy
bodydamage t1_j822mjg wrote
Nope not aerospace.
The kukas have been extremely reliable, one major failure across multiple robots over the course of 7 years.
blkknighter t1_j823glo wrote
Kukas main industry is aerospace so you still pay that tax indirectly. I can say the same thing about reliability on the fanuc and abb’s I’ve programmed but not so much on the ones other people have. I’ve noticed no real difference for longevity between fanuc, ABB and kuka at places with the same preventative maintenance for all of them
bodydamage t1_j823s81 wrote
They work well and hold up. No complaints from us.
Drtspt t1_j825ppl wrote
I was going to ask the exact same thing!
cowet t1_j81mb3g wrote
Totally depends on the size and capabilities of the robot. I've seen some as high as $1 mil
arckeid t1_j7zhy20 wrote
Mass layoffs and record for robot orders, there is no way we gonna have UBI, right?
darth_nadoma OP t1_j7zj9kd wrote
Exterminism seems more likely
[deleted] t1_j7zuapf wrote
Lowest unemployment in 50 years, so either the mass layoffs aren't all that massive or the mass hiring is significantly more massive. Either way mass layoffs is not really an accurate representation of the US economy. Inflation is a little high, but so is demand and now inflation is falling but demand is not.
ObiwanaTokie t1_j80lsbb wrote
At least where I’m at prices are still climbing annnnd gas is going way back up
Durabys t1_j8323pt wrote
Read Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber to understand that the high paid fullfilling jobs are already mostly gone by 2010. What remains are “safety valve” jobs that Capitalists realize they have to create to give something to occupy the minds of the working class because a mind with nothing to work and with spare time to think about its circumstances would be a mortal danger to them.
cowet t1_j81my0z wrote
It seems to just have hit the tech sector specifically
mhornberger t1_j7zydvc wrote
Layoffs are being offset by job openings elsewhere. Unemployment is at its lowest since 1968 or so. Wages were creeping up even before the pandemic.
And I haven't seen anyone figure out how to fund a UBI. Not one robust enough to replace all means-tested programs, Social Security, the whole bit. Not enough for everyone to live on. It's not like a UBI is a figured-out problem and someone just needs to finally get off their ass and flip the switch.
ktpr t1_j8082yu wrote
There are many proposals for funding UBI. You just have to look. One big idea is to separate the idea of wealth from money and use negative taxation, see: https://citizen-network.org/library/how-to-fund-a-universal-basic-income.html
mhornberger t1_j80b8n1 wrote
Money is just a store for wealth, a way to simplify exchange. It has a pretty high degree of utility, which will be hard to get away from. We know that money and wealth are not literally the same things.
The money in my checking account and even index funds isn't "lying idle." The wealth is out in the economy in the form of loans, investments, stock ownership, etc. The 'money,' the numbers with the dollar signs, are just entries in a ledger. They aren't 'things' we can poke with a stick to get to work. The wealth is already out there doing stuff.
A "negative interest rate" is just a tax, an x-percent reduction of the numbers in my ledger so you can fund benefits, government procurement, etc. We know that taxes exist. The question is whether you can tax (or impose a "negative interest rate" if you prefer that terminology) the population enough, at a high enough rate, to fund this thing, without them just voting you out of office.
Because a UBI needs to replace Social Security and all the means-tested programs already out there, but for everyone. The problem isn't that people don't understand the nature of money, but that the numbers don't pan out. "But people don't realize that wealth and money aren't the same things" doesn't address that.
OriginalCompetitive t1_j80kgez wrote
It would be almost impossible to fund today, but might not be that hard when we finally need it.
If you figure $20k per year for 330M people, that’s $6.6 trillion. Total US GDP is $23T, so today it would be colossally expensive. But GDP grows 2% per year. At that rate, GDP will add an extra $6.6T in about ten years - and that’s after inflation.
So in theory we’ll have an extra $6.6T to play with in another decade. That doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be difficult. But it’s feasible.
saul2015 t1_j811jno wrote
socialism or barbarism
BadUncleBernie t1_j809zh2 wrote
Oh there will be UBI .... but not for us.
OvermoderatedNet t1_j7zse5b wrote
Automation + scarcity = not a good look bro
ktpr t1_j807wt8 wrote
We’ll have something or else we’ll all end up with nothing in the end.
Garglemysac t1_j80rzqc wrote
Who's buying the stuff if nobody is working? Who's paying for ubi if nobody is working? It would end up being the companies paying for ubi to people who are buying things from them?
Landmen t1_j826y2f wrote
Robots both keep jobs here and bring jobs back. They aren't replacing complex tasks... Just the shit that someone in china was doing for 8 bucks a day.
nukeboy01 t1_j80lxfo wrote
I work at a company in Canada that sells Fanuc welding robot, we are expanding at an incredible rate. I would say 95%+ of our client are not buying robots to replace workers, they automate because they can't find welders.
