Forsaken-Indication t1_j5hc9hz wrote on January 23, 2023 at 12:29 AM

Reply to comment by jpercivalhackworth in [D] How to deal with COVID-19-era data for time series forecasting? by PM_ME_YOUR_GIGI

OP said it did. And that after Jan 2022 they see a return to some sort of baseline.

Trying to predict the next global pandemic as part of a product forecasting model seems pretty out-of-scope.

jpercivalhackworth t1_j5ib03x wrote on January 23, 2023 at 4:48 AM

Implicit in OP’s question is the apparent assumption that COVID is not a factor in projected demand. If that assumption is not true, then they may need to use the last 3 years as their baseline rather than trying to work around them.

Forsaken-Indication t1_j5jniqa wrote on January 23, 2023 at 2:10 PM

Either you're trolling or you need to reread what they said bud. They know that 2020 and 2021 are anomalous due to covid. And, as is the case across most markets, 2022 is a "new normal" year. Yes, obviously covid continues to effect things, but no it doesn't make sense to try to force a model to use anomalous data from during the pandemic stage of the covid now that we're beyond that stage.

jpercivalhackworth t1_j5kfcw6 wrote on January 23, 2023 at 5:18 PM

You are reading a lot into OP's question that I'm not seeing. Yes, COVID is anomalous, no it's not clear that for the purposes of modeling demand for an unidentified product that it makes sense to disregard it, adjust it, or perform so other adjustment. Depending on the what demand is being modeled COVID is still a factor.

You would do well to reread what they actually wrote and what I wrote. Nowhere did I say that they should predict the next pandemic (cool if they could, but not relevant here). Considering that COVID deaths appear to be climbing in parts of the world and we don't know where the OP is modeling for, there are a lot of unknowns to address before a meaningful answer can be arrived at.