Antnee83 t1_isyuthu wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:26 PM

Reply to comment by hike_me in Midterm by Ok-Box8267

That's true, but also not relevant to what I said.

She polled much much lower than her actual results. That holds true for a lot of republicans in many states. I think polling firms have yet to come to grips with the fact that there is a growing Shy Tory effect happening, and reweight their models accordingly.

metalandmeeples t1_isyzjqd wrote on October 19, 2022 at 6:56 PM

One silver lining here is that aggregate sites like FiveThirtyEight still gave Collins a 41% chance of winning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/maine/

I assume this is likely because Collins has cross-party support due to the image of bipartisanship.

They give LePage 7-8% depending on the day you look despite there being no new polls:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/maine/

LePage is LePage and he has a support ceiling. He will win if Democrats don't have a strong turnout. Republicans will surely have a strong turnout.

Bywater t1_iszjik1 wrote on October 19, 2022 at 9:01 PM

You say that but the few I still talk to said they belive it is all rigged and are not going to bother.