EDIT : Right now the only thing that prevents wide scale use of robots is programming, since not every company can have robot programmers, but with AI and other tech we start to have a lot of robot in production that programs themselves. You put the 3D in a software and you get directly your welding programs for your parts. The operator only need to select the right program for the corresponding part. Those robots are game changer and we can't keep up on production.
Big_Forever5759 t1_j80oh29 wrote
Is fanuc selling better than other companies? What’s the top one that you think will grow a lot?
Crisp-Marshmallow t1_j80t3e6 wrote
As of late 2021, my company exclusively buys Fanuc robots simply due to them being the most competitive (of our suppliers’, usually quoted from 3 or more companies) in pricing and capabilities. It was ABB for years before this change.
poppin_noggins t1_j81qayb wrote
I work in construction and two companies tried robots for their welding operations on a major project. Both failed spectacularly. Slower than humans (mostly due to breaking down/faulty code) and massive repair rates.
darth_nadoma OP t1_j7zfnrl wrote
With human workers demanding higher wages and low birth rates decreasing their supply, the demand for robots is increasing. 2022 was yet another record year for robot orders in North America. The robots are expanding from assembly to material handling and other fields. Automobile industry is still the largest purchaser of industrial robots. But interest in robots from other industries is growing
OvermoderatedNet t1_j7zxyxo wrote
IMO robots and AI are going to be a change factor comparable to domesticated animals, as they don’t have the same levels of demands that humans have (pack animals only require nutrition and veterinary care and each horse can each replace several human laborers, and robots only require energy and maintenance/parts while humans in relatively developed countries require food, water, energy, housing, education, and entertainment).
meflahblah t1_j7zn2mr wrote
Does anyone know what company produces these robots?
babyyodaisamazing98 t1_j7znkqj wrote
There’s like 50 of them. What size/function/precision/use all point you to different companies.
TwentySevenNihilists t1_j800gts wrote
The one in the picture is a FANUC. They're famous for making big yellow arm robots, but they make all kinds of other robots too. There are a lot companies out there making many different kinds of robots.
enginerdz t1_j80p7wh wrote
Fanuc, KUKA, ABB, Yaskawa, Kawasaki, Universal Robots, Staubli, Omron just to name a few.
arzthaus t1_j80qkri wrote
Fanuc, Kuka, Kawasaki, ABB, Epson. Just Google 6-axis robots
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prodoosh t1_j802zaf wrote
Texas Instruments is what I’m invested in. Sure there many others but I love their balance sheets
Actaeus86 t1_j81ffbh wrote
As someone who worked in an automotive factory for over a decade I can tell you robots will easily eliminate the majority of jobs in a factory. My line made 1200 power steering pumps a night. 10 workers, 2 techs to fix machines. Line next to us came in 3 workers, 2 techs and was making 2500 in the same 10 hours. Learn a trade before all those jobs are filled up.
Arinium t1_j81rw2r wrote
Sitting in an automotive factory right now watching a new system that got installed, hardly any of these jobs should be done by people. Standing in one spot and grabbing one part from a box and putting it on the thing before it moves along is no way to live... Sure it pays the bills, but the environment is stress inducing and it can't be fulfilling.
Actaeus86 t1_j81ucmo wrote
It wasn’t fulfilling, but where I live factory jobs are the highest paying jobs around that don’t require a college degree/trade. I would still be there if we hadn’t adopted our daughter and they didn’t like my FMLA. But hey it led to me starting my own business so hopefully happy ending.
partizan92 t1_j815shw wrote
My first name is Rob. I will be legally changing my last name to Ot so I will be employable in the future dystopia.
HiFiGuy197 t1_j821kmm wrote
It’s funny, I was visiting a building today home to an online pharmacy that fills about 30k prescriptions per day.
They had about 50 people working, but fired about 40 percent of the staff, replacing them with a $15 million robot.
FuturologyBot t1_j7zj9a3 wrote
The following submission statement was provided by /u/darth_nadoma:
With human workers demanding higher wages and low birth rates decreasing their supply, the demand for robots is increasing. 2022 was yet another record year for robot orders in North America. The robots are expanding from assembly to material handling and other fields. Automobile industry is still the largest purchaser of industrial robots. But interest in robots from other industries is growing
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/10ythci/north_american_companies_notch_another_record/j7zfnrl/
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Tooblicker t1_j80lp0m wrote
Declaring bankruptcy is next. My companies bankruptcy period is about to expire from the last time they installed automation that didn't work and they just put in a new bunch. I suspect government policy is more at hand here than actual gains
babyyodaisamazing98 t1_j7zo3yb wrote
Robots are just getting better. We’ve raised wages at my company 4 times in the last 2 years and we still haven’t been able to attract good people. Our yield from a human operator is about 80% and we can’t find anyone at any profitable price to work overnight or weekends.
We recently switched one of our machines to an automated robot instead. It has 95% yield and runs 24/7. It was available with a 4 week lead time and cost less than a years worker salary.
We need one engineer to maintain 6 robots.