Antnee83 t1_isysqk9 wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:12 PM

I've said it repeatedly: I think LePage will win by a cunt hair.

I straight up do not trust state-level polling. It's consistently really wrong; look at the margins of Collins' wins against what she was polled at. Sometimes double-digit differences.
The environment is not at all favorable to Democrat incumbents.

I think if he loses, it will be because of the Abortion pushback. That's the wildcard nationwide at the moment, and frankly I don't believe that the average voter has the memory span to stay that mad about something to make a difference.

I guess we'll see.

hike_me t1_isyu6vz wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:22 PM

Collins managed to get a significant number of split ticket voters. I don’t see LePage doing that.

Antnee83 t1_isyuthu wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:26 PM

That's true, but also not relevant to what I said.

She polled much much lower than her actual results. That holds true for a lot of republicans in many states. I think polling firms have yet to come to grips with the fact that there is a growing Shy Tory effect happening, and reweight their models accordingly.

metalandmeeples t1_isyzjqd wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:56 PM

One silver lining here is that aggregate sites like FiveThirtyEight still gave Collins a 41% chance of winning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/maine/

I assume this is likely because Collins has cross-party support due to the image of bipartisanship.

They give LePage 7-8% depending on the day you look despite there being no new polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/maine/

LePage is LePage and he has a support ceiling. He will win if Democrats don't have a strong turnout. Republicans will surely have a strong turnout.

Bywater t1_iszjik1 wrote on October 19, 2022 at 9:01 PM

You say that but the few I still talk to said they belive it is all rigged and are not going to bother.

Ok-Box8267 OP t1_isytfig wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:17 PM

That's true. Every time I look at the polls I remember how far ahead they had Gideon and a number of others in 2020. If he wins, I'm sure those cries of a "rigged" election will magically disappear into thin air.