kidneycat t1_j363dmt wrote on January 6, 2023 at 7:51 AM

Reply to comment by Super_C_Complex in Are sex offenders required to notify neighbors in PA? by mama-moth

Weird take. The guy convicted of two counts of assaulting a minor under the age of 13 is less likely to assault OPs kid than OP?

TrueLoveEditorial t1_j36fx80 wrote on January 6, 2023 at 10:40 AM

The majority of crimes on children are committed by a family member or close friend of the family. Stranger Danger is overblown. Mom would be better off keeping a closer eye on Uncle Bob, who likes to tickle children past the time they say stop, or honorary grandma Millie, who invites kids over for "special time."

Super_C_Complex t1_j36i0ev wrote on January 6, 2023 at 11:07 AM

> The guy convicted of two counts of assaulting a minor under the age of 13 is less likely to assault OPs kid than OP?

Statistically speaking, yes.

Statistics don't care about the individuals though.

bitterbeerfaces t1_j36p3j7 wrote on January 6, 2023 at 12:27 PM

That would depend if the guy convicted of assault, went after strangers or children known to him. Also if the children he assaulted were related to him.

There are some very good (ie well researched and empirically supported) tools that are used to gauge the risk of sexual offending in the future. Static-99r and Abel screening are the two leading tools in this area.