Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Hreed1 t1_iu8v6d4 wrote

Reply to comment by brightbehaviorist in Ever felt unsafe walking along the streets of Baltimore late at night? by agentxstealth

Brilliant points all around.

As you pointed out, this app completely hides the fact that the vast overwhelming majority of walking trips happen without any incident. Therefore, any incidents reported appear more like noise in the full-context of the data, rendering the predictive power of the model useless, and consequently rendering this app obsolete at the start.

1

agentxstealth OP t1_iu914o5 wrote

Many studies have shown that past crimes are indicative of future crimes happening at similar locations in the future, which is what inspired me to build the app. Hence the model definitely has some predictive value and is not obsolete at all, imo.

2

Hreed1 t1_iu95c5m wrote

Okay, but HOW MUCH predictive power?

“Some predictive value” is no different from “almost no predictive value at all”

Can this app accurately predict whether or not someone will have an incident on any given path? Of course not, bc if the data was that granular the police would just intervene and prevent the crime from happening in the first place - and of course, this is ridiculous.

The amount of data you would need to prove that simply does not exist.

And if you think simply saying “many studies” is convincing, then you are sorely mistaken. Aren’t you trying to promote this app? Are you really seeking to make people safer or is this just a cash grab, profiting off of some people’s innate fears?

1

agentxstealth OP t1_iu96n8f wrote

I did extensive market research before pursuing this idea, and seeing all the studies on the correlation is what inspired me to build it. In fact similar apps also use a similar principle to calculate areas where future crimes are likely to occur. An example of such an app is WalkSafe+. It's your choice if you want to believe that.

You're right the app cannot predict whether someone will have an incident, but it definitely lowers the chance a considerable amount. Hence "some predictive value" is most certainly different from "no predictive at all." It's your choice if you want to download the app though and don't think it's benefitting you. I don't think you speak for everyone though.

0

Hreed1 t1_iu9sb9a wrote

Very unconvincing.

-What is the predictive power? Precision and Specificity, confidence intervals?

“definitely lowers the chance a considerable amount”

Explain. How did you come to this conclusion? What are you even considering is “a considerable amount”?

Can you even currently calculate the correlation between your “danger score” and predicted crime?

You’re selling this app as safety, a mistake many apps and service solutions offer. But this app does not actual make people safer. You haven’t demonstrated this and it doesn’t look like you intend to. It looks like you don’t care if this app actual makes people safer - just worried about the “market” and the download rate. Which is sorta okay…..(because anyone relying purely on an app to be safe is insane in the first place)

You’re right, this app isnt for me, and idk who it’s for. I wish you luck in hopes that this improves and that you really rethink your strategy. Nevertheless, making an app is a big task - so congrats on getting this far.

1