Reply to your edit about Maine’s thresholds. They could do that but it would have to be state-only money. The traditional non-expansion population is covered 69.5: 30.5, federal dollars to state dollars. The expansion population was covered at a higher rate to encourage states to expand so we’re getting more like 90/10 federal to state. I was a wonk in Colorado before moving here so I’m less versed on MaineCare but expanding eligibility to cover the gap would either require a state plan adjustment, an advanced planning document, or another document to continue to ensure federal financial participation.

TLDR: to cover these people the state would need a disproportionate amount of money due to which FMAP these folks would fall into. Also, we would have to ask the feds usually.