themollusk t1_iw7aca8 wrote on November 13, 2022 at 2:45 PM

Reply to comment by im_at_work_now in Election Update -Pennsylvania - Great take for the state of PA by TheUltimateSalesman

I agree that the overwhelming majority of libertarian voters are just republicans in disguise, but:

Control of the Senate is no longer on the line with the Georgia runoff. It's going to determine if it's a 50/50 split or 51/49, both in favor of the Dems.

And Kemp isn't on the ticket to help Walker.

Those two things could head to significantly lower enthusiasm in the R vote.

ycpa68 t1_iw7miy4 wrote on November 13, 2022 at 4:15 PM

I'd bet more libertarian voters just don't show up. My theory is the "Libertarians" that are actually Rs in disguise always fill out the ballot for the R when push comes to shove. Then there are true believers. They hate both major parties and won't show up in a runoff. Finally, there are the disillusioned Rs. If you poke around /r/neoliberal you'll find a huge pipeline of people, myself included, who grew up in conservative areas, became disillusioned with Republicans but still were convinced Democrats are evil, made a stop off at libertarianism, realized democrats aren't evil, and became moderate Democrats.