Thanks for this question! I know it's on a lot of people's minds.

Freshman year first semester grades don't matter, period. They don't show either any relevant personality traits or any relevant academic ability. To look at the other side of the question: depending on how you define a hook, it can be essentially impossible to get in without one. Getting into an Ivy requires that you have some key, compelling, and unique elements. Those involve demonstrating an extreme level of persistence, exploring uncharted territory, and demonstrating curiosity about things that others dismiss.

For the second questions: if you look at the numbers, sure, absolutely. But the numbers don't tell the full story. First, people apply one ED school, and as many as 20 RD schools. Obviously, the ED numbers will be superficially higher. The only time ED helps is if you're punching a little below your weight, so to speak. So if you're someone with a strong chance at Harvard, and you apply ED to a slightly easier Ivy, they may be more inclined to grag you while they can. I've seen that with a few students who wanted a safer route.

The specific major matters in two ways. First, if it's something oversaturated, like biology, that can hurt. But more important than the major itself is your reason for choosing the major.

I recommend (as does the co-author of Invitation to the Ivies, Chelsey Snyder-Singh) that you have a specific Intellectual Mission Statement, which is similar to a professor's research area. That should be your reason for your major. So when asked "Why do you want to major in ___________," you can give your Intellectual Mission Statement as a reason.

Even better: talk about an independent major you want to design. This is something obvious to do for Duke, where independent majors through Program II are what they are about, but should be also considered for any college that allows them.

Thanks for your question!