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[deleted] t1_j4dy3w1 wrote

Reply to comment by Unique-Public-8594 in RI Real Estate by DIMINISHED_VALUE

A van line would be at the center of who is moving where and why. I know it disrupts the “RI is in permanent decline” narrative, but it’s valid info.

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[deleted] t1_j4e0w4r wrote

That’s like saying if Bank of America sees major increases in credit card spending, it’s not useful because there are other banks. United is a major mover; it’s a significant data source.

The census happened three years ago. Everything that has happened since then has not been captured. Whereas United is a business that collects stats every year.

It also comports with the data we are seeing on housing. There’s little to no inventory because the demand is so high. That’s not what happens in shrinking dying places.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_j4e0nvk wrote

But United only counts who moved in using United. It doesn’t count how many moved out. They aren’t looking at those who moved using other companies and where they went.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_j4dz48l wrote

Census is more reliable. It ranks RI 32nd.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/fastest-growing-states

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[deleted] t1_j4dza79 wrote

Census data is three years out of date now.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_j4g02ig wrote

Ok but these United Van Lines statistics have been discussed here before and ultimately determined to be useless numbers.

For Rhode Island to have magically jumped from 32nd to third since 2021 (when the trends show retiring Baby Boomers and wfh folks moving south and southwest), I doubt it.

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[deleted] t1_j4hnbft wrote

You’re ignoring all the businesses in and around Boston in health care, where WFH isn’t an option. You’re also ignoring the continued influx of people into greater Boston, which our entire state is basically part of now.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_j4hod4u wrote

And the next census may prove that but this data from United Van Lines is not a reliable source.

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[deleted] t1_j4hpj6e wrote

Again, it is a reliable source. Most projections are made from data of market participants, and unless you’re arguing that UVL is committing financial fraud, their trends data is valid.

The only way your narrative would make sense is if UVL is an outlier and every other hauling line has seen a collapse of 90% or more, which is highly unlikely.

The data is also substantiated by looking all around us. Regions that are in severe decline like Detroit, Toledo or Cleveland don’t have $500K 1,200 sq foot houses, new condo projects going up, demand for more building permits, construction of new schools, gentrification of old neighborhoods in decline, etc.

Our version of Toledo, Pawtucket, is booming.

One of the charming and annoying things about this state is its inability to accept change, and this data shows clear changes in the trajectory of the state.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_j4hqcud wrote

And maybe you are right.

Money Magazine sees it differently:

https://money.com/cities-with-the-most-new-homes/

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[deleted] t1_j4hqou1 wrote

I just saw the headline and chuckled, because RI has almost no new homes, part of the thing driving up prices.

But the same is true of Chicago and Cleveland, and yet plenty of affordable housing exists in those places.

Why? Because people are moving here in droves, but not to Chicago or Cleveland.

RI definitely needs to build more homes. Providence mayor Smiley made that a centerpiece of his campaign. The reason we need more homes built? Demand. The reason there’s demand? People want to live here.

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