This sums up more eloquently than I could why and how Trafalgar polls are, to put it politely, bullshit that I don't concern myself with.

As far as what washington is, it's a democrat plurality saddled with a few highly reactive conservative counties. By highly reactive, I mean until recently they had elected a guy that was literally planning and organizing domestic terrorism under the guise of a "holy war." Of course, people found out and the reds decided they weren't that red. There's also been some good reporting on the QAnon crazies that tried to take over Sequim, if you are interested it's pretty easy to look up.

So yeah, Smiley could get elected, and like when Matt Shea was elected, that would be a tragedy for the entire state, but one we'll endure and overcome.