Annual-Mud-987 t1_iqwsig6 wrote
Hi! You said your next book is about expecting the unexpected. Do you think the Covid pandemic was predictable? It sometimes feels so in the western world, but I know there have been other kinds of coronoviruses elsewhere in the world and things like Ebola as well.
UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwuywm wrote
It's a great question.
That we had a pandemic of a respiratory virus I think was predictable and predicted. In that sense we should have been better prepared.
The exact timing and type of pandemic, however, is harder to predict.
Probably the best analogy is to earthquakes. It is almost impossible to predict particular earthquakes on any useful timescale before they happen, but actually we can characterise how frequently earthquakes of particular size happen in the long run. So while we can't prepare for a particular event we can prepare for generalities. In Japan, for example, they have an annual disaster preparedness day precisely because they are aware that the risks of earthquakes (and other natural disasters) there is high. In the UK, our relatively lower risk means that it probably isn't worth while to undertake these preparations.
Annual-Mud-987 t1_iqwxnv1 wrote
Very interesting thanks! Does that mean that scientists are looking at other coronaviruses for the 'next pandemic' or are they looking at lots of different possible viruses? I guess it could be any of them.
UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwyke4 wrote
I'm certainly not at the forefront of these efforts, but we have scientists looking at all sorts of emerging threats. Bird flu, for example has been a popular potential candidate to make the jump from animals to humans and thence to have human to human transmission.
In the UK we have NERVTAG - The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group for example.
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