gulfofmainah t1_ishfw1f wrote on October 16, 2022 at 12:37 AM

Reply to comment by Bywater in Alaska's cancellation of the snow crab season offers a grave, potential prediction for Maine's lobster industry. by combatbydesign

Well thank you for showing your maturity by making false assumptions on my brain and habits and I’m happy to know your high school based report on a study that is 40 years old is more well rounded and researched than current ongoing studies let’s look at a study done by UMaine scientists. https://www.pressherald.com/2022/06/12/umaine-scientists-see-long-term-hope-for-lobster-fishery-despite-warming-waters/

It lays out because the Gulf of Maine has unique currents, Maines abundance of tidal rivers and the large tides in the Bay of Fundy and large differences in salinity levels across water columns that the average bottom temperature even in the summer is in the mid to upper 50s which is 10 degrees cooler than the temperature known to cause stress on a lobster. Kathleen Reardon, senior lobster scientist for the Maine Department of Marine Resource has stated even under the worst case scenario we are 50 plus years away from reaching a 68 degree ocean floor temperature in the summer and that warming surface temperatures have created ideal conditions for young larval lobsters.

The full report done by Umaine

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14778

stating the “Thermally mediated dilution hypothesis” which shows how the surface warming in the gulf does not translate to quickly warming ocean floor temperatures (ocean floor being where lobsters inhabit) in the gulf of Maine due to the several factors stated earlier. Now I’m sure Cousteau was using the best information available at the time to draw his conclusions but like all science it has to be constantly reviewed and with the current information we have the worst case view is 50 years before we enter into the conditions that won’t be ideal for lobsters.

It’s also worth adding that in the 80s when talk of the lobster stock collapsing soon to today in 2022 the estimated population of lobsters in Maine has increased 515% and the Maine Department of Marine Resources and NOAA do lots of hands on work with lobsterman, state run and federally run boats to reach these estimates each year. So while you may find my take comical several scientists and the Maine Department of Marine Resources who have vast amounts of information and combined hundreds if not thousands of hours of research each year don’t agree with your assumption.

Bywater t1_isiff6c wrote on October 16, 2022 at 5:52 AM

"Still, projections are never perfect, he points out. While the projections Le Bris used captured the differences in tidal mixing, they are based on standard atmospheric effects on ocean temperature and do not reflect changing ocean current patterns in the Gulf of Maine, which Wahle said are harder to model." “I’m not sure the oceanographic forecasting is at a place yet that can project what those conditions are going to look like with respect to the relative strength of the Labrador Current and the Gulf Stream, but to the extent those trends continue, we may be seeing a worsening effect,” he said.

I mean hey, I really hope that they are right and that this unprecedented warming of the Gulf of Maine and death of micro biome won't drive lobstering offshore here. But considering how we are seeing it everywhere else the idea [that the currents that are all going to shit] (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse) are going to save the day might not be the best gamble. "Particularly considering how much of an effect rising temperatures not only affect biological processes but also reduce water density and thereby stratification and circulation, which affect organismal dispersal and nutrient transport. Precipitation, salinity and winds also affect stratification, mixing and circulation." What we are seeing is one of those "snowball" effects, the water temperatures rise, the microorganisms die and change the density of the water, affecting current and continuing to make things worse. That zooplankton and phytoplankton are foundational to life on this planet, when they are gone and the oceans stop acting as a raditor because of it, well, "thanks for all the fish"... That was Cousteaus unheeded warning.