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Alt-One-More t1_ixn4qzn wrote

What you're looking for is in the article linked:

"Approximately 1.6% of individuals in the United States will develop pancreatic cancer during their lifetime.1 With this relatively low prevalence, even an ideal screening test with 99% sensitivity and 99% specificity would yield 1000 false-positive results if applied to 100 000 patients. These false-positive results would require subsequent diagnostic evaluation and accrue additional complications, costs, and patient distress that would cause the risks of screening to outweigh any potential benefit."

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_Oman t1_ixn6ufq wrote

The simple version: If the screening were perfect, it would help immensely. When screening isn't perfect and the occurrence rate is is low, screenings can create worse overall outcomes for the general population.

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PolarSquirrelBear t1_ixnh2ty wrote

It’s why they won’t test for herpes unless you’re symptomatic. There are so many false-positives you would completely change your life around it, with a possibility that you don’t actually have it.

But with the prevalence of it, you can pretty much just assume you have it anyways.

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whatkindofred t1_ixpm12e wrote

If almost everyone has it then where do all the false positives come from?

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