Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Talldarkn67 t1_j8g72t7 wrote

Reply to comment by Maurauderr in 7 international companies have teamed with the EU to form the International Hyperloop Association, the industry's first trade body. by lughnasadh

The idea where building HSR everywhere will stop people from buying/driving cars, or using existing modes of transportation. Is not connected to reality. At least not in my experience of seeing HSR being built everywhere.

Take China for example. They have built the most extensive HSR network in the world. They go almost anywhere in China. Has it stopped people there from buying or driving cars? No, in fact China is the worlds largest car market. They literally buy more cars than any other country. I lived there for tens years and trust me, everyone that can afford to buy a car does. I had to drive from Suzhou to Shanghai many, many times for work. There is an HSR between the two but there was always traffic both ways. The highways were full of people driving instead of taking the HSR. Not because it’s cheaper or faster but because it’s more comfortable and convenient than HSR. Not to mention the fact that so few people use all the HSR they’ve built, that it loses hundreds of billions per year. It’s such a boondoggle that multiple heads of HSR in China have committed suicide. For longer trips most people prefer to take a plane and for shorter trips they more often than not drive. Also, they still have normal and cheaper trains which poorer locals usually take because they can’t afford to take the HSR.

That’s what I saw in China. You can confirm it all with casual research on the topic. I don’t think building HSR everywhere is the solution people think it is. At least that has not been the case for China. I doubt it would be much different elsewhere.

1

Maurauderr t1_j8gr6oy wrote

I never claimed that it would stop it. I claimed that it would reduce it, which it does. Something like induced demand on street just brings more people to take the car and does nothing against congestion etc. Giving a good rail system encourages people to take the train.

Also, in regard to your experience in China I did some digging and found this:

-2,1 billion rail passengers passengers (2013), growth of 5.5% per year between 2000 and 2013

-Bejing-Tianjin HSR: 16 million in first year (2008)

-Fares vary between 0.045$/passenger km for 200-250km/h and 0.77$/per passenger km for 300-350km/h (which actually is more expensive than Germany (0.34$/p.km) and France (0.24-0.31$/p.km) so the argument "it is only used by the poor kinda falls short)

-Rail passenger amount grew by 7.6% annually between 2008 & 2013

  • The two busiest lines carried 100 million each in 2014 -rail trips are almost double the amount than air trips in 2013

-for short trips (<300km) cars or busses are competitive because HSR stations are a decent way away from the town centre

  • Rail traffic grew by 39% between 2008 and 2014 while conventional traffic grew by 1.5%

-According to a survey from May 2013 the income range on the Changchun-Jilin line was at about 4,300$/m (70% reported an income of below 5,000$/m), Tianjin-Jinan between 6,700$ and 4,500$/m (50%reported an income of less than 5000$/m) so again.

  • The most profitable route (Shanghai-Beijing) brought in 1 billion$ in revenue in 2015

-Most people are actually not able to afford HSR in China (at least were in 2015)

-for trips of 500km or less air companies were forced to lower Fares or cancel flights because of the HSR

  • total income in 2021 was about 705 million USD (56.5% lower than 2019)

-Due to Covid 19 and strict lock downs profits plummeted 159% to a loss of 4.4 billion USD

-The HSR system has a total of 1.9 billion passengers annually.

For the sake of the argument I only focused myself on HSR and passenger travel in comparison.

References https://www.statista.com/topics/7534/high-speed-rail-in-china/#topicOverview

https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-high-speed-rail-development-worldwide

http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/EAP/China/high_speed-rail-%20in-china-en.pdf

Edit: When you said only poorer people use the HSR you were probably referring to the conventional rail (200-250km/h) and not 300-350km/h

3