sit_down_man OP t1_jeejl9e wrote
“Baltimore’s flagship community violence intervention program, Safe Streets, has led to reductions in nonfatal shootings and homicides, according to a Johns Hopkins analysis of nearly 15 years of data.
In the neighborhoods served by the five Safe Streets sites that have been open four years or more, the analysis indicated there was an average of 22% fewer homicides than predicted. And across all sites, Safe Streets was associated with a 23% reduction in nonfatal shootings, researchers found.”
There have been a lot of people in this sub very critical of any approach to violence reduction that strays from dumping money into more police, so I’m curious how people feel now. Thoughts?
Omnimark t1_jefogv8 wrote
My only thought is how messy the data are. As they mention in the study and the article, things like ghost guns, police mistrust, and the pandemic have made things particularly difficult to discern a baseline. So it's worth nothing that 22% fewer homicides "than predicted" doesn't necessarily mean that Safe Streets reduced homicides by 22%. We don't really know how effective it's been. But it does seem clear that there is a reduction, it's not just a displacement, its a reduction. So that's great!
DONNIENARC0 t1_jeekvby wrote
I'd honestly be skeptical any singular program or policy could reduce gun violence in any major city by over 20%. If it's truly that effective it should be a nationwide model, especially considering the relatively low cost. 20% is a pretty staggering number for something like this.
YoYoMoMa t1_jeem3ti wrote
Skepticism is healthy, but I think at the minimum this means we should fund them a ton more. They are so cheap compared to cops.
DONNIENARC0 t1_jeem7yo wrote
Agreed, expand it and see if you can maintain the results. Other cities should be chomping at the bit to emulate this, too, I'd think.
sit_down_man OP t1_jeela88 wrote
Are you implying Hopkins researchers fudged the numbers? If anything, my gut instinct would be that any study affiliated with Hopkins would be biased in the opposite direction so I’m not sure I agree with that.
[deleted] t1_jeeo2u0 wrote
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z3mcs t1_jeeqs4y wrote
Saw this in another comment thread the other day:
>People are not rational and they don't trust experts.
We probably all do it, but it's interesting to see where people go "trust the experts here" vs questioning things.
[deleted] t1_jeer5lh wrote
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z3mcs t1_jeeuxz0 wrote
Hey, I agree with researching things. I just think it's kind of funny when it was like "Why are people trippin because some company wants to dump some waste in Baltimore? Don't be irrational, trust the experts!" And then now the tenor will be ....ehhh, not so fast, lets research.
Like I said in my initial post, we all do it, and I'm not pointing to you or saying you made that original post that got upvoted, cause you didn't, I'm just saying we all have those Ice Cube "first I was like....then I was like" moments, like so.
[deleted] t1_jeew4sy wrote
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DONNIENARC0 t1_jeelsnj wrote
Not really, moreso that there may be some external factors that may have been overlooked
I hope that isn't the case, anyone who dislikes cheap and wildly effective violence reduction strategies would be insane.
A number like 20% on something like this is just pretty hard to digest.
todareistobmore t1_jegk2sq wrote
> If it's truly that effective it should be a nationwide model
I don't think this follows at all. Whether/how well it would work outside of dense urban neighborhoods seems to be a totally separate (and possibly more difficult) question than whether/how well it works here.
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