Bank assessments or city assessments? City assessments are very typically below market sale rate (which is what bank assessments look at).

It’s crazy. I was looking at a house all the way out in Medway. Nice little two bedroom. They want $414k, okay fine. Then I looked at the price history - the house was purchased for half that in 2019.

My income has gone up a little since 2019 but not enough to keep with with these prices.

This is slightly extreme but the premise isn’t uncommon.

If you bought a $500,000 house a few years ago you’d prefer the city thinks it’s only worth $450,000 because that’s what you’ll be taxed on, but you’d like to think the value is increasing and you could sell it for $550,000 tomorrow.

The city’s assessment is pretty much always less than sales comps.

One of Trumps lawsuits is based on an elaborate scheme of basically this very thing.

That's mostly about city and county assessors trying to avoid getting yelled at by their constituents. All the political incentives are in place for towns to under-assess properties if they can get away with it.

Housing is looked at as a commodity now and not just by real estate investors anymore, everyone is realizing it's a safe place to invest and it's hedge against inflation. You can leverage someone else's money(banks) to buy something of full value in cash you do not currently have, can't do that with anything else. The monthly mortgage payment in 2023 money is going to be the same in 2035 except it's going to feel like a lot less after another decade plus of inflation. It sucks for regular people just trying to get a place to live where they want to live and work. Big businesses are renting in residential areas, Airbnb is widely used now in neighborhoods. Housing has fundamentally changed and many are predicting that individuals won't be able to buy property in the near future. Also there won't be another crash like 07-08 banks are making damn sure your qualified for the loans they give out, they aren't going to get caught holding the bag again, notice any foreclosures lately? Me either. This is the exact same thing I heard in 2013 guess what there are many many ways to buy besides conventional, if you want to own a home stop waiting for market corrections or interest rates to come down, find a deal that works for you and take it. If you can't shop on the MLS then don't there's other ways, I don't shop at whole foods but I still eat.

Build build build, NIMBYs can get bent.

Yeah I’m good, that’s too much.

12 story buildings aren’t livable in the same way that 4-6 story ones are. Stick those directly on top of T stations and keep them TF away from everywhere else.

5 stories by right within a walk shed of a half mile from T stops in the direct metro (Boston plus inner suburbs) is a good starting place. Livability should be a key consideration in constructing neighborhoods of higher density.

I’d honestly be ok with urban renewal of triple decker neighborhoods to tear down those rotting pieces of shit (as a former triple decker resident, aka rat grove).

Increases your buying power and reduces demand at the same time!

See the second sentence you quoted.

There was a news piece a while back about boomers being upset that there were no smaller apartments and homes in their towns that they could down size into.

And I got to literally laugh out loud at them facing the consequences of their own actions and voting behavior. Before I was sad again about how fucked the housing market is for everyone.

The other issue with this is that because they can't downsize they will stay in housing that is too big. This will keep homes from reaching the market...and the cycle worsens.

“Let them eat cake neighborhood character”

Bought a condo (converted 4 unit apartment building, nothing remotely fancy) in 2019 after scraping together a down payment. Unit next to mine sold to a boomer couple, who live on the cape, for their late-20s kids to live in. I got in a fight with the mom because she kept calling the building an investment... I had to repeatedly say "This is my home, I live here" to convince her I was much more invested in its upkeep than she would ever be. The "housing as investment" people can get fucked. Housing is a human right and they are the problem.

Not to mention the opportunity cost of letting a downpayment sit there in cash for years while you "wait it out".

This right here. I’m waiting for people to leave because for the last 10 years I get to the point where I finally have 20% saved and then house prices go up by just that much more. I had my fingertips touching a house in 2020 and then I lost my job. I’m thankful it happened before the sale but I’m still bitter about it.

Interestingly, my former coworker who lives in nowheresville Texas just accepted a fully remote programming job for a MA hospital. I imagine no one in MA could afford to take the role for the salary she’s being paid (def <$100k/yr). But I guess it’s a win win for them. And yes, that leaves the rest of us screwed or needing to move and reliant on fully remote work.

And who owns Blackrock? Pension plans that will need to pay out or is there another major generational asset holder I’m missing?

Rent it to who? Pay property taxes with what? And those children will be selling it to whom? The point is that demand could very well dry up considerably and it will become a buyers market.

Depends mostly spoon

No, but I sold that house at the end of 2020. It has not appreciated 50%.

I bought it for 375k, did a DIY renovation and spent 20k, listed for 470k, sold it for 500k. But it was a hoarder house when I bought it, there were dead mice all over the house.

Since I sold it I think it’s worth slightly less. And the person who bought I from me had an insanely low interest rate like 2% with no down payment so they didn’t care they were paying more.